Yes, a flattening yield curve can often indicate a recession is imminent. But not always.
By: Izabella Kaminska
A Bank of England staff paper is out, if you’re interested in 13th-century interest rates.
By: Paul Murphy
A quick look at risk.
By: Alexandra Scaggs
If nobody understands the consequences of what you’re doing, is it even happening at all?
By: Matthew C Klein
A New York Fed staffer gave some interesting estimates for the balance sheet’s “normalized” size.
International investors still aren’t fleeing Treasuries, which shouldn’t come as much surprise.
Of balance sheet reductions and the recent “sharp decline in the correlation between the 10-year US Treasury and short rates”.
By: David Keohane
Choose wisely. And for Pete’s sake, don’t go on a “winning streak”.
Let’s think less about costs and more about society as we evaluate the Trump tax plan and budget, please.
In which we address some of the questions about the Fed’s balance sheet, and nearly get convinced that it should shrink.
Microsoft appears to be buying a LOT of notes that mature between two and five years from now. (And they might be quietly moving the needle at Treasury auctions.)
This is a real puzzler.
A look at what the debt ceiling means for money markets — think less about “extraordinary measures,” and more about the Treasury’s cash balance.
A (permanently pessimistic) prognosticator is worried that the bond market isn’t ready for an accelerating pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
It’s less important to introduce century bonds than to measure duration correctly and fill out the belly, writes Winthrop T Smith.
By: Guest writer
It might take a few months, but things will eventually calm down, Wells Fargo analysts say.
We resist the (strong) temptation to get too abstract in this one, because there are technical questions about how an ultra-long US Treasury bond would be issued.
Trust is perhaps the most important quality of rich countries. We investigate what that might (or might not) have to do with a country’s ability to borrow.
The d— ceiling could soon start looming over money markets yet again if the Democrats don’t sweep the House and Senate. (Why won’t it just die?)