Good morning New York,
FT ALPHAVILLE
Walsh’s record at Diageo, charted: Paul took a moment to consider the record of Paul Walsh, who on Tuesday announced his departure from Diageo after 13 years as chief executive. While the share price has more than trebled to £19.76 under his tenure, average shares in issue has fallen from circa 3.4bn to 2.5bn currently. Over 13 years, the market cap has grown from £20bn to £50bn, but capital appreciation has been rather better. (FT’s take)
There goes all that Oz yield: Economists mostly failed to predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut rates to a record low of 2.75 per cent at its monthly meeting today, notes Kate. Central banks like to be able to surprise, but what caught the strategists (less so the rates markets) unaware was the cut coming after little sign of serious deterioration in the economy.
What did the Danish negative rate experience tell us? Simon Hinrichsen, FT Alphaville’s eyes and ears in Copenhagen, takes a look at the results of Denmark’s experiment with negative rates and concludes that while the effects will have been skewed by Denmark’s need to maintain a euro peg, the move had a number of unintended consequences, among them damage to the profitability of the banks, increased risk of banks lifting lending rates and an overall liquidity draining effect.
Current account imbalances since the crisis: Cardiff highlights a chart from a recent Barclays report on global trade, which shows global imbalances are declining. This is a sign that deliberate policy choices to build imbalances are being overturned. Smaller overall imbalances are what you would expect to see as these countries evolve in the direction of their developed country predecessors, and as their domestic bond markets (especially local-currency bond markets) continue to mature.
NEWS
Draghi talked up ECB’s readiness to act in a speech yesterday: “We will watch all the incoming data on the euro-area economy in the next weeks and if necessary we’ll be ready to take further action,” Draghi said, departing from a prepared speech at LUISS university in Rome to emphasize a point made last week at the ECB’s monthly news conference.” (Wall Street Journal)
China wants to water down key World Bank report: “According to people close to the matter, China wants to eliminate the ranking of countries in the Doing Business report, which compares business regulations – such as the difficulty of starting a company – in 185 different nations.” China and other critics, including trade unions, international aid charities and some other developing countries, last year successfully pushed for an independent review of the report. “But a number of people involved in the process complain” that two longstanding critics of the report are advisers to the panel, which is due to report by the end of May. This year the report ranked China 91st out of 185 economies. (Financial Times)
HSBC first-quarter profits jump to $8.4bn as bad debts fall: HSBC said its first-quarter profits almost doubled from a year ago to more than $8bn as bad debts fell and the bank benefited from a three-year radical restructuring plan. Europe’s biggest bank on Tuesday reported a pre-tax profit of $8.4bn, an increase of $4.3bn from a year earlier. Losses from bad debts fell 51 per cent to $1.2bn. (Financial Times)
The IMF warned that Greece’s debt remains “much too high” and European commitments to lighten it are welcome. The report highlights the need for future “official sector involvement” in Greece’s bailout. (Wall Street Journal)
Australia’s central bank cut rates to a record low. The RBA cut by 25bps to 2.75%. The Australian dollar fell 0.7 per cent against the US dollar in response. (Statement) (Financial Times)
“Microsoft is preparing to reverse course over key elements of its Windows 8 operating system, marking one of the most prominent admissions of failure for a new mass-market consumer product since Coca-Cola’s New Coke fiasco nearly 30 years ago.” (Financial Times)
Rio Tinto plans to press ahead with a multibillion-dollar expansion of its iron ore mines in Western Australia barring a significant change to the supply-demand balance for the steelmaking commodity or a further increase in production costs. Sam Walsh, Rio chief executive, told institutional investors at meetings in Sydney this week that a $5bn plan to increase annual output from its Pilbara mines to 360m tonnes by 2015 would be put before the board of the Anglo-Australian resources group for approval later this year, according to two people present at the briefing. (Financial Times)
Former KPMG auditor friend agrees to plead guilty: “The California jeweler who gave a former KPMG auditor cash, an expensive watch and concert tickets in exchange for inside information about public companies agreed on Monday to plead guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, according to court papers. (Reuters)
Credit Agricole’s reports 51 per cent rise in first quarter profit: Net income at France’s third largest bank rose to 469m euros ($613m) from 311m euros a year earlie. That topped the 374.4m-euro average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg)
Three JP Morgan investors are yet to be persuaded on backing the company in a vote on whether Jamie Dimon should retain his dual role of chairman and chief exectuive. BlackRock, Vanguard and Fidelity Investments, who together hold more than 12% of the company’s shares, all remain undecided, said people close to the firms. The votes will be tallied on May 21. (Wall Street Journal)
New York attorney general Eric Schneiderman plans to sue Bank of America and Wells Fargo over claims they violated terms of the National Mortgage Settlement, a sweeping $26bn pact brokered last year between five of the nation’s biggest banks and 49 state attorneys general. He said the two banks didn’t follow guidelines on how banks field and process requests from homeowners trying to modify their mortgages, which formed part of the settlement’s terms. (NYT DealBook)
US regulators eyeing Bitcoin supervision: The currency “is for sure something we need to explore”, Bart Chilton, one of the five commissioners at the CFTC told the Financial Times. A person familiar with the CFTC’s thinking said that the regulator is “seriously” examining the issue. (Financial Times)
Biggest EU economies back moves to support carbon prices: “Ministers from Germany, France and the UK, along with those from four other countries, have issued a joint statement, seen by the Financial Times, declaring that it is time to end “myths over the potential costs and risks” of bolstering the EU’s battered emissions trading system.” However confusion remains over Germany’s position. (Financial Times)
Markets: Global stocks were at fresh cyclical highs as Australia’s central bank added to the trend of easier monetary policy. Tokyo shares surged to their best level in nearly five years as Japanese markets reopened after a two-day holiday in which the yen fell, the European Central Bank cut rates and US jobs data beat estimates.The combination of revived optimism over the world’s biggest economy and ongoing central bank largesse – most notably from the large asset purchase programmes of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan – saw the FTSE All-World equity index was up 0.4 per cent to 245.2, its highest level since June 2008. That “Goldilocks” scenario – growth that is not too cold but not so hot that it precludes central bank assistance – also helped Wall Street’s S&P 500 close Monday’s session at a record high of 1,617.5, though futures suggested the benchmark would dip 1 point when the opening bell rings later on Tuesday, wrote the FT’s Global Markets unsullied, Jamie Chisholm (Financial Times)
