Jason Furman explains why politics is a nasty business.
By: Matthew C Klein
But there’s good news too…
By: Cardiff Garcia
The latest batch of forecasts shows the Fed deliberately tightening policy to cause growth to slow and unemployment to rise.
Digging into the troubling decline in the personal saving rate.
Some fun with the Fed’s Enhanced Financial Accounts data.
During the financial crisis, the FTC only scrutinised mergers in markets with the highest amounts of concentration, which seems problematic.
By: Alexandra Scaggs
New research shows how “technocratic” forecasters are terrible at a key part of their job.
The Fed is getting it wrong, say Morgan Stanley, with a chunk on expectations and yield curve flattenings driving the dollar weaker:
By: David Keohane
We’re not happy about this either…
Former banker and banking lawyer Martin Lowy reminds us that increasing debt levels don’t always lead to financial crisis.
By: Guest writer
The variable that really matters for investment isn’t profits. It’s growth.
There don’t seem to be any heroes in Illinois’ budget mess. One analyst says the situation might not improve until the state loses access to capital markets altogether.
The productivity problem is real — and getting worse.
In their own words, it’s “a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it. ”
Cutting taxes on actual workers would be a good start.
Tax cuts may or may not be a good idea. But worrying about the impact on the deficit is silly.
Even if you trust consumer sentiment data, there is little to suggest that the improvement in expectations will lead to significantly more spending.
First-quarter US corporate earnings have been pretty good… So far.
Missing its target…again.
Lower overall tax rates and a bigger standard deduction could more than offset the impact.
Enough with that blasted Oliver Wendell Holmes quote.
In this guest post, former banking lawyer Martin Lowy explains the problems with ring-fencing investment banking from commercial banking and proposes a simpler solution for limiting systemic risk.
Oh, to be young, rich, male, and heavily indebted.
But it’s complicated…
By: Kadhim Shubber
The triumph of hope over experience.
Post-crisis mortgages cost more. That might be because banks are doing them properly this time.
Jamie Dimon thinks there is “too much” capital in the banking system. Fed economists in the supervisory division think there isn’t nearly enough.
If all the free-thinkers in a country leave, guess who’s left?
Pension plans don’t speculate on macro trades.
This is a real puzzler.