Elsewhere on Monday, - Gavyn Davies: “global growth seems firm enough to shrug off the Brexit risk, provided that it is confined mainly to the UK and its direct trading relationships.” - Krugman on trade, jobs, Trump and China. And on Mervyn King’s book. - The myth of cosmopolitanism, and Tyler Cowen steps in to defend Davos.
FT Confidential Research will be hosting an intimate ‘up, close and personal’ China session at the FT’s Festival of Finance this coming Friday at 2pm. It will take place in the M&G Coffee House area and be hosted by FT Confidential Research’s principal for China David Wilder, their chief economist Xiao Qi and head of research Sun Yu. This will be a chance to put your questions directly to the experts and benefit from their unique on the ground, regional perspective. Here follows their analysis of whats’ been going on in China’s shadow banking sector whilst we’ve all been distracted by Brexit. In some respects, Brexit has been a gift for Beijing. The chaos in world markets unleashed by the UK’s vote to leave the European Union means a Chinese hard landing has slipped down the list of potential threats to global stability. Not that Li Keqiang appeared particularly gleeful at this newfound loss of status when he gave his annual address this week to the World Economic Forum in Tianjin. Instead, the premier rolled out his government’s now-familiar tropes about the resilience of Chinese growth and the relative health of the labour market, again dismissing talk of an economic hard landing.
This ontological inequality will separate those who adapt from those who resist – the material winners and losers in all senses of the word. The winners may even benefit from some form of radical human improvement generated by certain segments of the fourth industrial revolution (such as genetic engineering) from which the losers will be deprived. This risks creating class conflicts and other clashes unlike anything we have seen before. An excerpt from The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab, executive chairman of the World Economic Forum.
- Sebastian Edwards on why economic populism always disappoints
- Newly conceivable ideas in economics
- The brief history of Airbnb, and what’s next
- Steven Johnson on how play shaped the modern world
- Michael Mauboussin reflects on thirty years of markets, cognitive biases, luck vs skill, and more
- The social media we deserve
- Trading Places and those frozen orange juice futures
- Language, truth, and Trump
- Keynes vs Hayek — who’s winning now?
- Miriam Leiva, Cuban dissident, on the death of Fidel Castro
A reminder that you’ll have a chance to win a Kindle by recommending ways to improve Alphachat at www.ft.com/alphasurvey. Help us out!
You can sign up here to receive this email each morning. The ECB has been debating plans for a one to two year programme to make monthly purchases of EUR50bn in government bonds. No formal decision had been made last night but it looks set to embark on large scale quantitative easing for the first time in its history. Mario Draghi is expected to announce the decision at 1.30pmGMT today. (FT)
In a forthright opening speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Angela Merkel said that Europe could only recover the confidence of global markets if the weaker European economies boosted their growth and competitiveness with structural reforms, as well as ensuring their debts were sustainable. The FT reports Germany was prepared to show its solidarity, she said, but “what we don’t want is to promise something we will not be able to fulfil”. Germany was prepared to show its solidarity, she said, but “what we don’t want is to promise something we will not be able to fulfil”. In response to calls from the International Monetary Fund this week for much bigger firewalls to protect European sovereign debt from speculative attacks, Ms Merkel questioned whether demands to double or even triple the eurozone rescue funds would be credible. “If Germany promises something that cannot be delivered if the markets attack it hard, then Europe would be left with a wide open flank,” she declared.
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Monday’s FT, Clive Crook: Obama must woo business to winAsked last week what was needed to revive the US economy, Jeff Immelt, chief executive of General Electric, told the FT: “It’s a little bit on policy, a lot on tone.” In his move last week to appoint Immelt the chair of a new advisory panel on jobs and competitiveness, Barack Obama, wondering what he must do to revive his presidency, may have come to the same conclusion, writes the FT columnist.="http:>