It’s no secret that the US government is trying to prop up house prices.

Its various programmes, Hamp, MHA, tax incentives, etc., have been explicitly linked to higher house prices before — most notably in Sigtarp’s first-quarter report to Congress. Raising house prices can be politically popular, and helps out the banks — at least in the short-term.

But if you want to see just how much of an impact federal initiatives have had on home prices, look no further. On Monday, the US Treasury and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) began publishing a monthly ‘Housing Scorecard,’ which lays it out pretty clearly.

Here’s the graphic:

The light blue line represents forecast house prices based on futures as of January 2009 — before President Obama began his various housing initiatives in February. The dark blue line is actual prices and projected prices based on June 2010 futures. The difference between the two is attributed by the US administration to its own housing programmes. It’s a wee (artificially propped) housing bubble.

The difficulty for house prices, then, is when the government’s efforts start slowing down.

Not to mention, as ever, questions over moral hazard.

Related links:
Extend and pretend in US housing is reeeaaally extended – FT Alphaville
The slow death of Hamp, the summer of delinquencies – FT Alphaville
Hamp, what is it good for? – FT Alphaville
Shadow bank losses – FT Alphaville

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