© The Financial Times Ltd 2014 FT and 'Financial Times' are trademarks of The Financial Times Ltd.
- The Greek government
- One or two French banks
- The Finnish government
- Spanish banks, UK banks, hmm a few banks really
These are just some of the world-class institutions Joseph has managed to annoy with stuff he’s dug up over the years. He joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010.
Joseph likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)
He doesn’t have a finance background.
Acting as a custodian should require a high-bar, including appropriate security safeguards that are independently audited and tested on a regular basis, adequate balance sheets and reserves as commercial entities, transparent and accountable customer disclosures, and clear policies to not use customer assets for proprietary trading or for margin loans in leveraged trading.
Notwithstanding the approval and publication by the Central Bank of Ireland of the prospectus dated 17 February 2014 in relation to the undermentioned proposed issue of securities, the Issuer hereby confirms that no such securities will be issued.
UKRAINE REPRESENTED BY THE MINISTER OF FINANCE OF UKRAINE Read more
We’re open to the idea Whatsapp is worth almost $40 a user. Really. You know, something like:
- 450m active users, emphasis on active, many of whom are outside the US (and messaging across borders).
- Rare is the service that lets Android phones talk to iPhones easily, incidentally, or has non eye-stabby group messaging. “Network externalities” as the oleaginous VCs put it in Palo Alto.
- It’s price to users not earnings. Assume first that service will earn $5 or so over from each user, over a typical lifetime of using Whatsapp on current $1 a year pricing. Double or triple the pricing and the return looks better. Throw (oh, we dunno) mobile payments and better still. Now, quite plausibly, throw in 2bn, not 450m, users.
- So sure it’s a momentum trade. And sure, valuation is nuts, but Facebook is mostly paying in its shares, and Facebook shareholders made that valuation nuts. The basic trick here is not new: accrete earnings (users) with stock. Bluntly, Mark Zuckerberg has Lex Luthor-level ambitions — Facebook having LexCorp-level corporate governance. So come along for the ride.
Okey-dokey. But we’re still far from sure we get to more than $40 a user back.
And, all that said — who told China? (Or Korea, or Japan)
Chart via Nomura. And so to the keiretsu effect. Read more
in exchange for an aggregate of 183,865,778 shares of Parent’s Class A common stock (valued at $12 billion based on the average closing price of the six trading days preceding February 18, 2014 of $65.2650 per share (“Specified Price”)) and $4 billion in cash… In addition, upon Closing, Parent will grant 45,966,444 restricted stock units to WhatsApp employees (valued at $3 billion based on the Specified Price). Read more
Moscow doesn’t send tanks into revolting former vassals any more. It sends dollars.
For anyone who decides to follow the money when it comes to Ukraine’s split between the EU and Russia, the consequences can sometimes be grimly surreal when it gets to the prosaic matters of bond finance. Read more
This post is just to flesh out a point in this great piece by John McDermott — so read that first.
But we think it’s an important point. An alternative title for this post: What’s under your gilt?
After all, it is the debt that has enabled Her Majesty’s government to turn so breezily confident that currency union with an independent Scotland “is not going to happen”, fully seven months before an independence referendum. Read more
*TURKEY’S CENTRAL BANK RAISES OVERNIGHT BORROWING RATE TO 8.00%
*TURKEY’S CENTRAL BANK RAISES OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE TO 12.00%
*TURKEY’S CENTRAL BANK RAISES BENCHMARK REPO RATE TO 10.00%
The overnight lending rate had been 7.75 per cent, the borrowing rate was 3.5 per cent and the repo rate 4.5 per cent. So — just a tad aggressive… Read more
Inflation had returned to the 2% target… and cost pressures were subdued. Members therefore saw no immediate need to raise Bank Rate even if the 7% unemployment threshold were to be reached in the near future. Moreover, it was likely that the headwinds to growth associated with the aftermath of the financial crisis would persist for some time yet and that inflationary pressures would remain contained…
Someone tell cable? Read more
The share price is down a fifth in 12 months. It’s cheaper than Lloyds (on price to tangible book), as a bank with Asia supposedly at its feet. The boardroom is a mess and last week’s “reorganisation” may not fend off an eventual cash call.
Still, after that excellent year for Standard Chartered — Citi’s analysts suggest it’s time for ANZ to buy it: Read more
Just to put an already-huge year-end move in Portuguese bond yields into some wider context…
Here’s a chart (via Reuters) of the five-year yield since August 2010 — to which levels it’s now, roughly, returned. Click to enlarge.
UK home-builders trying to move ahead of the political wind on foreign investors buying up London property?
In any case, though we missed this on Wednesday it seems part of the Zeitgeist — eleven of them agreed not to sell UK (read: London) new-builds abroad before they go on the domestic market from next year: Read more
Some are betting that Beijing will eventually endorse Bitcoin. This week Lightspeed Venture Partners of San Francisco and a China-based sister fund announced a $5m investment in BTCChina…
– Financial Times, November 22
One-year total return of the Athens stock index, to the end of October 2013: +50%
One-year return of the Bloomberg Greece Sovereign Bond Index, same period: +134%
One-year net return of Dromeus Capital’s Greek Advantage Fund: +107%
Yep — FT Alphaville hears that the first-year performance of Dromeus Capital’s Greece-focused fund would make it one of 2013′s best-performing, having already made a strong start at the beginning of the year.
It’s another indicator of how much both Greek equities, and the sovereign’s restructured debt, have recovered this year… Read more
This vision of 2014 caught our eye — from Nomura’s annual outlook (out Monday)… Read more
Since the Business Select Committee was, at pixel time, picking over whether Royal Mail was sold too cheaply…
Here’s a relevant Dealogic list we came across on Wednesday. These are the first-day trading performances for the other, large ($1bn-plus) IPOs of privatised companies in Europe over the last 15 years: Read more
Article 5 — In the event of operations involving amounts that meet or exceed THREE HUNDRED AND FIFTY THOUSAND PESOS, registration managers should define a user profile, which will be based on information and documentation relating to the economic, household, financial and tax situation, and will require supporting evidence or information which proves the origin of funds.
BUY (The shutdown didn’t wreck everything, the jobless rate’s still weak)
NO, SELL (Tapering sooner) Read more
Update – It’s not just the rate cut, as Mario Draghi opens the presser at pixel time:
Earlier – Bold move or way too late? You decide: Read more
"We and Goldman, Sachs & Co., Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., as representatives of the several underwriters named below, intend to enter into an underwriting agreement with respect to the notes..."
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312514069693/d678614d424b5.htmComment on: A Chinese wall made of battery packs
A.N. Other-Hedgie - Yes. It's quite funny given that it comes straight from the Ukrainian budget code... I think it's also interesting for adding *guarantees* to the debt to GDP definition. And when you count the potential effects of devaluation on the ratio.... post coming, anyway.Comment on: So long, Ukraine $1,984,838,000 5.00 per cent Notes due 2015
There's a revenue breakdown table here (or on p. 47)
But, Brutto - looks like warranties come under 'ancillary services'. Also seems these aren't broken out, within either 'AO website sales' or third-party sales. But go to p. 81 and there are some related figures...
"The Group had accrued income of £6.5 million, £10.1 million, £14.3 million and £17.9 million as atComment on: WTF, AO IPO PDF?
31 March 2011, 2012 and 2013 and 31 December 2013, respectively. Accrued income consisted primarily of expected future commission payments in respect of product protection plans sold by the Group as agent of D&G. Purchasers of product protection plans pay a fixed monthly fee to D&G on plans that are in force,
and the Group receives a cash commission on such monthly payments."
iTrade - er, Russia hasn't drafted the doc. This is not a Russian domestic bond, this is a Ukrainian Eurobond issued under English law. You did read the post, right? The pari passu clause etc are all standard boilerplate... they just contain enormous loopholes.
And anyway, the $2bn sale's just been cancelled.Comment on: Ukraine $1,984,838,000 5.00 per cent Notes due 2015 -- and the burning tyres therein
coolstorybro - That part you quote is more a reference to Whatsapp charting $1 per year for 5 years, assuming that 5 years is the most people will use it for. Which is a generous assumption anyway.
The next assumption in the post was that they raise it to $2 or $3 per year... but what you say makes the case that $5 a year really isn't going to work!Comment on: The data keiretsu
I absolutely get the 450m users point (or rather that this becomes 2bn-plus in short order). It's just that surely, actually lots of people do believe in the large numbers here - or they wouldn't be pricing this into Tencent's $140bn market cap at the same time!Comment on: This is (beyond) nuts. When's the crash?
Jack - Good question, have always wondered about Chinese telcos especially.. (given QQ, Wechat et al)Comment on: This is (beyond) nuts. When's the crash?
TT - Probably better to pass it off as a dirty-mac investment than explain what you were thinking investing in SA mining shaft business at this juncture...Comment on: Markets Live: Monday, 17th February, 2014
Chevelle - Sorry if this post came across like that, given the mandarin shorthand. (It's just shorthand, not hushed tones) I agree the Treasury analysis on currency unions was competent and pretty persuasive.
But you know, Sir Nicholas hasn't exactly played down the influence and prestige of the Treasury...
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/speech-by-the-permanent-secretary-to-the-treasury-sir-nicholas-macpherson-the-origins-of-treasury-controlComment on: How Scotland really lost sterling union
Sorry to hear that Stephen - send me a screenshot (joseph dot cotterill at ft dot com) and I'll try and get it fixed.Comment on: How Scotland really lost sterling union