Donald Trump in July vs. Donald Trump today: pic.twitter.com/SEvxJ9vBDJ
— Scott Bixby (@scottbix) September 23, 2016
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Our league hasn’t been going all that long, but it seems like some congratulations are in order. Specifically self-congratulations.
Despite some trouble at the start of the season with a small number of bad actors, we have managed to clean up the system. Everything is in order. Everyone is on net positive points. Everyone got a net positive score last weekend. Everything is ok. The market works. Read more
Is the central bank in the business of lending bank reserves for final and absolute settlement purposes, or is it now in the business of lending safe assets like Tbills for final and absolute settlement purposes? Read more
This is the FT's business and economics news podcast produced in New York. FT hosts and guests discuss new topics each week - and with more wonkiness, humour and irreverence than you'll find anywhere else.
One of the challenges of understanding the consequences of Brexit is the apparent lack of precedent for such an event. But this pre-supposes that only the recent past is relevant. If instead we use the full sweep of history, then we can find the obvious precedent of the English Reformation that started in 1534.
… the “Brexit” of 1534 was far from straightforward, and nor did it stop conflict within the country. As for the economic consequences, GDP per capita barely changed for one hundred years after before falling sharply during the Civil War. It took colonial expansion, notably to India, and later in the industrial revolution in the 1700s for growth to really pick up in England.
– That’s from Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez, with a bonus chart too. Read more
The landmark securitisation of UK “peer-to-peer” consumer loans highlights a structural advantage banks have against their fintech rivals Read more
Admiralty law is old, fun and messy.
The order of claim seniority is cargo, crew, supplier, mortgage holder. What is unique is a claim against a company or vessel can be enforced against a different asset or bank account. This allows creditors greater scope but also can generate a blizzard of litigation.
In a typical but very simplified case: 1) a mortgage holder receives a judgment in local court for non payment; 2) checks to see where any debtor vessels are steaming; 3) goes to that port with a lawyer and replacement crew; 4) court accepts the judgment; 5) port sheriff, lawyer, and replacement crew “physically” arrest the vessel, pay off the existing crew, cover supplier claims, and deliver the cargo if the vessel is not empty. Problem is the mortgage holder now owns a ship, and that costs cash money every day. If the vessel is not marketable, there usually is an “as is” auction under port sheriff supervision.
Elsewhere on Friday,
– How Hampton Creek sold Silicon Valley on a fake-mayo miracle.
– Boy meets girl, boy gives girl inside information, SEC says.
– Of Leon Cooperman: “The question is not only whether he can prevail against the SEC but also whether he can calm anxious investors.”
– Today in disruption and cow dung economics: “In the past, people only used urine and dung, and you needed to know somebody in a gaushaala (cow shelter), to get them. But who has the time these days, especially in the cities? So what we have done is just made it more accessible, in a more variety of products, in these busy cities.” Read more
A ‘state-sponsored actor’ steals information from more than 500m Yahoo users Read more
The tendency toward restriction that runs through the tone of the presentation seems to me to be quite problematic. It seems to me to support a wide variety of misguided policy impulses.
–Larry Summers, Jackson Hole 2005
You might think Summers had changed his mind in the eleven years since he called Raghuram Rajan a “Luddite” for daring to suggest the financial system had gotten riskier since the 1970s thanks to competition and the rise of performance-based pay. After all, in a new paper, Summers and graduate student Natasha Sarin not only cited Rajan’s work approvingly, they concluded lenders are still too vulnerable to panics. You would, however, be wrong. Read more
In the brave new world of machine learning, big data and artificial intelligence, no good deed will go unnoticed and no bad deed will go unpunished. Or so at least the dream goes.
Anyone who hasn’t read the Securities and Exchange Commission’s complaint against Leon Cooperman and his hedge funds should do so ASAP, because it is a heckuva story.
Here’s a quick summary of the allegations, which Cooperman and his funds categorically deny: Read more
That is, by diluting if not outright abandoning the quantitative/ balance sheet expansion aspect of its policy with a move to QQE with yield control has the BoJ admitted that the current stage of central bank action is nearing its limits?
Citi’s Buiter et al seem to think so: Read more
– Bernanke and Beckworth on the BoJ’s new yield control policy.
– Branko Milanovic on how income inequality is cyclical.
– Lorcan on Target2, redux.
– Tony Yates burning through RSI to Tweet-critique Romer.
– How to hide it, back inside the offshore wealth management world.
– And persuasion in a post truth world. Read more
Dissenting central bank trio votes for an immediate lift Read more
A cryptic Tweet from Iron-Man Elon Musk stating “Turns out MCT can go well beyond Mars, so will need a new name…” delighted the tech/science internet community when it was posted on Sept 17. Read more
If you picked up the papers this morning you might have seen an interesting story about “a renowned conservationist” and an alleged £60m tax fraud. Here’s part of The Times’ take on it:
A renowned conservationist took part in a £60 million tax fraud marketed as a means of tackling climate change, a court was told yesterday. Read more
The Fed is expected not to raise rates at the conclusion of Wednesday’s meeting, but that doesn’t mean the FOMC statement or the subsequent presser will be uneventful.
On the table are a change in the trajectory of future rate hikes, a signal that the next hike is very likely in November or December of this year, and changes to the Fed’s estimates for US growth. Read more
Like the movement of a currency in 30 seconds time, The Mail’s editorial stance on binary-option trading is impossible to predict. Read more
– Kuroda’s conundrum
– The BoE on the unintended consequences of higher capital requirements
– Tyler Cowen on Dodd-Frank
– And Tim Duy on how the dots outlived their usefulness when they signaled a pace of policy tightening that never happened Read more
Elizabeth Warren tells John Stumpf he should be ‘criminally investigated’ over phantom accounts Read more
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