Risk assets have had a good run from western policymakers for several decades, says Morgan Stanley’s Gerard Minack. But that time is probably over. Read more
In attempts to explain why companies (particularly in the US) are so reluctant to invest and hire of late, the word “uncertainty” will usually make an appearance. “Policy uncertainty” is generally seen as the enemy of business confidence, and the combination of post-crisis regulatory reforms and ever-increasing partisanship in the US Congress make it a very big theme of late. Intuitively it makes sense that uncertainty would affect business decisions, but can that be separated from the effect of actual economic activity itself? Read more
As if you needed more.
In this post we’ll stick to the descriptive parts of these notes and leave aside the prescriptive, as the potential efficacy of various monetary loosening measures has been (and will continue to be) debated ad nauseum pretty much everywhere, including on this blog. Read more
Rick Bookstaber has a fascinating post about “physics envy”, which is how he describes the affliction suffered by those who would explain activity in financial markets according to sophisticated mathematical models (and base decisions on them).
Building on research by Andrew Lo and Mark Meuller, Bookstaber writes that this is not a new phenomenon, and adds: Read more