US states of emergency
Markets: “Asian shares eased and the dollar firmed on Tuesday as unexpectedly strong U.S. factory activity bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will soon trim its stimulus, while the yen tumbled on speculation of further central bank easing.” (Reuters) (Financial Times)
Markets: “Oil fell, with U.S. prices slipping for a fourth day, after an industry report showed crude supplies rose for a ninth week. Asian stocks erased losses as Chinese shares advanced, while Indonesia’s currency weakened.” (Bloomberg)
Markets: Asian equity markets were mixed as monetary conditions in China tightened in October. The below-stimate new loan figures are the final Chinese economic data to be released before the ruling Communist party leaders conclude their third plenum. (Financial Times) (Bloomberg)
Markets: Asian markets declined, reacting to better than expected US gross domestic product data that increased speculation that the US Federal Reserve will pare back its monetary stimulus before March 2014. Data released on Thursday showed that the US economy grew 2.8 per cent in the third quarter, against expectations of 2 per cent. (Financial Times)
Markets: Asian bourses were decidedly mixed as investors waited for earnings releases from some of the biggest companies in the region as well as more certainty on US monetary policy from the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week. (Financial Times)
Credit Suisse to overhaul interest rates trading business || Pinterest value leaps 52% to $3.8bn || UK peer-to-peer lender targets the US || US Congress moves to tighten money laundering laws || US jury rules against BoA in mortgage trial || Draghi warns that some European banks need to fail a series of ECB health checks || UK car output tops 1.5m for first time since 2008 || Alcoa and Rusal Are beneficiaries of warehouse logjam || Angela Merkel’s mobile phone may have been the target of US surveillance || Markets
Creakier than sovereigns’ long-term pensions liabilities? Sub-sovereign ones, possibly. A new piece by Moody’s lands, looking at the problem among the regions and cities of four countries otherwise rated Triple-A: Australia, Canada, Germany and the United States.
Markets: The dollar weakened against all its major peers while Asian stocks climbed with U.S. index and Treasury futures as Lawrence Summers withdrew his bid to become Federal Reserve chairman. Crude oil fell after the U.S. and Russia agreed on a plan to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons. (Bloomberg) (Financial Times) Today: EU: CPI, US: Industrial Production; NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for September
Markets: Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index on course to snap an 11-day rally, as the U.S. and Russia hold talks on Syria and investors await the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting next week. (Bloomberg) Major indices around the region were down between 0.3 and 0.5 per cent, including Japan’s Nikkei 225 index, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, South Korea’s Kospi Composite and the Shanghai Composite. (Financial Times)
Optimism grows for developed economies || Summers would face key ‘no’ votes for Fed || IMF warns Norway over housing bubble || UK interest rate expectations rise || ICAP in talks to settle US, UK rate probe || Apple probes work conditions at China factory || Blockbuster Verizon bond sale to test debt appetite || Watchdog launches Batista investigation || Yuan volatility decreases || Trading in yen soars || Markets
Markets: Asian stocks fell, snapping a six-day rally, and the yen strengthened before US jobs data that may signal whether the Federal Reserve will pare stimulus. Ten-year Australian bond yields climbed, while copper advanced. (Bloomberg) (Financial Times) Today: Europe: German IP, UK IP. US: Non-farm payrolls.
This is is a guest post from Philip Pilkington, a writer and research assistant at Kingston University. Over the past few years some quarters of the financial commentariat have taken to describing the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases as the monetisation of US national debt, something which has given rise to all sorts of misguided fears about inflation and much else. While the Fed certainly have been purchasing extensive amounts of government debt in the secondary markets it is perhaps misleading to assume that these markets would not otherwise be buoyant without such intervention.
Most Asian markets higher || Japan CPI reaches 5-year high, but mostly on energy costs || US and Switzerland reach tax evasion accord || RBI ‘to pilot gold buying project’ || Vodafone nears Verizon Wireless stake sale || KPN foundation blocks Carlos Slim bid || German economic miracle runs out || The Fed’s new tool
FURTHER FURTHER READING - A few words about math. - US median income is still 6 per cent below its 2007 peak. - “Once you cut through the free market (or anti-market rhetoric), the Austrian theory is not as different from Minsky’s as it sounds at first. And both sides hate it when you say this.” - Asia’s debt conundrum awakens the ghosts of 1990s crisis.
Asian stocks down, tapering fears blamed || Surprise surge in Shanghai stocks || Cairo braced for more protests, more than 600 dead || China and Japan led record Treasury outflows || UK bad bank works on branding || Foreign banks in talks on China bad bad || China may probe IBM, Oracle, EMC: report || Bullard floats small-scale tapering
From a VoxEU post by Brian Cadena and Brian Kovak: Recently, economists have noticed some disturbing trends in the US economy. Job creation, job destruction, and job-to-job switches are all in decline (Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger 2012; Hyatt and Spletzer 2013). Further, fewer and fewer people are making long-distance moves in order to take better jobs (Molloy, Smith, and Wozniak 2011). This slowdown is problematic because labour mobility, especially across geography, is a key contributor to the dynamism of an economy, and it tends to reduce inequality in economic outcomes across space (Blanchard and Katz 1992). Additionally, research consistently reveals that low-skilled workers (those with at most a high school degree) are especially unlikely to move between cities or states in response to changing job prospects (Bound and Holzer 2000, Wozniak 2010).
Asian stocks fall || Crédit Agricole reveals Q2 results early || HSBC’s US mortgage penalty may be $1.6bn || Sony rejects Loeb entertainment sale proposal; shares fall || Australia’s central bank cuts to 2.5% || BP denies manipulating US natgas prices after 2008 hurricane || On Jeff Bezos and the Washington Post || Analyst round-up of China debt views
FT markets round-up: “Financial markets adopted a broadly cautious tone as a big week in terms of central bank meetings and economic data releases got under way. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are all scheduled to unveil policy decisions this week while a heavy schedule of global macro data will culminate on Friday with July’s all-important US non-farm payrolls report.” (Financial Times) Publicis and Omnicom face hard sell: “Investors have given a lukewarm reaction to the proposed $35bn merger of Publicis and Omnicom, as the creation of a new Franco-US leader of the global advertising and marketing industry faced scrutiny from clients, regulators, rivals and analysts. The unexpected combination of the industry’s second and third largest companies by revenue, with a promised $500m of annual synergy benefits after five years but no premium for either company’s shareholders, left shares in Publicis up only 0.25 per cent at €59.50 as trading closed in Paris. Omnicom shares closed 0.55 per cent lower at $64.75 in New York.” (Financial Times)
FURTHER FURTHER READING - The question before the court. - Ben Bernanke came out guns blazing today. - The death of print has been greatly exaggerated. - Wall Street’s lawfare strategy against regulation.
FURTHER FURTHER READING - John Jeremiah Sullivan on the publication of Cotton Tenants. - Early bird specials and US growth. - Some good ideas on infrastructure and profit repatriation from Larry Summers. - The mystery of why Portugal is so doomed.
Nikkei slump || European regulators have clashed with the US over the timing derivatives reforms || Google is preparing an attack on Apple’s iPhone || Shuanghui agrees $4.7bn deal for Smithfield Foods || Panasonic said it would cut about 5,000 workers || Fiat is in talks for as much as $10 billion in financing to buy rest of Chrysler || Ryanair faces regulatory pressure to sell stake in Aer Lingus || EU agrees to end decades of overfishing || Berkshire Hathaway on Wednesday agreed to buy NV Energy || Blackstone is weighing a bigger than expected withdrawal from SAC Capital || Switzerland has taken a decisive step to resolve its dispute with the US over tax evasion || Brazil’s central bank tightened interest rates 50bps || Markets roundup || FTAV’s latest
FURTHER FURTHER READING - QE: because nobody’s got any better ideas. - DSGE + financial frictions = macro that works? - Flippers rise housing wave. - Analyst: I always have terrible timing on my calls. - Blog post of Tweet of Vine of Instagram of Tumblr Post of Facebook Update.
FT markets round-up: “A calmer mood prevailed in the markets after the volatility of the previous session, as participants took a positive view of some mixed US economic data and attempted to put lingering concerns about the eurozone to one side. Indeed, the S&P 500 US equity index rose 0.8 per cent to finish within two points of the record closing high of 1,565.15 it set in October 2007. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 closed 0.2 per cent higher, although there were further losses for peripheral eurozone equity markets, with the Ibex 35 in Madrid shedding 1.8 per cent and Milan’s FTSE MIB down 1 per cent.” (Financial Times) Warren Buffett will become one of Goldman’s largest shareholders, after a deal to convert billions of dollars of warrants into common stock. Berkshire Hathaway was originally issued the warrants as part of investing $5bn in the bank during the crisis, giving it the right to purchase about 9 per cent of the bank for $115 per share before October 1 this year. Tuesday’s revised deal will see Goldman issue Berkshire stock equivalent to the company’s paper profit on the position (Financial Times, Goldman statement). Buffett’s gain of a 2 per cent stake from the deal will making him a top 10 Goldman shareholder (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg).
Asian shares fall, Japan rises on easing hopes || Sequestration cuts imminent || Official China PMIs lower || Lib Dems win Eastleigh, Tories come third || Lloyds to announce more PPI provisions || Australian towns win $21m in S&P CPDO case || US student debt delinquencies soaring
US budget confrontations loom || US banks seek $10bn foreclosure settlement || Buffett gives solar a boost || BofA to raise lending this year || Goldman pays out stock awards before vote || Avis Budget buys Zipcar || CVC buys Cerved || From Wall St to teaching || Markets