An interesting, vaguely Easter-themed chart by Barings Asset Management, via Paul Mason’s Idle Scrawl blog:
It shows the changes in wheat prices in the years before both the 1848 Spring of Nations and this year’s Arab Spring. The fit for events in 1848 is tighter than for those in 2011 but we may not be finished yet of course — looking at you, Jordan.
It would be interesting to also graph changes that occurred closer to the moment of revolt (if that can be defined). In Iran (1979), Russia (1917) and France (1789) the price changes were creeping up for a while but the price spike was sudden and — at least in the case of Jacques Necker –reflected abysmally bad policy.
Nevertheless, fascinating stuff, and as ever, only a muppet swinging Ockham’s razor would read too much into a single dataset to explain epochal events.
Related link:
China, 1789 and potash – FT Alphaville