The robot revolution may be exaggerated, globalisation edition

The developed world is not reshoring or automating half as quickly as the technologists would have us believe, and on the macro level the impact is likely to be insignificant for many years yet.  Read more

So, when equity markets really do reverse…

Will US QE prove to have been more toxic than Japanese QE? SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne think’s it’s a no-brainer, brandishing this chart on Monday. Read more

The rise of the angry voter, charted

It’s a bigly trend with enormous consequences for fiscal and monetary policy. But the rise of voter rage in advanced democracies is a hard narrative to chart, what with the lack of data and the abundance of anecdote. However, this seems a pretty decent attempt:

Screen Shot 2016-10-24 at 13.03.20 Read more

Markets Live: Monday, 24th October, 2016

Live markets commentary from 

Further reading


– Gavyn Davies: It’s the demography, stupid!

– Meanwhile in China: “Best known as the country’s anticorruption agency, the commission has lately assumed a growing role as political inquisitor, investigating the loyalty and commitment of cadres to Mr. Xi and his agenda, while cementing the commission’s role as his chief political enforcer.”

– An Elon Musk AMA.

– Bengt Holmström and the black box of the firm.

– And Cliff Asness: Hedge funds search for their real killers. Read more

FirstFT: AT&T battle brews, ‘nasty’ women, May’s Brexit cards

AT&T faces struggle with US regulators over proposed takeover of Time Warner Read more

Thought for the weekend

In an aside, Mr. Scaramucci compared the DOL rule to an 1857 Supreme Court ruling which held that African Americans were not U.S. citizens.

“It’s about like the Dred Scott decision,” Mr. Scaramucci said. Read more

About the current outage

If all you are getting is a big fat “Sorry” from your FT subscription right now, there’s a reason for that. Read more

The de-monetisation of the economy started with coffee

Starbucks, the mobile payments and data pioneer, is going to know your coffee routine so well that in three years time you won’t even have to do anything to ensure your coffee is ready and waiting for you.  Read more

Have we crossed the inflation Rubicon?

From tech billionaires going around recommending loss-leading tech companies finally start raising prices and Spotify looking to restrict free streaming, *something* seems to be happening.
 Read more

Markets Live: Friday, 21st October, 2016

Live markets commentary from 

“Mr Ambani, I’d just like to compliment your capex… sorry, I meant, smile”

It has been suggested before that there “are only two Indians for whom Mumbai’s great and good will turn up en masse and on time. One is whoever is the sitting prime minister. The other is Mukesh Ambani.”

And earlier this week at a talk in south Mumbai this blogger was part of an effort to prove that true. Well, the “on time” bit at least, we’re still working on the “great and good” thing.

It was quite the spectacle. Read more

Podcast: our chat with Sebastian Mallaby on Alan Greenspan

Alan Greenspan’s reputation over five decades in public life has gone through wilder swings than the value of technology stocks or Las Vegas real estate during his tenure as Federal Reserve chairman. Sebastian Mallaby has produced the definitive account of Greenspan’s life, career, and the context in which he operated: The Man Who Knew. Mallaby recently came by the FT office to record a wide-ranging conversation about this accomplishment. Read more

FT Opening Quote: BAT creates tobacco giant

BAT creates tobacco giant, IHG revenues flat and golden numbers at Acacia. FT Opening Quote, with commentary by City Editor Jonathan Guthrie, is your early Square Mile briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here. Read more

Further reading


– The (coy?) reemergence of Steve Cohen continues.

– Theranos, it’s the case the SEC has been waiting for in Silicon Valley.

– Explaining Hillary-hatred.

– Sebastian Mallaby on the cult of the expert, and how it collapsed.

– And QE: the story so far. Read more

FirstFT – Mrs May in Brussels, how the cult of the expert collapsed and the Haitian warlord who met his match

Theresa May receives a polite but cool welcome on her European summit debut Read more

The emerging genre of regulatory filings as performance art

This is a marvelously weird apparent prank.

There seems to be an actual entity — it’s registered in Wisconsin — called YNOFACE Holdings Inc, which said in a SEC filing Wednesday that it had acquired more than 4.2 bn shares of Bank of America on September 22, and nearly 800 million shares on August 15 with an exchange of shares. Read more

Markets Live: Thursday, 20th October, 2016

Live markets commentary from 

Markets Live is back at 11am on Thursday

Two nightmares end. Trump’s finished (yeah?) and Murphy’s finally got out of his sick bed. Join us at 11am for Markets Live.

  Read more

About China’s confusing debt-for-equity swaps

Corporate debt in China is a well-known problem and part of the solution is, apparently, a new round of debt-for-equity swaps.

Of course, there will always be sceptics. Read more

FT Opening Quote: Philip Green in parliamentary spotlight

Philip Green in parliamentary spotlight, Glencore sells Aussie rail unit, LSE revenues up: FT Opening Quote, with commentary by City Editor Jonathan Guthrie, is your early Square Mile briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here. Read more

Further reading


– One (Gold)man’s market marking worth $100m is another man’s prop trading.

– Relatedly, Wall St is doing just fine with fewer workers.

– Broken indicators mean it’s harder to spot trouble in the market.

– What does Nevada’s $35bn fund manager do all day? Nothing.

– And, Bernanke and Olson ask if Americans are better off than they were a decade or two ago? Read more

FirstFT – Trump refuses to commit to accepting vote, Airbnb faces NYC eviction and a plea against helicopter parenting

Clinton accuses Trump of being a ‘puppet’ of Russian President Vladimir Putin Read more

Moody’s rains on the online lending parade

There has been a lot of excitement recently in online lending circles in the UK over a speech. Specifically a speech by Lord Adair Turner, the former financial services authority chairman who famously rubbished the sector back in February. At the LendIt Europe conference last week he stood up and said: ‘alright fine maybe the sector doesn’t like totally suck’.

Such optimism is in short supply on the other side of the Atlantic. On Wednesday, Warren Kornfeld and team at ratings agency Moody’s put out a note with the message: ‘no! it definitely totally does!’: Read more

Stupid Markets Live hiatus continues…

Bryce is still on holiday.

Murphy is still claiming to be ill. Read more

The minutes of your (more dovish) RBI, charted

More dovish, we should add, for reasons already discussed — like the acceptance of a higher inflation threshold, the lowering of the real rate target, and the fact that the cut of 25bps in early October was on the back of a unanimous vote from the newly formed MPC under its new governor, Urjit Patel.

But more on that below the break.

First, that chart from Goldman based on the (now ex-Rajan) Reserve Bank of India’s recently released minutes: Read more

Slim’s pickings at the New York Times

One theory behind rescue financings is that in a period of sharp dislocation, otherwise sound companies just need a lifeline that traditional sources cannot — or will not — provide to ride out the storm. Viable businesses get to survive a financial crisis while rescue lenders get to reap big rewards from going where others fear to tread. The trick is figuring out whether saviours are targeting companies with reasonable survival prospects, or simply throwing good money after bad. Read more

FT Opening Quote: London property woes hit Foxtons

London property woes hit Foxtons, Travis Perkins warns on profits and NYC’s Brexit benefit. FT Opening Quote, with commentary by City Editor Jonathan Guthrie, is your early Square Mile briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here.  Read more

Further reading


– Spread ’em, or “to paraphrase Inigo Montoya, I do not think these rates mean what you think they mean.”

– DeLong on CAPE, future expected equity returns, the equity premium, and market timing.

– Monetary science fiction.

– Mark Zuckerberg’s long march to China.

– And how “tech firms spent $49 million on Washington lobbyists last year, while the five largest banks shelled out $19.7 million…” Read more

FirstFT – Pound rallies on sign of Brexit deal vote, Isis ‘using human shields’ and the dealmaker who was duped

A UK government lawyer says parliament has the final say on whether to accept Brexit deal Read more