We’ve already mentioned the Disciplined Investor’s take on the “Milli Vanilli government” that facilitated JPMorgan’s deal with Bear Stearns. But it is worth revisiting for its point about Visa Inc’s $17bn mega-IPO (lead underwriters none other than JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs) set for Wednesday - a day after the Fed’s policy meeting and just as some of Wall Street’s big banks kick off the first-quarter reporting season.
Visa will “assuredly end up postponing its IPO”, ventures DI. Unless the lead underwriters- JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs - are “completely deranged and masochistic, Tuesday is not going to be the best day to attempt to bring history’s largest IPO to market”.
“In addition, it is possible that JPM will have its hands full with a small integration matter”, adds DI. The timing is simply wrong for the Visa IPO.
Waytoohigh.com, which describes itself as the credit card interchange report, agrees:
Based on the dire financial news reports, stock market turmoil - from Bear Stearns to soaring gold and other commodity prices and non-stop Federal Reserve interventions - we are thinking that the Visa IPO will not happen this week, or any time in the near future, it says Monday.
Let’s see who will be right - us or the thousands of gleefully greedy banks hoping to bailout and transfer partial ownership on an already battered investment community.
We guess Visa’s public reason will be due to “market conditions,” but we can’t imagine investors ponying up to own a piece of a company that, according to their SEC filing could become insolvent if our merchant antitrust litigation is successful.
The Wall Street Journal, however, doesn’t seem to think Visa is hostage to deranged investment banks or about to can its IPO, reporting Monday that Visa’s IPO plan is on track this week and adding that while the largest-ever US IPO is expected to be a hit with investors, it “isn’t likely to turn a moribund issuance market into a hotbed of activity”.
The offering, which is scheduled to begin trading Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol V, has been lauded both for the strength of the industry it operates in as well as the attractive price tag affixed to the shares. Although underwriters could boost the proposed price this week if there is strong demand, analysts unaffiliated with the deal say the current range of $37 to $42 is a bargain.
Bargain? There has to be far more than a little irony in any talk of “bargains” at $37-$42 per share - straight after lead underwriter JPMorgan bagged one of Wall Street’s investment banks for just $2 a share.Mind you, adds the Journal, the business of processing credit-card transactions is expected to be relatively sheltered from economic blows “because consumers continue to switch to plastic for more of their purchases”.
Potential investors also could be heartened by the performance of MasterCard. Its shares have performed well from its debut through the past several months of unsteady markets, it adds.
Finally, it quotes David DiPietro, president of specialty investment bank Signal Hill in Baltimore, saying Visa is “one of a few stocks that could do well in any kind of market”. It’s hard to come up with dozens of other companies that could overcome investors’ current aversion to risk, he adds.
By way of background, Visa, the world’s largest credit card network, said late February it hoped to raise up to $18.8bn in its long-awaited flotation, which will bring a badly needed financial boost to some of the biggest US banks.Visa, reported the FT, decided to press ahead with what will be America’s largest ever IPO despite “nervous equity markets and the threat of a global economic slowdown”.
Michael Lafferty, head of Lafferty Group, a card consultancy, said the decision to go ahead may reflect pressure from its US bank shareholders which include Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase.
[…] WayTooHigh.com in the Financial Times Click here to read the Financial Times update on the Visa IPO plans. […]
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[…] Obviously, the banks think differently, especially JP Morgan Chase, which is much more than a lead underwriter. Did you know that they are also a primary investor in Visa Inc as well and could reap what could be called: doubling-rewards from cashing out and grabbing fees from the offering? […]