European equities

Citi still bullish.

Ditched by MSCI, but embraced by deal-watchers.

If the wider public likes to joke about estate agents in order to feel a bit superior, do property portals do the same? ZPG, owner of the Zoopla portal, does not – but some analysts almost think it should, writes Matthew Vincent. In a trading update this morning, ahead of its annual general meeting, ZPG simply said that in the three months to December 31 it “signed multiple new long-term portal listing and data services agreements with some of the UK’s largest estate agents”.

When does the alternative become mainstream? To dedicated followers of music, it never can and it never should – as those mourning the death of Mark E Smith of The Fall have been noting this morning (even his acclaimed 1985 album This Nation’s Saving Grace was described as “just on the edge of the mainstream” by The Guardian). To dedicated followers of fashion, though, it’s not a life-long distinction, writes Matthew Vincent. Especially not with online fashion pioneer Asos still trading on the Alternative Investment Market – but commanding the market value of a blue-chip FTSE 100 company.

Crest Nicholson shareholders: big-time winners, or small time-losers? It depends on whether you look at the housebuilder’s absolute or relative return, writes Matthew Vincent. Crest’s share price rose by 20 per cent in calendar year 2017, which is an extraordinary 12-month performance… until you realise that its rivals shares rose by an average of 43 per cent.

Good morning. Here is the news. Which could very likely soon not be news. But there is a chance that it might not be non-news. So, for now, it is very big news, writes Matthew Vincent. This morning the Competition and Markets Authority has sensationally ruled that the takeover of Sky by the Murdoch family’s 21st Century Fox is not in the public interest because of its likely effect on media plurality in the UK.

Breaking news alert: a private-sector company providing previously state-run services is not about to collapse, require refinancing, or pay massive bonuses to its former bosses… er, in fact, it has just reported a stronger than expected financial performance. Don’t tell Jeremy Corbyn or John McDonnell. Yes, Royal Mail, the privatised logistics utility that the Labour party leadership and two-thirds of the population think should be renationalised, has issued a nine-month trading update slightly ahead of market expectations, writes Matthew Vincent.

Carillion’s collapse and liquidation are set to have more repercussions today – and provoke more recriminations. Among the more astonishing facts to emerge yesterday was that not a single direct employee had been dismissed from the construction group. “Everyone is still on the payroll,” said the Official Receiver on Monday – including, it would seem, former boss Richard Howson, who stepped down last July but will keep receiving his £660,000 salary and £28,000 of benefits until October.

Carillion’s journey from reporting “an encouraging start to the year”, “new orders” and “increased revenue visibility”, to a writing down of its construction contracts by £845m, to struggling with debt and unpaid suppliers, to entering compulsory liquidation has taken… just 258 days.

Bovis Homes this morning became the latest housebuilder to update on its 2017 performance, emphasising its quality over quantity as it reported 3,645 completions, down from 3,977 in 2016. “There has been a step change in the quality of our homes delivered on completion and I’m pleased to see this reflected in our level of customer satisfaction which continues to improve,” said Greg Fitzgerald, chief executive. Overall average selling prices increased 7 per cent to £272,000 (2016: £254,900k). There are total forward sales of 2,656 units with a value of £518m. Profits before tax, exceptional and one-off items are said to be in-line with management expectation. Bovis reports “excellent progress with balance sheet restructuring resulting in a £145m year end net cash balance”.

Marks and Spencer’s latest innovations in clothing and food show it is still trying to be all things to all people, writes Matthew Vincent. This week, it launched an eclectic plus-size women’s fashion range called ‘Curve’, while at the same time proposing customers lunched on an ascetic vegetarian dish, called ‘Cauliflower Steaks’ (yes, basically two slices of the low-calorie vegetable in a lemon drizzle, costing £2.50). This morning’s third quarter trading update suggests M&S needs the curvature to sell more than the cauliflower.

Because there is an arbitrage opportunity.

Finding it hard to get back to work, after the festive break? Then just imagine how Jeff Fairburn, Persimmon’s chief executive, feels. On New Year’s Eve, he received the first £50m chunk of his controversial £110m bonus. Another 150 executives were due to share some £400m. It’s not likely to make any of them feel a need to leap out of bed this freezing January morning, is it? Or, as Numis prefers to express it, it could lead to problems with senior management retention.

Still got the back-to-work blues? What’s wrong with you? It might only be January 4, but the City’s finest have already successfully implemented – or partly waived – 1.7m paragraphs of new Mifid II regulations, and earned as much as the average employee does all year, writes Matthew Vincent. And it’s almost the weekend again!

Next always seems to go first in reporting what’s happening to retail sales, writes Matthew Vincent. This is perhaps nominally appropriate – and moderately helpful to rivals. In early January 2017, the clothing chain was first to forewarn that rising inflation would hit consumer spending – knocking £948m off its own market capitalisation, but making it easier for Marks & Spencer and others to break their own bad news later on. In 2018, however, it may be easier to be Next than next.

Thursday December 14 will go down in history as the day that the Walt Disney Company wrote a new chapter in the history of a once feared empire, and settled the destiny of one who was taught to wield mysterious power by a wise and wizened old master. But enough of Star Wars, Luke Skywalker and his mentor Yoda, writes Matthew Vincent. In other news, Disney is buying the entertainment assets of the 21st Century Fox empire, and deciding the destiny of James Murdoch, who had run the business for his father: the legendary media mogul Rupert.

Customers are used to be being put on hold by retailers. Retailers are less used to being put on hold by customers, writes Matthew Vincent. But that is exactly what has happened to Dixons Carphonethis year: customers decided to put their mobile phone upgrades on hold, refusing to choose expensive new models, and forced the electricals retailer to ring up a profit warning.

Did you think Local Shopping REIT selling 142 retail properties for £19.3m was dealmaking? No, that’s not property dealmaking. Did you think UK shopping centre owner Hammerson offering £3.2bn for rival Intu was proper dealmaking? No, it’s really not. Unibail-Rodamco, the largest commercial property company in Europe, buying Westfield Corporation for $24.7bn. Now that is property dealmaking, writes Matthew Vincent.

Theresa May is not the only one to secure a political deal in the nick of time, and breathe a sigh of relief, writes Matthew Vincent. Charles Woodburn, chief executive of BAE Systems has managed no less a negotiating feat, but in the Middle East rather than Europe: finalising a £5bn order from Qatar for 24 Typhoon fighter jets – a deal that will safeguard British jobs and ensure UK production of the aircraft into the mid-2020s.

Carillion’s full-year trading statement was always going to be the news this morning, whether it happened or not, writes Matthew Vincent. And those betting on further falls in the stricken construction group’s shares probably had money on “not”. In fact, as of last night, Carillion’s own financial calendar still said: “There is no event/s available for current selection” and the company had not confirmed to news websites that any announcement would be forthcoming today.

Sky’s future ownership looks uncertain (again), as news that 21st Century Fox may yet sell its 39 per cent stake to Disney means Isleworth could still end up as part of the Magic Kingdom, writes Matthew Vincent.

The Bradford-based subprime lender Provident Financial has announced the sudden death on Thursday of its executive chairman Marjit Wolstenhome at the age of 53.

Thomas Cook, the FTSE 250 tour operator, has been offering so called Black Friday discounts a few days early, according to tabloid newspaper bargain hunters, writes Matthew Vincent. And, given every Friday from now until May is forecast to be largely black from 3:00pm to the following 2.55pm, one can see the appeal of £200 off a sunshine break. But such early price cutting is normally a warning sign, according to broadsheet newspaper profit-warning hunters. So does it mean red ink, rather than black, for the company?

EasyJet boss Dame Carolyn McCall is presenting her last set of annual results this morning – before she leaves the budget airline for broadcaster ITV, writes Matthew Vincent. So this is the last time she will have to endure aeronautical puns and metaphors in every single report of the company’s numbers. That said, with some reports suggesting she’s heading to the departure gate with £5m in salary and shares, she may not mind that at all. So, Opening Quote is happy to offer both treatments/(final) approaches.

Bookmaker William Hill is fancied to extend a recent run of good results, writes Matthew Vincent. Analysts at Investec reckon the FTSE 250 group’s low level of hedging on the recent boxing match between Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor will have helped it to outperform rival Ladbrokes Coral.

Marketing types have seized on a quiet Friday for corporate reporting to make an attention-grabbing announcement on the London Stock Exchange’s RNS company news service this morning: “Opportunity to advertise on an iceberg”. “Be the first ever company or individual to have your advertising appear on a real North Atlantic Iceberg and watch as your message goes viral. You’ve heard the expression “it’s only the tip of the iceberg;” be the first to own this expression,” it reads.

Royal Mail’s best result in the last half year has arguably been staving off industrial action ahead of the vital Christmas period, writes Matthew Vincent. It seems the Communication Workers Union – which was disputing pension changes and pay – had not realised a pre-strike mediation agreement was legally binding.

On a relative basis they have almost never been cheaper.

“The global savings glut is reviving after a period of hibernation…”

Shareholders in the London Stock Exchange will vote today on a merger with Deutsche Boerse to create a pan-European exchanges champion. The deal has been cast into doubt by the Brexit referendum, according to some commentators. LSE investors can be expected to vote Yes, not least because the drop in the value of sterling has increased the value of the 46 per cent stake they will take in the merged entity.