Posts tagged 'US Federal Deficit'

Stat du jour, federal deficit edition

It comes from Jed Graham via Felix:

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The return of AAA US political risk

We’re a day late to warn about the slobbering resuscitation of jaded poltergeists returning to chomp chunks out of the vile jellies of our minds…

… but better late than never: US budget politics is back! Read more

S&P gets an F [updated]

Updated (8:21pm, New York time): The US treasury gained a stay of execution but not for very long, it turned out.

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The vanishing debt ceiling deal

The Budget Control Act will reduce annual US federal deficits by at least $2,100bn by 2021, according to the CBO. But will it?

Analysis published Tuesday by Barclays Capital argues that it won’t. This is due to the overly optimistic growth assumptions underpinning the CBO’s new deficit projections. Douglas Elmendorf, the CBO director, writes on the CBO blog that its analysis was performed relative to CBO’s March 2011 baselineRead more

Debt ceiling: losers

The winners have been profiled. Now for the ugly part.

Losers Read more

Debt ceiling: winners

Barring a Republican rebellion in the House of Representatives, the Budget Control Act of 2011 will be passed by both houses of Congress on Monday, and sent to the President for his signature.

Despite the resurrection of real market-shifting news on Monday, it’s worth quickly reflecting on the deal. A few other sites have done some post-mortems from a political or policy point of view. But see below for FT Alphaville’s debt ceiling winners and losers. (It was a lot harder to find winners than losers.) Read more

Preparing for a US debt disaster

A deal required before an Asian markets drop on Monday. Bankers summoned to a joint meeting with officials in New York. Congress paralysed. Despite our continuing optimism and markets’ relative insouciance, it all sounds worryingly familiar.

Bloomberg reports on Friday morning that the Federal Reserve is preparing to issue guidance to banks should Congress fail to raise the debt ceiling and that the US treasury has invited all 20 primary dealers to a contingency briefing in New York. Read more

Buiter on the 1% chance the US gets it right

We know, we know: there should be a weekly quota for US debt posts. But Wednesday’s note from Citigroup’s Willem Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari is not your average debt ceiling report.

They suggest the debt ceiling impasse is a vaudeville compared to the tragedy that could await. The US faces five scenarios and a downgrade is all but guaranteed, say the authors: Read more

What the United States could learn from Chile

The many worlds interpretation of quantum physics posits that all alternative histories and futures are real. If true, somewhere out there is this version of the United States federal budget:

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The shrinking, stalling debt ceiling deal

Another weekend of business casual negotiations in Washington failed to deliver a deal to raise the debt ceiling.

In response, President Obama held a press conference on Monday morning to urge a compromise and repeat his position on the size and shape of a deal. Read more

What price an AAA-downgrade?

The US has already received its verbal warning.

Now here’s its numerical one. From Monday’s FTRead more

Tim Geithner and stuffed elephants at the Harvard Club

The Harvard Club of New York hasn’t survived for 124 years without a haughtily dismissive attitude to irony. Stuffed elephant heads are nailed to nearly every wall, making it an appropriate venue for Tuesday evening’s ”Conversation with Tim Geithner”.

FT Alphaville popped down last night to sip port, admire the gargantuan taxidermy and listen to the US Treasury secretary give an occasionally candid interview to veteran journalist Alex Jones. Read more

Guest post: Four fiscal deals—would any matter?

By David Gordon, Sean West and Helen Fessenden of Eurasia Group. The views expressed are strictly their own.

With all eyes on the Gang of Six, naïve hopes of a deficit deal are blossoming in Washington. The problem is that that likely deals are unlikely to be meaningful. Read more

S&P’s AAA public service announcement

European politicians could be forgiven for the occasional smug smile following S&P’s unprecedented revision of the US outlook to negative.

The credit rating agency stress tested Washington, DC and — unsurprisingly — found that a separation of powers, practically useless debt ceilings and a highly polarised body politic do not make for easy and predictable fiscal planning. Read more

The ever-shrinking Budget deal

The House is currently debating and about to vote on the budget deal struck on Friday. But perhaps its members should’ve read the small print.

There was a mini-storm in the Tea Party cup on Wednesday evening when the $38bn of “cuts” provisionally agreed to on Friday disappeared. Vanished. Abacus-cadabra! Read more

Shutdown averted, again, perhaps, or maybe not

Shutdown fears seemed to have shutdown on Wednesday evening when lawmakers allegedly found the contours of a deal to fund the government through the end of FY 2011.

Unsurprisingly, John Boehner on Thursday says no deal is imminent. The proposed details are still worth glancing at, however, as the rough size of any final package now seems a bit clearer. Read more

Shutdown averted, for now

A two-week stay of compromise, we suppose.

The Senate has approved the continuing resolution that the House passed yesterday, keeping the government funded for two more weeks. Read more

Government shutdown, economy slowdown?

Well, it’s a start.

The FT reported Monday evening that the House of Represenatives will on Tuesday vote on a two-week continuing resolution (CR) that funds the federal government through March 18 and reduces FY 2011 discretionary authority by $4bn. Read more

USA, incorporated and indebted

Congress continues to argue over a continuing resolution to fund non-essential parts of the US federal government past March 4.

As silly season drags on we’re still unsure whether a deal will be struck. Senate Democrats are said to be releasing details of some spending cuts Friday afternoon, which suggests movement — but it’s hard to untangle genuine compromise efforts from political posturing. Read more