Paul Murphy

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Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville and an associate editor of the Financial Times. He joined the FT in London in 2006 as development editor of, concentrating on the expansion of the online business. Prior to that, he served as the Guardian’s financial editor for seven years. He has also held senior positions in business journalism at the Sunday Business newspaper and the Daily Telegraph. Murphy is a graduate of the London School of Economics.

“Is Father Christmas real?” and other musings by UBS

Oldham, Lancs, in the case of this correspondent. Read more

Equities soar. Have some Albert

One of the many lessons from equity investing during Japan’s Lost Decade is that in a secular bear market hope is a killer. In a secular bear market hope should only be flirted with briefly during cyclical upturns, but it must be ruthlessly rejected as the cycle turns. In a secular bear market being wedded to hope destroys portfolios as the bear slashes to ribbons the hard-fought gains of the previous bull market. Gains that have taken years to accumulate are gone in months. One key measure we monitor informs us conclusively: we are now in a bear market.

The ‘key measure’ SocGen strategist Albert Edwards is referring to here is one of six models developed by his quant-ist colleague, Andrew Lapthorne. And, in chart form, it looks like this: Read more

Fancy some $$$$ raw? Best follow Markets Live at 11am

No hints in advance. We’re still doing the checking calls.

But we are pretty sure we will have details of a rather sizeable US takeover during FT Alphaville’s regular Markets Live session on Thursday. Read more

Note the frightening effects of financial glyphosate*


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Morgan Stanley: ‘Buy! Buy! Buy! Buy! Buy!’

Corr! It’s almost like Teun Draaisma, FTAV’s favourite quant during the proper crisis, was suddenly back in action.

Clock this from Morgan Stanley’s Graham Secker and Matthew Garman: Read more

“Overall, we think this global bull market is ageing but not finished”

A calming checklist from Citi’s Robert Buckland. Click to enlarge…

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Snap Markets Live — starting shortly

Footsie smacked; currencies are going loopy…

Click here. Read more

Finally, some action from the Finanstilsynet…

That’s the Danish financial regulator, of course, which has belatedly closed what had become a European scam-central for listed small-caps.

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Smoking African Pot

We should know better than to write about a company that currently ranks as the No1 topic of investor bulletin board discussion in the UK, but here goes…

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A sovereign legal scorecard

First let’s start with a scatter chart, courtesy of Charles Robertson at Renaissance Capital. Click to enlarge…

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Beyond corporate finance 101

Fascinating discussion here from the Bank of England’s Andy Haldane on the stresses and strains facing shareholder-controlled corporate entities pretty much everywhere.

A quick taste:

These criticisms have deep micro-economic roots and thick macro-economic branches. Some incremental change is occurring to trim these branches. But it may be time for a more fundamental re-rooting of company law if we are to tackle these problems at source. The stakes – for companies, the economy and wider society – could scarcely be higher.

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The FT newsroom — braced

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More on Pluto-esque gullibility

So yes, we’re glutton for inter-planetary punishment. But step back and down for a moment from that dwarf sphere at the edge of our solar system that may or may not be pink, to a (relatively) pint-sized example of how those interested in the heavens seem to swallow any old crap.

Consider Comet 67P.

And consult the BBC… Read more

Brace yourself. The next Gate Ventures episode airs tomorrow

One day, someone might pen a musical farce, destined for a premier West End stage, featuring a geriatric lovie whose listed theatre production company is hijacked by mad Chinese investors intent on turning his corporate baby into some sort of escape hatch for businessmen fleeing the Peoples’ Republic.

In the meantime, Gate Ventures seems to have decided to go ahead and try this for real. Read more

The evisceration of one Mike Rees

In one chart. Click to enlarge.

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Ooma, oops!

Not all US tech IPOs head directly to the moon…

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NASA’s Pluto fraud, conducted in plain sight

You can Google it yourself — “NASA Pluto – images” — or click below…

Not one of those Plutos is real. Every single image has been doctored. Here are the most recent real picture of Pluto from the New Horizons probe, which arrived at NASA HQ in black and white… Read more

“Tamayo…chewed up or ate post-it notes or napkins after using them to show the stockbroker the ticker symbol…”

It happened (allegedly) below the clock, atop the information booth at New York’s Grand Central Station…

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Greece is gimped, and yet the euro rots…

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We’ve gone Camping…

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What to wear at Camp Alphaville

Well, you won’t need your wellies. Here’s the forecast for Wednesday…

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Yay! The Sand Hill Exchange is back

Despite having been shuttered, brutally, a month ago by the SEC, a Silicon Valley start-up that tried to offer trading in derivatives linked to private SV companies like Uber and Snapchat is suddenly back in business. But there’s a catch.

Sand Hill Exchange had wanted to be the new Wall Street; instead it will now settle for being the new fantasy Las Vegas. Read more

Queen plays Berlin – offering an obvious caption comp…

Two fab, access-all-areas tickets to Camp Alphaville on Wednesday available to the winner here.

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Wanna show us your artistic side?

At the up and coming Camp Alphaville festival (July 1, HAC, City of London, it should be in your diary), we’ll have one of these…

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Kirk Kerkorian, 1917-2015

Kerkor “Kirk” Kerkorian

Is Bloomberg digitally drunk? (updated)

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A late entry in the punny Greek headline comp…

It’s from Michael Hartnett, of BoA Merrill Lynch, but you probably would have guessed that if asked.

My Big, Fat Greek Dreading (and other risks)
To the upside: concerns over Greece prove misplaced, investors over-hedge Fed risks, passage of TPP boost investor & corporate confidence, tech’s creative disruption = higher PE, lower CPI. To the downside: inflation surprises to upside.

Hartnett doesn’t have much to add specifically on Greece, other than this intriguing chart. Read more

Information for Camp Alphaville ticket holders only

Just a quick note.

There’s a pre-Camp dinner at the lovely Bleeding Heart restaurant on the evening of June 30.

Early purchasers of Camp Alphaville tickets have been offered places — on the understanding that the dinner is primarily aimed at those flying in to London for the event… Read more

It seems it’s time to get un-bored again with Greece

A flurry of fresh headlines: Greek stocks pummelled; “Air of unreality” as IMF quits talks. A seemingly credible report from Germany’s Bild saying Angela has resigned herself to possible Grexit.

There was that aggressive Giavazzi op-ed in the FT.

Oh, and 10,000 Greeks have taken their own lives over the past five years of crisis, according to Theodoros Giannaros, a public hospital governor, whose own son committed suicide after losing his job.

Maybe this is the end, end game. Read more

Another AIM laughing stock (updated)

This is a placeholder post while we wait for “news” from Gate Ventures, a curious company with a £35k investment in a West End show, an £80m market cap and a bunch of seemingly enthusiastic Chinese shareholders invested via Tortola registered entities…

After the latest crazy share price spike, the stock was suspended on Thursday pending an announcement.

Update: the news is now out, but we see little reason to temper our original headline… Read more