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Analysis published Tuesday by Barclays Capital argues that it won’t. This is due to the overly optimistic growth assumptions underpinning the CBO’s new deficit projections. Douglas Elmendorf, the CBO director, writes on the CBO blog that its analysis was performed relative to CBO’s March 2011 baseline. Read more
Barring a Republican rebellion in the House of Representatives, the Budget Control Act of 2011 will be passed by both houses of Congress on Monday, and sent to the President for his signature.
Despite the resurrection of real market-shifting news on Monday, it’s worth quickly reflecting on the deal. A few other sites have done some post-mortems from a political or policy point of view. But see below for FT Alphaville’s debt ceiling winners and losers. (It was a lot harder to find winners than losers.) Read more
A deal required before an Asian markets drop on Monday. Bankers summoned to a joint meeting with officials in New York. Congress paralysed. Despite our continuing optimism and markets’ relative insouciance, it all sounds worryingly familiar.
Bloomberg reports on Friday morning that the Federal Reserve is preparing to issue guidance to banks should Congress fail to raise the debt ceiling and that the US treasury has invited all 20 primary dealers to a contingency briefing in New York. Read more
We know, we know: there should be a weekly quota for US debt posts. But Wednesday’s note from Citigroup’s Willem Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari is not your average debt ceiling report.
They suggest the debt ceiling impasse is a vaudeville compared to the tragedy that could await. The US faces five scenarios and a downgrade is all but guaranteed, say the authors: Read more
The Harvard Club of New York hasn’t survived for 124 years without a haughtily dismissive attitude to irony. Stuffed elephant heads are nailed to nearly every wall, making it an appropriate venue for Tuesday evening’s ”Conversation with Tim Geithner”.
FT Alphaville popped down last night to sip port, admire the gargantuan taxidermy and listen to the US Treasury secretary give an occasionally candid interview to veteran journalist Alex Jones. Read more
By David Gordon, Sean West and Helen Fessenden of Eurasia Group. The views expressed are strictly their own.
With all eyes on the Gang of Six, naïve hopes of a deficit deal are blossoming in Washington. The problem is that that likely deals are unlikely to be meaningful. Read more
European politicians could be forgiven for the occasional smug smile following S&P’s unprecedented revision of the US outlook to negative.
The credit rating agency stress tested Washington, DC and — unsurprisingly — found that a separation of powers, practically useless debt ceilings and a highly polarised body politic do not make for easy and predictable fiscal planning. Read more
The House is currently debating and about to vote on the budget deal struck on Friday. But perhaps its members should’ve read the small print.
There was a mini-storm in the Tea Party cup on Wednesday evening when the $38bn of “cuts” provisionally agreed to on Friday disappeared. Vanished. Abacus-cadabra! Read more
Shutdown fears seemed to have shutdown on Wednesday evening when lawmakers allegedly found the contours of a deal to fund the government through the end of FY 2011.
Congress continues to argue over a continuing resolution to fund non-essential parts of the US federal government past March 4.
As silly season drags on we’re still unsure whether a deal will be struck. Senate Democrats are said to be releasing details of some spending cuts Friday afternoon, which suggests movement — but it’s hard to untangle genuine compromise efforts from political posturing. Read more