Posts tagged 'Yen'

I see currency wars

The first rule of currency wars is: you always talk about currency wars.

The second rule is: you can always find one to talk about if you look hard enough.

This month’s FX war location of choice is Asia, and here with its proximate cause is BNP Paribas (our emphasis): Read more

Widowmaker of all widowmakers?

It’s probably too early to say concretely that the great yen short of Abenomics has turned into the widowmaker of all widowmakers.

But evidence in favour of such a suggestion is certainly mounting by the day.

We present some examples from the commentary space… Read more

Nikkei, rot to rout

Slightly wearying, all this see-sawing in Japan. The Nikkei fell more than 6 per cent at one point on Thursday, though it had rallied a bit at pixel time. Still heading towards bear territory.

Some Nikkei investors spotted leaving the scene on Wednesday: Read more

The Yen (again!)

Just to note…

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No longer partying as it’s Y99

That’s the yen on the left hitting Y99.69 at pixel and the Nikkei, right, having lost nearly half of its speedy 2013 gains since May 22 (click to enlarge):

A disgusted Shinzo Abe appears after the break…

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Intended consequences and the yen

From the pen of South Korea over the weekend:

South Korea has warned that G8 leaders need to do more to tackle the “unintended consequences” of Japan’s monetary easing when they gather for a summit later this month amid mounting concerns about the knock-on effects of a weaker yen.

In an interview, Hyun Oh-seok, the South Korean finance minister and deputy prime minister, said that international co-ordinated action was needed to mitigate the impact of so-called Abenomics on currency markets.

First: “unintended consequences”? Not sure about that. It all seems very intentional from where we’re sitting. Read more

That soaraway Nikkei and the yen

Spot the outliers:

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Bird, plane, Abe

One for the mantelpiece, Mr Abe:

(Click through the pic for the Economist article) Read more

Japan and the curious incident of the dog in the night-time

Header credit goes to UBS’s Paul Donovan, the source of the piece of Japanese skepticism that follows. He takes us first to Sherlock Holmes’ “Silver Blaze”:

Gregory: “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”

Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.”

Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.”

Holmes: “That was the curious incident.”

A strong opening gambit, as yen tales go. Read more

USDJPY 100, eh?

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USD/JPwhy?

By Theo Casey, marketcolor

The loss of simple narratives in forex is something we are learning to deal with together. To continue navigating major and minor crosses we need to make complex narratives more digestible.

Consider dollar-yen. It’s behaving like the bought end of a carry trade. Read more

The risk of yen reversal

The yen has gained back 2.4 per cent against the US dollar since it threatened but failed to break Y100 ahead of the most recent, and quiet, Bank of Japan meeting — the first since April 4, when QE on steroids was announced.

Now, we are not suggesting this is definitely the start of a yen correction — if we could predict FX moves for sure we’d be on a yacht, Japan isn’t lacking the political will to give it a further shot, this dip is small in context and we’ve seen its like before — but there is clearly a threat.

Simon Derrick, chief global markets strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, sent through a few thoughts which we think capture that threat quite nicely: Read more

On the virtuous circle of exporting deflation

We thought the following from TD Securities’ Richard Gilhooly on Tuesday was a rather insightful way of looking at the whole BoJ effect (our emphasis):

While it remains a contentious point and as yet unproven, Japan’s devaluation and soaring Nikkei vs slumping DAX or Bovespa has all the hallmarks of a competitive devaluation. While competing factions debate the Monetary expansion/QQE, versus beggar-thy-neighbour interpretation, one positive aspect of the Japanese Yen collapse and fear of exported deflation has been collapsing commodity prices with weak growth in export countries (China, Germany, S Korea) and a stronger USD helping a supply story (crude inventories at 22yr highs) and weak demand send commodities into a bear market.

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Stumbling JGBs

Something to keep an eye on (the respective reaction of the 6mth, 2-year, 5-year, 10-year and 30-year JGBs to the BoJ’s QE onslaught):

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Guest post: QE on steroids in Japan

This is is a guest post from Philip Pilkington, a writer and research assistant at Kingston University.

In January of this year I noted that the Japanese government was embarking on a stimulus programme and briefly enquired into whether it would likely work or not . At the time media commentary was mixed. Some were saying that it would be a complete failure while others were overflowing with optimism. I was slightly more reserved. Read more

Be excited, be, be excited: BoJ edition

Seemingly everybody is benefiting from the Bank of Japan’s decision to splash the cash. Peripheral bond yields in Europe have fallen and high-yielding carry targets such as Mexico and Brazil are being touted as destinations for Kuroda’s cash.

Where that cash ends up will in many ways define the success or failure of the Abe/ Kuroda push since what really matters is what happens after the cash has left the BoJ. Read more

The BoJ massive

Gloves off from Kuroda and everyone is very excited…

For those who need a rundown of what the BoJ actually did, here’s a summary from Nomura: Read more

Presenting… the new BoJ [Updated]

At least, markets are sure it’s a new dawn for Japanese monetary policy. And yeah, we know: this sort of initial euphoria has fizzled out before — but the new Bank of Japan governors appear to have actually come through with the goods:

BoJ statement pic

Click screenshot for the statement. More to come soon, and in the meantime, see this from the FT’s Ben McLannahan: Read more

Expectations reconsidered at the BoJ

Two charts for your morning consideration:

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Unlike the rest of the world’s central bankers, athletics aren’t Kuroda’s forte

He struggled as a young bureaucrat on a climb with officials and journalists up a 1,500-meter (4,900-foot) mountain in Nagano Prefecture, to the west of Tokyo, according to Utsumi, now president of Japan Credit Rating Agency Ltd. Kuroda “got exhausted and said he’d never do it again,” he said. “He’s not the sporty type.”

Metaphors aside we can ignore that but the rest of Bloomberg’s profile of the man set to take over at the Bank of Japan is worth a read. After all Kuroda has to convince the Japanese that Abenomics is for real now that much of the easy lifting has already been done. Read more

We seek inflation here, we seek inflation there…

… the Japanese seek inflation everywhere.

All this talk about Japan, JGB bond yields, QE, the yen… and hardly ever does anyone throw up the following chart.

So, without further ado, here is the most important Japanese chart of all courtesy of Capital Economics… the CPI: Read more

Don’t kill the old, pander to them

“Whatever we can”, you say? Encouraging words from BoJ governor nominee Kuroda over the weekend (even if comparisons with Mr Draghi are overblown). If Cullen Roche is correct, what happens in Japan over the next year or many could change the future of economic policy. So it’s worth spending a bit more time on what Kuroda’s “can” might actually be.

We’ve argued already that much of the low-hanging fruit of expectations and verbal intervention has already been plucked. Read more

Shinzo Abe’s phaser

Gotta love a good contrarian yen call.

As we’ve written multiple times, the yen’s recent fall been based on policy which has yet to appear, namely on expectations of Abenomics. Japanese authorities have done an excellent job of short-term monetary fear-mongering, but as Gavyn Davies put it recently there is a severe risk that the international hedge funds which have been driving the decline in the yen might come to the conclusion that the emperor has no clothes. Read more

Ye olde Abenomics

All this has happened before and will happen again… at least, so hopes the Japanese government.

Current finance minister Taro Aso has been keen to channel the spirit of his 1930s equivalent Korekiyo Takahashi, whose polices are widely credited with pulling Japan out of the Showa Depression. It’s understandable. Read more

Kuroda! The BoJ’s goldilocks

This Monday edition of rising Japanese equities/weak yen is brought to you by Haruhiko Kuroda, president of the Asian Development Bank and according to various media reports, the likely nominee for Bank of Japan governor.

Kuroda reportedly said early this month he was quite happy at the ADB and had nearly four years to serve of his third term. But to that we say: Mark Carney! Read more

Japan trade figures, perhaps not so bad

The weaker yen hasn’t done much for Japan’s exports so far, with preliminary data out today showing another record in Japan’s trade deficit. Exports were 6.4 per cent higher, year-on-year, in January and failed to raise as much as imports (up 7.3 per cent). This brought the trade deficit to Y1.63bn.

Societe Generale say not to worry yet, however. Firstly, those figures are not seasonally-adjusted. Month-on-month seasonally-adjusted numbers show the trade deficit shrank from Y678.9bn in January from a revised Y783.8bn in December. Read more

Japanese investors, the AUD and everyone else

Japanese investors are a powerful bunch in world markets. For a microcosm of this, just look at Australia; Japan plays a big role here in debt and in turn, in currency; and it’s a market that has been very attractive to foreigners of late, keeping the currency stubbornly high regardless of price changes in the country’s key exported commodities. BUT, as with everything yen at the moment, there is a serious shift going on. Read more

Muto ado about something

It’s the latest in Japanese swings and roundabouts, pushing the yen higher and JGB yields and stocks lower… What to blame? What to blame?

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Currency wars. You’re doing it wrong.

A predictable response to the utter confusion around yesterday’s G7 statement:

Nikkei 1day chart - Feb 13, 2013  Read more

It’s hard to know what to misinterpret anymore [Updated]

First we had this rather bland statement from the G7 — “domestic objectives” etc — and now this:

12-Feb-2013 13:56 G7 OFFICIAL SAYS G7 IS CONCERNED ABOUT UNILATERAL GUIDANCE ON THE YEN, JAPAN WILL BE IN SPOTLIGHT AT G20 MEETING IN MOSCOW

12-Feb-2013 13:56 – G7 OFFICIAL SAYS G7 STATEMENT WAS MISINTERPRETED, STATEMENT SIGNALED CONCERN ABOUT EXCESS MOVES IN JAPANESE YEN

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