It’s no secret that FT Alphaville pays attention to the periodic papers released by the team of Jonathan Wilmot, James Sweeney & Co. Their earlier work on shadow banking and collateral was thoughtful and ahead of its time, and we also agreed with Sweeney’s generally optimistic view of an accelerating US economic rebound led by the knock-on effects of a recovery in household formation, a favourite subject of ours.
Their latest is an extension of a prior piece that looked at the state of global investor risk appetite — and which concluded that although there remain obvious problems in parts of the developed world, overall the global recovery from the trough in early 2009 has actually outpaced previous recoveries, exactly as would be expected given the fall in the output gap this time round. Read more
Right, everyone has weighed in on the US recovery debate. Martin Wolf got in on the act on Wednesday arguing that and his voice has now been added to a plethora of others (see the ‘Related Links’ below if you want to catch up and a recent paper by Citi’s Sheets and Sockin which we’ve thrown in the usual place) with a consensus building on the R&R side of the argument.
Schularick and A Taylor have already weighed in on the US issue but where it gets fun now is that they have come back with a UK update (with our emphasis): Read more
Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank has produced an updated chart comparing this US recovery to US recoveries past (click to expand):
Another missive on the US recovery from the SocGen bear-king Albert Edwards and, uh-oh, paging Ludwig Wittgenstein:
Words fail me
Fewer Americans filed for unemployment insurance last week, and the total number of people claiming jobless benefits fell, supporting the Federal Reserve’s view that the labour market is gradually improving, according to the FT. A separate report showed consumer prices rose faster than expected in February, spurred by rising food and energy costs. See also FT Alphaville on the gap between headline and core inflation.
For the commute home, and to help you qualify the recovery,
– David Wessel spots three storm clouds in the US recovery: oil, rich-country government policy, and emerging market slowdown. Read more
There are prognostications of doom for the US economy, and there are highly specific prognostications of doom for the US economy.
Here is one, from Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research: Read more