The Global Property Guide’s quarterly house price report was published on Wednesday offering some sobering statistics on global real-estate prices in the third quarter.
To wit, the fact that “price falls in several countries have been much larger than house price rises anywhere and include unprecedentedly severe falls in Latvia (-59.7% year to date),
To carry trade or not to carry trade. That is the question.
In the last few weeks a host of different banks have stepped forward to question both the depth and degree of the current dollar carry trade. Among them have been Goldman Sachs,
Take out some refinery production in the US amidst weak global demand for distillates, and what happens? The RBOB gasoline crack — the US benchmark measure of the difference between the price of crude and that of gasoline — strengthens to the point it’s trading at par with heating oil.
Here’s an interesting way to view the potential longevity of $1000-plus gold prices, courtesy of RBC Capital Markets.
Take your top tier gold stocks and calculate the types of price scenarios their share prices are currently pricing in:
Elsewhere on Tuesday,
- Five suggestions for fixing Wall Street.
- “Roubini’s okay but he’s not as good as me”.
- The world according to Americans.
- Citi: the commodity collapse could be “Subprime Part II”.
Heritage Oil has called off its proposed $6bn deal to merge with Turkey’s Genel Enerji in the wake of its agreement to sell its Ugandan oil fields to Eni, the Italian energy group. The UK group on Sunday sealed a deal with Eni worth $1.35bn in cash for the Ugandan assets,
Last Friday, what many in the energy market had long suspected might happen, happened.
Valero, the largest independent refiner in the US, was forced to close another 200,000-plus barrel-per-day refinery — this time,
Here’s a Friday mystery. Presenting December ICE dollar index futures as traded on November 20:
So what could that peculiar spike be down to?
We’re not sure. As MarketWatch reports, the exchange is at least on to it:
Could the world finally be catching on to the distillate glut problem? (Despite the Daily Mail getting completely the wrong end of the stick on the story).
We note even the normally media-shy physical trader Trafigura warned about the matter via Reuters on Thursday:
It’s day two of the Daily Mail’s campaign against tankers parked off the British coast. In case you missed “how the Daily Mail broke the story yesterday” you might care to check out FT Alphaville’s coverage here.
Elsewhere on Friday,
- Investing fads and themes by year, 1996 to present.
- Unintended consequences on Wall Street.
- Chart of the day: How the old gold bugs lost control.
- Analyst date night:
Unless you’ve had your head buried in the sand, you’ll know high frequency trading stormed onto the mainstream agenda this summer, catching the critical eye of the international press, public and regulators alike.
We love talking about contango on FT Alphaville.
But no one, it turns out, can turn a nerdy market-structure story about the shape of the futures curve into an alarmist `evil speculator’ rant extraordinaire quite like the Daily Mail.
The Bank of England’s just-released trends in lending report offers some interesting statistics and charts, as ever.
Here’s a selection of some of the data points that caught FT Alphaville’s eye.
First,
EIA US oil inventory data released on Wednesday surprised many investors by reporting unexpectedly large draws in crude, distillates and gasoline stocks last week.
While on the surface this came might have come across as bullish for the energy complex,
It’s making headlines, so here’s what all the gold at $6,300 fuss is about.
Selected highlights of the latest ‘Popular Delusions’ note from Société Générale’s Dylan Grice:
Central bank hoarding of gold in 1970 ushered in the famous gold bull market.
Elsewhere on Thursday,
- SocGen on how to prepare for the global economic collapse.
- “Is gold going to $6,300?”
- 2009 vs 1982 stock market rallies.
- Kass on the quant bubble.
- Krugman on the unintended consequences of the AIG bailout.
Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson is launching a new gold fund from Jan 1 that will include $250m of his own personal investment, reports the WSJ. The fund will focus on shares of gold miners and other bullion-related investments,
BNP Paribas’ Harry Tchilinguirian has put out a very interesting oil note on Wednesday.
First, the bank has revised its fourth quarter 2009 WTI price forecast to $77 per barrel versus $66 per barrel previously,
In further signs of the financing pressure facing the shipping industry, DryShips , an Athens-based commodity-focused operator owned by Greek shipping tycoon George Economou, announced late on Tuesday it had signed a waiver agreement with Deutsche Schiffsbank on $117.5m of outstanding debt.
Elsewhere on Wednesday,
- The madness of the inflation hawks.
- IPOs are back.
- Adam Smith in 10 minutes.
- Can options spikes be a coincidence?
- Faber on gold, and just about everything else.
FT Alphaville has previously delved deeply into the latest product offering from ETF Securities: “collateralised currency securities”, also known as ETCs.
We’re revisiting the topic, but while our conclusions remain unchanged — these are hugely complicated products — we would like to clarify one matter:
Oh my. We hope you’re sitting down because the following might come as a bit of a shock.
On Tuesday Goldman Sachs’ commodity team admitted they may have got something wrong:
The market remains caught in the tug-of-war between weaker-than-expected DM demand,
From the World Gold Council’s website on Tuesday:
Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie to launch gold jewellery range
Monday, 16th November 2009 (145 views) Luxury jeweller Asprey is teaming up with Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie to launch a new range of gold and other jewellery and accessories. According to Women’s Wear Daily,
Elsewhere on Tuesday,
- Preparing China’s yuan for the world stage.
- Bubble trouble: Why real estate is China’s biggest headache.
- America’s newest land baron: FDIC.
- Is merger arbitrage a worthwhile ETF strategy?
- Mauritius buys IMF gold.
The price of gold hit another record on Monday as the dollar resumed its downward trend, helping global equities to fresh highs for 2009. Asian and European bourses started the week in generally fine form and Wall Street joined the trend,
When Nasdaq-listed Knight Capital Group reported third quarter earnings on October 21, the numbers took many investors by surprise.
Net income at the electronic-trading provider fell in the period by 9 cents to 31 cents a share or $29.2m,
Here is a chart, from Standard Chartered, that nicely sums up the mystery of Chinese car and petrol sales:
As Standard Chartered’s Stephen Green notes:
Car sales in China are booming, but gasoline consumption seems to be stuck in the slow lane.
…according to Stephen Schork, the analyst behind the widely-read Schork report on energy markets, it certainly is. In fact, he provides the following illustration of the communist-era car in his Monday report to emphasise the point:
Elsewhere on Monday and the weekend,
- A field guide to wild and woolly financial conspiracies.
- A forensic reconstruction of Goldman’s 2008 prop trading.
- World out of balance.
- China is now the biggest risk to the international economy.
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