- Is the Zoom boom doomed?
- The crypto collapse gets cataclysmic
- This is nuts, this is the crash.
- COVID-19: Short the sharing economy
- Virgin Galactic is rocketing, when’s it returning to earth?
- Tesla is nuts, when’s the crash?
- Dotcom redux as Shopify extends explosive share spike
- Nio’s New Years Day surprise
- Nio is nuts, where’s the cash?
- Wayfair: mo growth mo problems
- Cloud software is nuts, and it’s crashing
- Gilets are nuts, when’s the crash?
- Negative yields are nuts, when’s the crash?
- Zoom is nuts, when’s the crash?
- This is nuts, when's the maturity?
- Beyond Meat is beyond reason, when's the crash?
- Salesforce/Tableau: cloud cuckoo consolidation
- Extel shocker: here comes the crash?
- This is Musk. This is the crash.
- This is nut loaf, will Beyond Meat crash?
(The vintage sort that is.)
- CryptoMom wants to give the crypto kids a break
- Blockchain goes extra-terrestrial
- The Woz and the crypto wonga
- The crypto Buffett lunch has been postponed. Lucky Warren Buffett.
- A $100m ICO being sued by the SEC wants more of your money
- A crypto Buffett lunch is on the cards. Poor Warren Buffett.
- LGC-Coin fights back against the Financial Times
- A failed ICO is trying to flog itself on eBay
- Parliament gets it, crypto-currency bunkum edition
- The ICO whose team members are literally cartoon characters
- The London School of Cryptonomics
- Intel's disruption, and the problem with every token pitch
- Buy SEC tokens! Now!
- Crypto “hedge fund” update
- The CryptoMillionsLotto
- We ran away with your bitcoins!! LOL, JK
- About that Petro
- Michelle Mone brings a touch of the avant-garde to finance
- Conservative peer stakes her name on a crypto offering, just as the market crashes
The “prestigious LGC-Coin cryptocurrency”.
Tesco has defied the expectations of analysts, with UK like-for-like sales growing 1.3 per cent over the crucial festive period. There is a ruck of other retailers reporting this morning and the Bank of England gives us its latest decision on rates at noon. FT Opening Quote, with commentary by City Editor Jonathan Guthrie, is your early Square Mile briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here.
Tips. The ultimate example of “unbundled” costs and discretionary performance-based income. There are service staff who rely extensively on tips (waiting staff, bartenders, hairdressers, shoe-shiners, doormen, taxi drivers, hospitality staff, street entertainers) and then there are service staff which weirdly don’t (handymen, nurses, airline hostesses, Uber drivers, carers and a plethora of others). So what to make of a fintech start-up, Xendpay, which would like to encourage discretionary tipping for foreign exchange services?
John Lewis has shown listed retailers how to have a good Christmas, Topps Tiles sales are up and Card Factory has a new chief executive. FT Opening Quote, with commentary by City Editor Jonathan Guthrie, is your early Square Mile briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here.
A J Sainsbury bear hug on Home Retail Group, the owner of Argos, has proved quite unpopular. News of Sainsbury’s November cash-and-shares offer to buy Home Retail led the grocer’s shares to be marked 5 per cent lower, cutting its market value by £300m — equivalent to nearly a third of the market cap of its target. Jefferies’s James Grzinic sums things up:
Mike Cagney is one of those Silicon Valley entrepreneurs for whom humility is a foreign language. Since raising around $1bn at a $3.8bn valuation for his online lending shop, SoFi — which stands for Social Finance — he has called his peers unambitious dorks for working with Wall Street and told America’s biggest banks to watch their backs, I’m coming for you. All with one key message: SoFi is not a bank. It’s “happily not a bank”. In fact, it’s “better than a bank!”. Or even better still, it’s a way to “un-bank millennials”. One could say, SoFi’s ‘not a bank’ almost to the point that the word ‘bank’ itself becomes entirely meaningless. (The common view is a bank’s a platform which uses network effects to transfer risk from those can’t afford it to those who can.)
UBS looks at the fundamentals of India’s new gold monetisation schemes on Thursday and in the process comes up with one of the best summations we’ve ever seen on why gold investing in and of itself is stoopid — especially when done en masse by a relatively poor economy. Indians directly or indirectly hold an estimated 22,000 tonnes of gold worth USD 800bn or 39% of Indian GDP (banking system credit is c50% of GDP). Gold thus held is problematic to some because unlike most capital goods it derives its expected value not from its ability to produce (directly or indirectly) goods or services that will meet the material demands of consumers. Instead it derives its value from investors’ collective perception of what it is worth. Indeed.
Touting Ponzi schemes, or as the hip and the cool prefer to call them these days ‘mutual aid’ programmes, is so much easier if you have a handy Marxist-esque ideology to hand. The MMM scheme, which we wrote about on Wednesday, has an ideology and it certainly doesn’t disappoint. Some snippets from the imaginarium of Mr. Sergey Mavrodi: The modern world is bad. It is inhumane, unfair and unjust. This is the world of money. It is not for people. It is for those who who produce this money, for bankers and financiers, government and millionaires. And people are mere “pawns” in this game. They just serve them as attendants.
This is for those of you interested in ancient Chinese business cycles. So, everyone, right? From Yaguang Zhang, Guo Fan and John Whalley’s new paper: Where do you think we are now, mid-plenum and all? “Arrogant dragon will have cause to repent”, perhaps? Or “Dragon wavering over the depths”? Certainly not around 7 per cent “Hidden Dragon. Do not act” or “Flying dragon in the heavens”?
As any good Trekkie will tell you, the economics of the 24th century are somewhat different. Why? Because the acquisition of wealth is no longer the driving force in people’s lives. They — Ferengi excluded — work to better themselves and the rest of humanity. Except, the bummer is, that’s probably a major over-simplification. A post-scarcity economy — a.k.a. the economic reality of an abundant system — may not necessarily lead to a utopian world. At least if we go by the meritocratic example of the fictional Star Trek society. In other words, here’s a post about how I attended a New York Comic Con panel on the economics of abundance — featuring Paul Krugman and Brad Delong, Annalee Newitz (i09), Chris Black (Enterprise writer), Felix Salmon and Manu Saadia, author of the new book Trekonomics — and learnt that even if we did have it all one day, chances are, highly-popular cosplaying events would still be capped by the natural limits of space-time.
Two Glencore copper mines have For Sale signs up, pollster YouGov has beaten forecasts and Dell is close to the biggest ever tech deal. FT Opening Quote, with commentary by City Editor Jonathan Guthrie, is your early Square Mile briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here.
A record number for bums on seats for easyJet has given it the confidence to lift full-year profit guidance, Barclays is heading towards the exit in Portugal and the Aga saga is simmering. FT Opening Quote, with commentary by City editor Jonathan Guthrie, is your early Square Mile briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here. Asian markets
Jimmy Choo is not going to the ball with its shoe sales, despite the success of its Cinderella slipper. FT Opening Quote, with commentary by City editor Jonathan Guthrie, is your early Square Mile briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here.
Here follows the second in a series of posts explaining why this week’s RMB depreciation is akin to the Great China Money Market fund breaking the buck. But first a disclaimer! Whilst our analysis errs to the view that the depreciation was driven by market forces and thus inevitable, that’s not to suggest China “the market economy” is bust or about to face a hard landing. We’re very specifically talking about the state-managed part of the external capital account.
To understand what happened in China this week we think the best financial analogy for China’s management of its economy and its external capital account is this: think of it as a giant money market fund. So when the currency was officially devalued three times, it was equivalent to the Great China Money Market (GCMM) fund “breaking the buck”, a rare event when presumed safe investments turn out to not be so safe as thought. We’re going to explain what that means in two posts, the first of which is the extended history of China’s economic management needed to realise how the world got to this point in the first place.
The International Monetary Fund has sent a strong signal that it may walk away from Greece’s new bailout programme, arguing that it will not be able to participate if European creditors do not offer Athens substantial debt relief. The move again raises the pressure on Germany, which has opposed any debt relief, just as it prepares to seek the approval of its parliament to negotiate the details of a new bailout hashed out in a summit at the weekend. Meanwhile, economists remain sceptical that the EUR86bn agreement, which has ensured that Greece remains in the eurozone, will be enough to restore it to good health. (FT) In the news
UPDATING at the top because… well, you’ll see why. From a great Bloomberg piece just out (do read the full thing): So what is Goldin Financial really worth? In his capacious Hong Kong office, furnished with generous touches of faux Louis XV marble and gold, Pan pauses from a game of solitaire and explains… Dealing himself another hand of cards, he said he still might take the company private so he doesn’t have to contend with pressure from minority shareholders. “I am selling performance, not stock price,” he said. And the wealth ranking? Well, that’s just paper. “A genuinely wealthy person would not count his wealth every day,” Pan says. “It’s better if you just leave me off the list.” Easy come, easy go. That’s Goldin Financial and Goldin Properties erasing just some of the 926 per cent and 606 per cent they gained in the past 12 months. And by “some” we mean they have lost more than $25bn from their market capitalisations in under two days.
Two, obviously. Via the Telegraph on a nutty art market and the nutty luxury market more generally: “The prices of so many of these artworks are disproportionate to their art historical importance,” says Josh Spero, the editor of Spear’s, a magazine that caters to the yacht-owning, Picasso-aspiring classes. “It’s all about ‘my Giacometti is bigger than your Giacometti’ now. Will you really get $140 million worth of pleasure from it? I doubt it. But you know you had to outbid three US hedge fund managers and a Russian oligarch to secure it.” What is the point of this, you ask? Is it simply an ironically cheap way to segue into a chunk of BofAML’s belated attempt to create a new asset class called Vanity Capital? Yes.
The biggest news in diamond land is still April’s audacious heist of a Hatton Garden safety deposit company and the theft of up to 70 boxes worth of diamonds. Police by now have a suspect, and parallels between the robbery and the plot of a novel by Michael Connelly are even being noted. What we’d like to draw attention to is something the criminals may not have considered when planning the heist — something that could seriously impede their ability to monetise the loot. Deflation.
You can sign up to receive the email here Russia lifted its self-imposed ban on selling an advanced air-defence systems to Iran, irking world powers thrashing out ways to limit the nuclear programme in the country. The decree, banning delivery of the S-300 system to the Islamic Republic in September 2009, had been imposed under intense diplomatic pressure from the US and Israel. (FT) The move comes at a sensitive point in the negotiations over the nuclear programme, with the White House attempting to sell a framework agreement with Tehran to a highly sceptical US Congress. Secretary of State John Kerry raised the matter in a phone call with the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, the White House said. (BBC)
FF Group is the Greek listed seller of jewellery, watches and accessories behind the Folli Follie chain of stores you may have browsed in departure zones of the world’s better airports. It also owns the Links of London brand, sells plenty of sparkly goods in Asia, has grown sales at a brisk pace, and was largely untroubled by the disruption to Hong Kong shopping caused by democracy protests last year. A few aspects of the business are curious, however. For all the sales and profits, it has generated little cash. Trade receivables, the accounting line for cash to be collected in relation to sales made, are on the high side. And the auditor for the largest subsidiary of a listed company worth almost €2bn, where most of those receivables are found, is a small Hong Kong accounting firm.