Alan Taylor on financialisation, business cycles, and crises; and a mid-year review

  1. Angela Nagle on identity politics and puritanical internet purges
  2. Nouriel Roubini outlines the 2020 recession risk
  3. Will Davies on populism, data and experts.
  4. Robert Kaplan on jobs, oil and credit
  5. Mithril Capital's Ajay Royan on the next growth frontier
  6. Banking culture since the crisis
  7. Weak spots and worries in the global financial system
  8. The most complicated debt restructuring in history
  9. Yanis Varoufakis on “radical Europeanism”, erratic Marxism and... Pamela Anderson
  10. Alphachat on immigration: This time is (mostly) like the others
  11. Our Bond villain technocracy
  12. Is the eurozone fixable?
  13. Could climate change spark the next financial crisis?
  14. Mehrsa Baradaran on “opportunity zones”
  15. The math wizard who became a customer loyalty scheme guru
  16. Alphachat is back! Vol 2.
  17. Alphachat is back! Vol. 1
  18. Jim Millstein discusses the financialisation of America
  19. Alphachat is on hiatus this week
  20. Benn Steil explains the Marshall Plan
  21. Marcel Fratzscher on the dark side of the German economy — now with transcript!!
  22. Marcel Fratzscher explores the dark side of the German economy
  23. Emi Nakamura on calculating inflation
  24. Stephanie Kelton explains how the government budget affects the economy and the mechanics of student debt forgiveness
  25. Jonathan Knee explains 25 years of Wall Street’s evolution
  26. Marcus Noland explains the North Korean economy
  27. Brad Setser explains how corporate tax policy affects the balance of payments
  28. Michele Wucker explains “Gray Rhinos”
  29. Listen - The "gray rhino" theory
  30. James Heckman tells us why IQ is overrated
  31. Mihir Desai explains the wisdom of finance — Now with transcript!
  32. Mihir Desai explains the Wisdom of Finance
  33. Can we avoid another financial crisis?
  34. Hirschmania, the final chapter
  35. The life and speeches of Sadie Alexander
  36. Kim Rueben on the fiscal impact of immigration
  37. A sit down with Adair Turner
  38. Stephen Kotkin explains how Stalin defined the Soviet system
  39. Richard Florida on geographic inequality
  40. Further reading
  41. Jeremy Adelman on Albert O Hirschman’s “Exit, Voice & Loyalty”
  42. Dan Drezner on the marketplace of ideas
  43. Robert Lustig on the science behind our addictions
  44. The economic impact of immigration
  45. Further reading
  46. Ricardo Hausmann on the tragedy in Venezuela
  47. Does Amazon present an anti-trust problem?
  48. Mary Waters on the integration of immigrants into the US
  49. Lee Buchheit and Mitu Gulati on Venezuela’s debt
  50. Gabriel Zucman on tax evasion and inequality
  51. Michael Pettis on the mechanics of trade and the Chinese economy
  52. Angus Deaton on his Nobel prize-winning career (encore)
  53. Tim Harford on the lessons of new technologies in economic history
  54. Encore episode — Heidi Williams on gene sequencing, patent design, and innovation incentives
  55. Retail hype vs retail facts
  56. Michael Mandel on the case for productivity optimism
  57. Is Ireland an austerity poster child or a “beautiful freak”?
  58. Richard Ocejo on old jobs in new urban economies
  59. A chat with Alice Rivlin on her career in economic policymaking
  60. The life and ideas of Albert O Hirschman (Part 1)
  61. Jason Furman on economic policymaking
  62. Tyler Cowen’s stubborn philosophical attachments
  63. Anne Case on mortality and morbidity in the 21st Century
  64. An all-media Alphachat episode
  65. Robert Cialdini on how persuasion works in business and politics (transcript)
  66. Adaptive markets, and the lessons of an infamous call to sell
  67. How economics has evolved since the crisis
  68. Erica Grieder on the Texas model
  69. An experiment in Kenya
  70. Sebastian Edwards on why economic populism always disappoints
  71. Newly conceivable ideas in economics
  72. The brief history of Airbnb, and what’s next
  73. Steven Johnson on how play shaped the modern world
  74. Michael Mauboussin reflects on thirty years of markets, cognitive biases, luck vs skill, and more
  75. The social media we deserve
  76. Trading Places and those frozen orange juice futures
  77. Language, truth, and Trump
  78. Keynes vs Hayek — who’s winning now?
  79. Miriam Leiva, Cuban dissident, on the death of Fidel Castro
  80. From the Trump to the Tramp
  81. The Trump economy
  82. The psychology and neuroscience of financial decisions
  83. Comparing the candidates’ tax plans, and a GBP view from the US
  84. Tim Harford on the unheralded virtue of messiness
  85. Ryan Avent on the social capital of firms, development economics, and monetary policy
  86. Dan Drezner on forecasting the next-gen political economy
  87. Alphachat bonus episode: Arlie Russell Hochschild’s guide to Trumpland
  88. The problem with drug pricing
  89. The egregiously protectionist dairy racket in… Canada?
  90. Alphachat’s inaugural film review tackles Tron and Tron Legacy
  91. Heidi Williams and the economics of gene sequencing, patent design, and innovation incentives
  92. Gavyn Davies and Tyler Cowen on the productivity puzzle
  93. Alphachat guide: the tradeoffs of city life, and a new era for the business of mixed martial arts
  94. Vox-pop from Camp Alphaville; “Overrated/Underrated” with Tyler Cowen; and the JPM pay bump
  95. Fact-checking Brexit claims with Tim Harford
  96. ETFs see jolt of volume as global markets gyrate
  97. McDonald’s as community center, the two Americas, and the reputation of Wall Street workers
  98. Merging with our longform podcast; responding to listeners; Heather Boushey on the economics of work and life
  99. Maria Konnikova on social-science methods, cognitive biases, and the psychology of cons
  100. Hedge fund problems, performance and personalities
  101. Guy Debelle on the Fed, China, and FX
  102. Private equity’s mark-to-fantasy problem, and the political economy of gangster states
  103. Oil and savings; and tax havens in… South Dakota?
  104. Behavioural economics at work; positional goods
  105. Under-appreciated moments in economic history; mid-career switches; “The Age of Stagnation”
  106. Alternative data mining, earnings season, and Meb Faber on hedge funds
  107. The psychology and study of expertise; and the future for Disney
  108. CEO humiliation; the future of wearables; and the problems at Valeant and Theranos
  109. The Cuban economy, and Caroline Freund on emerging-market billionaires
  110. Why open-plan offices are terrible; new geopolitical risks; and global female labour force participation
  111. Dodgy corporate jet use, NGDP targeting, and the battle over IEX
  112. Super Tuesday, money in politics, and what happened to the “libertarian moment”?
  113. A new hemp SEF; AI investing; Mohamed El-Erian’s new book
  114. The legacy of China’s one-child policy; and the fall of Theranos
  115. Michael Pettis on the Chinese economy, plus the US election and conservative talk radio
  116. Mauboussin on short-termism; millenials staying put; Perella vs Kramer
  117. Cyber-security, Detroit vs Silicon Valley, and markets mayhem
  118. Whether Davos matters, the end of privacy, and the economics of aging
  119. America’s eBay for guns, the gadgets of CES, and predictions for 2016
  120. The FT’s US newsroom wraps up the year, looks ahead
  121. The life of a dissident Cuban economist; a Mexico-US free travel zone; “Hamilton”!
  122. What happens after rates rise, the shrinking middle class and pay equity
  123. The future of BlackBerry, the renminbi, and George Lucas’s gift to Chicago
  124. The US SUV boom, Jamaica’s IMF success and a chat with Reihan Salam
  125. Robots, artificial intelligence and a sluggish shopping season
  126. The power of talk and mythical startup valuations
  127. Jon Stewart to HBO, Soros bails on Gross, tech for the aging, and our longform suggestions
  128. Pharma madness (Valeant, Pfizer-Allergan), and a few Angus Deaton clips
  129. Bernanke’s book, the TV landscape, and the Canadian election
  130. The podcasting biz; AB InBev to buy SABMiller; and the problem with foolproofing the economy
  131. Vox-pop from the #FTPubQuiz, Jack Dorsey’s return to Twitter, and Martin Wolf on secular stagnation
  132. Anne-Marie Slaughter on gender equality, invisible Xi, and Emily Parker on the Internet in Cuba
  133. FT Alphachat Robert Shiller, Martin Wolf, and a tough week for biotech
  134. Alphachat Youtube stars, a terrible Republican debate, and the Fed holds (sorry)
  135. Alphachat The promise (and the risks) of drones
  136. Alphachat Joe Stiglitz on minimum wage, monetary policy, TPP and more
  137. The Chinese economy, and the dodgy Flibanserin (fine, the “female Viagra”)
  138. The problems of indexed investing, “People’s QE”, and old media invests in new
  139. Reader Q&A, bank analyst destiny, Puerto Rican default and the Canadian elections
  140. Nikkei buys the FT, Gillian Tett’s forthcoming new book, and an Alphavillain returns from Greece
  141. The Fifa scandal, a big week for tech, and Gawker
  142. The artisanal economy, Treasury flash crash (still not) explained, campaign Twitter spats
  143. The podcast moment, and some recommendations
  144. Alphachat Diane Coyle, Tyler Cowen, and the econ books of the year
  145. When bank capital sleeps with the fishes
  146. MF Global nostalgia edition
  147. Those fracking robots edition
  148. Michael Pettis edition (well, the second one)
  149. Alphachat Manmohan Singh on collateral chains
  150. Alphachat Noah Smith on the Japanese economy
  151. Abenomics gets the Alphachat podcast treatment
  152. Lee Buchheit edition, featuring Lee Buchheit
  153. That dang negativity edition
  154. Dragons of Ljubljana edition
  155. The cunning plan edition
  156. Snap Cyprus edition
  157. Alphachat returns
  158. Sal Arnuk on high frequency trading
  159. Podcast bleg: Alphachat returns
  160. Introducing Alphachat, the FT Alphaville podcast

Alphachat is available on Acast, iTunes and Stitcher.

Notes for this week’s episode, for which I was joined as co-host by Matt Klein of Alphaville, are below:

Credit and crises
[1:56]

Alan Taylor is an economic historian at the University of California – Davis. In a recent paper with collaborators Oscar Jorda and Moritz Schularick, the authors summarise their decades-long work on financialisation, which we discussed with Alan.

From the paper:

Our previous research uncovered a key stylized fact of modern macroeconomic history: the “financial hockey stick.” The ratio of aggregate private credit to income in advanced economies has surged to unprecedented levels over the second half of the 20th century.

The goal of this paper is to show that with this “great leveraging” key business cycle moments have become increasingly correlated with financial variables. Our long-run data show that business cycles in high-debt economies may not be especially volatile, but are more negatively skewed. Higher debt goes hand in hand with worse tail events.

A great deal of modern macroeconomic thought has relied on the small sample of US post-WW2 experience to formulate, calibrate, and test models of the business cycle, to calculate the welfare costs of fluctuations, and to analyze the benefits of stabilization policies. Yet the historical macroeconomic cross country experience is richer.

An important contribution of this paper is to introduce a new comprehensive macro-financial historical database covering 17 advanced economies over the last 150 years. This considerable data collection effort that has occupied the better part of a decade, and involved a small army of research assistants.

See more of Alan’s work here, here, and here.

Mid-year review
[18:57]

Matt and I are joined by Emiliya to discuss some of the events of the year’s first half. Matt has been struck by the Fed’s realisation that it would not be able to raise rates at the pace it expected at the end of last year. Emiliya has been troubled by the rise of populist sentiment throughout the developed world, and we talk about the role that income inequality has (and hasn’t) played. Relatedly, I’ve been dispirited by how the same populist sentiment has manifested in such loud and ugly attitudes towards immigrants and refugees.

Longform recommendations

Alan Taylor – Between Debt and the Devil and The End of Alchemy
Matt Klein – “The gun control we deserve”
Emiliya Mychasuk – Interpol Confidential
Cardiff Garcia – Marketplace Weekend podcast

  1. Angela Nagle on identity politics and puritanical internet purges
  2. Nouriel Roubini outlines the 2020 recession risk
  3. Will Davies on populism, data and experts.
  4. Robert Kaplan on jobs, oil and credit
  5. Mithril Capital's Ajay Royan on the next growth frontier
  6. Banking culture since the crisis
  7. Weak spots and worries in the global financial system
  8. The most complicated debt restructuring in history
  9. Yanis Varoufakis on “radical Europeanism”, erratic Marxism and... Pamela Anderson
  10. Alphachat on immigration: This time is (mostly) like the others
  11. Our Bond villain technocracy
  12. Is the eurozone fixable?
  13. Could climate change spark the next financial crisis?
  14. Mehrsa Baradaran on “opportunity zones”
  15. The math wizard who became a customer loyalty scheme guru
  16. Alphachat is back! Vol 2.
  17. Alphachat is back! Vol. 1
  18. Jim Millstein discusses the financialisation of America
  19. Alphachat is on hiatus this week
  20. Benn Steil explains the Marshall Plan
  21. Marcel Fratzscher on the dark side of the German economy — now with transcript!!
  22. Marcel Fratzscher explores the dark side of the German economy
  23. Emi Nakamura on calculating inflation
  24. Stephanie Kelton explains how the government budget affects the economy and the mechanics of student debt forgiveness
  25. Jonathan Knee explains 25 years of Wall Street’s evolution
  26. Marcus Noland explains the North Korean economy
  27. Brad Setser explains how corporate tax policy affects the balance of payments
  28. Michele Wucker explains “Gray Rhinos”
  29. Listen - The "gray rhino" theory
  30. James Heckman tells us why IQ is overrated
  31. Mihir Desai explains the wisdom of finance — Now with transcript!
  32. Mihir Desai explains the Wisdom of Finance
  33. Can we avoid another financial crisis?
  34. Hirschmania, the final chapter
  35. The life and speeches of Sadie Alexander
  36. Kim Rueben on the fiscal impact of immigration
  37. A sit down with Adair Turner
  38. Stephen Kotkin explains how Stalin defined the Soviet system
  39. Richard Florida on geographic inequality
  40. Further reading
  41. Jeremy Adelman on Albert O Hirschman’s “Exit, Voice & Loyalty”
  42. Dan Drezner on the marketplace of ideas
  43. Robert Lustig on the science behind our addictions
  44. The economic impact of immigration
  45. Further reading
  46. Ricardo Hausmann on the tragedy in Venezuela
  47. Does Amazon present an anti-trust problem?
  48. Mary Waters on the integration of immigrants into the US
  49. Lee Buchheit and Mitu Gulati on Venezuela’s debt
  50. Gabriel Zucman on tax evasion and inequality
  51. Michael Pettis on the mechanics of trade and the Chinese economy
  52. Angus Deaton on his Nobel prize-winning career (encore)
  53. Tim Harford on the lessons of new technologies in economic history
  54. Encore episode — Heidi Williams on gene sequencing, patent design, and innovation incentives
  55. Retail hype vs retail facts
  56. Michael Mandel on the case for productivity optimism
  57. Is Ireland an austerity poster child or a “beautiful freak”?
  58. Richard Ocejo on old jobs in new urban economies
  59. A chat with Alice Rivlin on her career in economic policymaking
  60. The life and ideas of Albert O Hirschman (Part 1)
  61. Jason Furman on economic policymaking
  62. Tyler Cowen’s stubborn philosophical attachments
  63. Anne Case on mortality and morbidity in the 21st Century
  64. An all-media Alphachat episode
  65. Robert Cialdini on how persuasion works in business and politics (transcript)
  66. Adaptive markets, and the lessons of an infamous call to sell
  67. How economics has evolved since the crisis
  68. Erica Grieder on the Texas model
  69. An experiment in Kenya
  70. Sebastian Edwards on why economic populism always disappoints
  71. Newly conceivable ideas in economics
  72. The brief history of Airbnb, and what’s next
  73. Steven Johnson on how play shaped the modern world
  74. Michael Mauboussin reflects on thirty years of markets, cognitive biases, luck vs skill, and more
  75. The social media we deserve
  76. Trading Places and those frozen orange juice futures
  77. Language, truth, and Trump
  78. Keynes vs Hayek — who’s winning now?
  79. Miriam Leiva, Cuban dissident, on the death of Fidel Castro
  80. From the Trump to the Tramp
  81. The Trump economy
  82. The psychology and neuroscience of financial decisions
  83. Comparing the candidates’ tax plans, and a GBP view from the US
  84. Tim Harford on the unheralded virtue of messiness
  85. Ryan Avent on the social capital of firms, development economics, and monetary policy
  86. Dan Drezner on forecasting the next-gen political economy
  87. Alphachat bonus episode: Arlie Russell Hochschild’s guide to Trumpland
  88. The problem with drug pricing
  89. The egregiously protectionist dairy racket in… Canada?
  90. Alphachat’s inaugural film review tackles Tron and Tron Legacy
  91. Heidi Williams and the economics of gene sequencing, patent design, and innovation incentives
  92. Gavyn Davies and Tyler Cowen on the productivity puzzle
  93. Alphachat guide: the tradeoffs of city life, and a new era for the business of mixed martial arts
  94. Vox-pop from Camp Alphaville; “Overrated/Underrated” with Tyler Cowen; and the JPM pay bump
  95. Fact-checking Brexit claims with Tim Harford
  96. ETFs see jolt of volume as global markets gyrate
  97. McDonald’s as community center, the two Americas, and the reputation of Wall Street workers
  98. Merging with our longform podcast; responding to listeners; Heather Boushey on the economics of work and life
  99. Maria Konnikova on social-science methods, cognitive biases, and the psychology of cons
  100. Hedge fund problems, performance and personalities
  101. Guy Debelle on the Fed, China, and FX
  102. Private equity’s mark-to-fantasy problem, and the political economy of gangster states
  103. Oil and savings; and tax havens in… South Dakota?
  104. Behavioural economics at work; positional goods
  105. Under-appreciated moments in economic history; mid-career switches; “The Age of Stagnation”
  106. Alternative data mining, earnings season, and Meb Faber on hedge funds
  107. The psychology and study of expertise; and the future for Disney
  108. CEO humiliation; the future of wearables; and the problems at Valeant and Theranos
  109. The Cuban economy, and Caroline Freund on emerging-market billionaires
  110. Why open-plan offices are terrible; new geopolitical risks; and global female labour force participation
  111. Dodgy corporate jet use, NGDP targeting, and the battle over IEX
  112. Super Tuesday, money in politics, and what happened to the “libertarian moment”?
  113. A new hemp SEF; AI investing; Mohamed El-Erian’s new book
  114. The legacy of China’s one-child policy; and the fall of Theranos
  115. Michael Pettis on the Chinese economy, plus the US election and conservative talk radio
  116. Mauboussin on short-termism; millenials staying put; Perella vs Kramer
  117. Cyber-security, Detroit vs Silicon Valley, and markets mayhem
  118. Whether Davos matters, the end of privacy, and the economics of aging
  119. America’s eBay for guns, the gadgets of CES, and predictions for 2016
  120. The FT’s US newsroom wraps up the year, looks ahead
  121. The life of a dissident Cuban economist; a Mexico-US free travel zone; “Hamilton”!
  122. What happens after rates rise, the shrinking middle class and pay equity
  123. The future of BlackBerry, the renminbi, and George Lucas’s gift to Chicago
  124. The US SUV boom, Jamaica’s IMF success and a chat with Reihan Salam
  125. Robots, artificial intelligence and a sluggish shopping season
  126. The power of talk and mythical startup valuations
  127. Jon Stewart to HBO, Soros bails on Gross, tech for the aging, and our longform suggestions
  128. Pharma madness (Valeant, Pfizer-Allergan), and a few Angus Deaton clips
  129. Bernanke’s book, the TV landscape, and the Canadian election
  130. The podcasting biz; AB InBev to buy SABMiller; and the problem with foolproofing the economy
  131. Vox-pop from the #FTPubQuiz, Jack Dorsey’s return to Twitter, and Martin Wolf on secular stagnation
  132. Anne-Marie Slaughter on gender equality, invisible Xi, and Emily Parker on the Internet in Cuba
  133. FT Alphachat Robert Shiller, Martin Wolf, and a tough week for biotech
  134. Alphachat Youtube stars, a terrible Republican debate, and the Fed holds (sorry)
  135. Alphachat The promise (and the risks) of drones
  136. Alphachat Joe Stiglitz on minimum wage, monetary policy, TPP and more
  137. The Chinese economy, and the dodgy Flibanserin (fine, the “female Viagra”)
  138. The problems of indexed investing, “People’s QE”, and old media invests in new
  139. Reader Q&A, bank analyst destiny, Puerto Rican default and the Canadian elections
  140. Nikkei buys the FT, Gillian Tett’s forthcoming new book, and an Alphavillain returns from Greece
  141. The Fifa scandal, a big week for tech, and Gawker
  142. The artisanal economy, Treasury flash crash (still not) explained, campaign Twitter spats
  143. The podcast moment, and some recommendations
  144. Alphachat Diane Coyle, Tyler Cowen, and the econ books of the year
  145. When bank capital sleeps with the fishes
  146. MF Global nostalgia edition
  147. Those fracking robots edition
  148. Michael Pettis edition (well, the second one)
  149. Alphachat Manmohan Singh on collateral chains
  150. Alphachat Noah Smith on the Japanese economy
  151. Abenomics gets the Alphachat podcast treatment
  152. Lee Buchheit edition, featuring Lee Buchheit
  153. That dang negativity edition
  154. Dragons of Ljubljana edition
  155. The cunning plan edition
  156. Snap Cyprus edition
  157. Alphachat returns
  158. Sal Arnuk on high frequency trading
  159. Podcast bleg: Alphachat returns
  160. Introducing Alphachat, the FT Alphaville podcast
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