One of the challenges of understanding the consequences of Brexit is the apparent lack of precedent for such an event. But this pre-supposes that only the recent past is relevant. If instead we use the full sweep of history, then we can find the obvious precedent of the English Reformation that started in 1534. … the “Brexit” of 1534 was far from straightforward, and nor did it stop conflict within the country. As for the economic consequences, GDP per capita barely changed for one hundred years after before falling sharply during the Civil War. It took colonial expansion, notably to India, and later in the industrial revolution in the 1700s for growth to really pick up in England. – That’s from Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez, with a bonus chart too.
Brexit was one of the biggest events of 2016, and has naturally triggered a fair bit of contemplation in the hedge fund industry, where money managers are now pondering the short and long term implications. Here is a selection of some of the Brexit points made in the second-quarter letters sent to investors by a batch of hedge funds. Most were sent out in July, but many of their thoughts remain very current.