From Citi’s Michael Saunders and Ann O’Kelly: Read more
If you thought Moody’s and the IMF’s cuts were bad check out Morgan Stanley:
We make substantial downward revisions to our UK GDP growth forecasts from 0.5% and 1.8% GDP in 2012 and 2013, respectively, to -0.5% and 1.0%. In terms of GDP growth, our new central case is now very similar to our previous bear case… Read more
Hysteresis indeed (click through the pic for the full report):
The pound has been the strongest performing G10 currency so far this year, even though it has been weakening of late against the US dollar and Japanese yen.
Mervyn King was right: this will be worse than the 1930s.
At least that’s the message from a depressing summary of the UK economy by Citigroup’s Michael Saunders and Ann O’Kelly, who argue that this recession-recovery cycle will be worse than after the Great Crash. Read more
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the UK’s GDP growth to have slowed to 0.2 per cent in the second quarter, from 0.5 per cent in the first quarter. Output was affected by disruptions relating to the disasters in Japan, and holidays for Easter and the royal wedding. Demand is being hit by government spending cuts while high inflation is eroding household incomes at the fastest pace since the 1970s. Meanwhile the FT says new research shows that households with lower than average earnings have seen a sharp decline in their gains from growth in the economy, with government policies and changing sectoral composition among the causes. Read more
There is a lot of debate on whether the market is actually getting a decent picture of the UK economy at the moment — typified by the latest GDP release, though there’s also construction output and all sorts of indicators playing up and becoming highly volatile.
So we thought we’d pass along this observation from Marchel Alexandrovich, an economist at Jefferies (H/T Bryce Elder): Read more
Dramatic, we know. But the ONS has confirmed the economy grew only 0.5 per cent in 2011′s first quarter after its 0.5 per cent fall in 2010′s last three months, and technically…
Abstracting from the snow
We have an economy
On a plateau
That’s the (Haiku-ised) verdict of Joe Grice, chief economist of the Office of National Statistics, on Wednesday’s UK GDP release. Read more
Fast economic growth, like all good things, must end. But when?
An NBER working paper by Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin released on Monday uses data from 1957 through 2007 to suggest when and why slowdowns occur in fast-growing economies. Read more
There wasn’t a lot of sunshine to melt the avalanche of UK economic data released on Tuesday.
Revised UK Q4 GDP (-0.5 per cent rather than -0.6 per cent) and the UK Q4 current account deficit (-2.9 per cent compared to -2.4 per cent in Q3) came as little surprise. It’s too early to say what impact the poor growth figure will have into 2011 — and of course these so-called final GDP estimates will continue to be updated over the next few years. Read more
Well, this took a while.
From the Office for National Statistics and with a H/T to Ian Fraser: Read more
Fresh off the wires — a suggestive double-dip GDP figure for the UK:
Did you hear the one about the superliner that squeezed under a Danish bridge with just an inch and half to spare?
It’s getting that way with HMS QE2. Read more
And it was RBS analysts wot won it.
Economic growth in the third quarter chewed up consensus forecasts and spat them out on Tuesday — recording 0.8 per cent above a predicted 0.4 per cent. Read more
Don’t save, spend, Bank of England official Charles Bean advised Britain on Monday, telling Channel 4 News that low interest rates made any other choice rather useless.
‘No problem at all, my dear Bean,’ said Britain. Read more
Again with the outperforming UK second-quarter GDP numbers.
The Office for National Statistics revised last month’s already shockingly good data upward on Friday. Read more
Britain’s economy grew almost twice as much as economists expected in the second quarter, boosted by a pick-up in services, manufacturing and construction, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. According to the stat men, the 1.1 per cent rise in the three months through to June is its fastest expansion in four years. Economists polled by Bloomberg and Reuters had forecast a 0.6 per cent gain. For more on the story see FT Alphaville. Read more
Publication of all official data related to the UK’s national accounts will be postponed until mid-July after the Office for National Statistics announced it had found “potential errors” in the data, reports the FT. The possible mistakes were spotted in the detailed breakdowns of expenditure in the economy just before the release of the gross domestic product figures, which had been due on Wednesday. Read more
… but not by much.
From Reuters on Wednesday: Read more
Oh dear, oh dear.
The market reaction after Friday’s UK GDP data: Read more