This is nuts, we’re watching the crash

Credit pricing, yeah?

From a rather good Bloomberg piece:

Having found themselves shut out of local bond and loan markets seven years ago, a band of developers began looking elsewhere for funds. First an initial public offering, and then a dollar bond sale. It became a well-trodden path. By 2010, a core group of four — Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Renhe Commercial Holdings Co., Glorious Property Holdings Ltd. — raised a total of $5.6 billion. On Monday, Kaisa buckled under $10.5 billion of debt and defaulted.

China’s home builders became the single biggest source of dollar junk debt in Asia amid government measures to prevent a property bubble. Developers already funneled $78.8 billion from international equity and bond markets into an industry that’s grown to account for one third of the world’s second-biggest economy. Most of the first rush of dollar offerings, in 2010, falls due in the next two years.

 Read more

This is nuts. When’s the crash?

From Blackrock on Monday:

BlackRock launches its first China A share ETF for international investors London, 13 April 2015 – BlackRock has today listed the iShares MSCI China A UCITS ETF on the London Stock Exchange, giving its international institutional and retail clients direct access to China’s A share equity market. A shares are mainland China incorporated companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and represent the largest single segment of the Chinese equity market.

They were amongst the best performing equities in the world in 2014, when the Shanghai Composite Index rose 58%. However the direct purchase of A shares is open only to Chinese nationals plus foreign investors able to access a limited number of tightly controlled and regulated channels, restricting access to the market for many.

The iShares MSCI China A UCITS ETF provides investors with exposure to China A shares through BlackRock’s own Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) quota. The ETF is the only UCITS fund to track the MSCI China A International Index. This index represents a broad and diversified basket of over 300 large and mid cap stocks.

But you know what they say about ETFs… Read more

This is *really* nuts. When’s the crash?

The China stock bubble is getting more and more bonkers. This from Deutsche Bank:

Bubble watchers point out median earnings multiples for Chinese technology stocks are twice US peer valuations at their dot.com peak. More worrying perhaps is a health-goods-from-deer-antlers producer on 70 times, the seamless underwear manufacturer on 90 times or those school uniform and ketchup makers on 330 times!

It seems everyone in the country is racing to open a brokerage account – 1.67m new accounts in the latest week, according to the China Securities Depository and Clearing Co. That sounds a lot, although it is growth of only about 1 per cent a week in the total of new accounts: China, remember is big.

But a quick bit of Excel work shows just how silly the bubble in Chinese domestic stocks, known as A shares, has become. Read more

This is nuts. When’s the crash?

 Read more

This is nuts. When’s the crash?

Yes, dot-com comparisons are flung about all too easily. But it’s quite hard to argue with the fairness of this one from Bloomberg:

The world-beating surge in Chinese technology stocks is making the heady days of the dot-com bubble look tame by comparison.

The industry is leading gains in China’s $6.9 trillion stock market, sending valuations to an average 220 times reported profits, the most expensive level among global peers. When the Nasdaq Composite Index peaked in March 2000, technology companies in the U.S. had a mean price-to-earnings ratio of 156…

Valuations in China are now higher than those in the U.S. at the height of the dot-com bubble just about any way you slice them.

 Read more

Your Shanghai equity frenzy, we have “a fresh crescendo” people

Just going to leave these few charts here for a second…

That’s from BNP Paribas, this is via Tom Orlik and a few others: Read more

Dette er nødder. Hvornår er styrtet?

From the Wall Street Journal’s picture of the Danish housing market:

“People will often put in an offer even before they see the apartment,” said Christopher Christiansen, a property broker at Danish real estate agency Home A/S. “Sometimes they will even sign before they see it.”

A cost of debt close to zero for house buyers seems to be having some sort of effect. Read more

This is still nuts, Chinese equities edition

Sentences to remind us of the nuttiness of Chinese equities over the past few months from BNP Paribas’ Richard Iley (and yeah, the Shanghai Comp fell 0.8 per cent today we have to admit, but that just broke “a 10-session winning streak — the longest in 23 years, according to Bloomberg data — that had taken the index to its highest since May 2008″):

Against all odds, the best performing asset class on the planet over the last nine months or so has been Chinese equities. After languishing for the first seven months of 2014, Chinese stocks have since been on an incredible tear, ending 2014 up a remarkable 49% in USD terms, even outstripping the c.28% annual return posted by Bunds (Chart1). And the strong gains have continued so far in early 2015. Up almost 12% in USD year-to-date at time of writing, Chinese equities continue to sit atop the heap of global asset returns. All told, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have surged almost 80% in local currency terms since mid-2014 (Chart 2).

Yes, yes… “必有牛市” – “There must be a (dynastic) bull market”Read more

This is nuts (uh, you missed the crash)

Via TVLine:

Chase Crawford of Gossip Girl has been tapped to lead ABC’s Boom, in which one of the largest oil discoveries in American history leads to an economic explosion in a North Dakota town, our sister site Deadline reports. Read more

This is nuts. But so what?

As long as the music’s playing…

Citi’s credit strategist Hans Lorenzen adds to our euro-nuttiness questions of yesterday. He’s in a more… pragmatic frame of mind. Which doesn’t preclude the use of “frenzied”, but there you go. With our emphasis and his puns throughout:

Is it a bubble? With clear signs of overvaluation, inflows concentrated on return-sensitive investors, spreads largely desensitized to external shocks and fundamentals moving in the opposite direction, the recent and expected further tightening certainly has all the typical hallmarks of one.

But that’s almost beside the point, as we think it will last longer than most people’s investment horizons, leaving them with little choice but to participate. As we see it, the time to exit is the day that the market starts to doubt the ECB’s commitment to buying more.

 Read more

This is nuts, where have all the bonds gone?

“It’s official, there are no more sellers of bonds.” An investor told us yesterday, and he’s not alone. Bond buying on ECB QE, the Greek loan extension and recent growth data in the periphery has transformed itself into bond hoarding.

- RBS’ Alberto Gallo and team Read more

This is nuts. Enjoy your trip to the moon.

Rocket Internet, the German-listed ecommerce investment group, has opportunistically raised about €600m in fresh equity at €49 per share.

In case you had forgotten, the collection of investments in more than 140 loss making businesses is valued by the market at about €7.6bn. Read more

This is nuts. Who wants some eBonds?

Over in Mac McQuown’s Sonoma Valley workshop, courtesy of Bloomberg Markets

McQuown says his eBond will enable investors to jettison their credit risk because the swap, which is essentially a form of insurance, will cover their losses should the debtor fail. To garner such protection now, an investor must purchase a swap separately to cover a bond. Read more

This is nuts. (But maybe someone’s noticed)

Box Inc, just another cloud storage company out of Silicon Valley, looked to be just another SV mania company hitting Wall St when it priced it’s IPO last week. Against an allegedly cautious pricing at $14 a share (one dollar above the indicative range, natch) the market price surged to a day one high of $24.73. But look at the price chart since then…

 Read more

This is nuts. When’s the revolution?

Over in Russia:

This is illegal interference with my personal life, with my information,” Yakunin told state television. “We are a natural monopoly, we live according to decisions taken by the state, so we make as much as the state allows us to make. Read more

This is nuts. When’s the crash?

Japan turns even more Japanese:

 Read more

This is nuts. When’s the crash?

This is an urgent Alphaville appeal: kill this trend now.

 Read more

At a loss

Bloomberg Businessweek already wrote the definitive profile of OnDeck Capital, the latest hot initial public offering for a business with some boiler room characteristics. Check it out to see the company Peter Thiel is keeping these days.

From our perspective, the market valuation of about $1.3bn seems nuts for a far simpler reason, which requires reading 15 words in the prospectus:

We have a history of losses and may not achieve consistent profitability in the future.

Never mind the business partners with colourful backgrounds, hope and fairy dust is what you, dear investor, were invited to buy. Read more

This is nuts. When’s the crash?

A news story lands, from Bloomberg, entitled “Goldman Sachs outdoes itself…”

Like Meryl Streep at the Oscars, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. isn’t lacking acclaim for its merger and acquisition advisory business. It’s finished first in deal volume for five consecutive years and in nine of the last 10.

Even so, Goldman Sachs outdid itself this year. No top firm has had a larger market-share spread over its nearest competitor since 1998

 Read more

America’s finest news source is for sale. When’s the crash?

As the longtime publisher of this news-paper, it is my duty and unrestrained pleasure to inform you spittle-soaked readers that I have sold The Onion and all of its various holdings to a syndicate of industrious China-men from the deepest heart of the Orient. One of their representatives oozed and crawled from his dank hut to visit me in person at my bedside last week, and make known his superiors’ desire to expand their clammy clutch into the Western world…

Oh, how heavenly it shall be to never again hear the ungodly shriek of a printing press, or breathe the insufferable stench of a news-room full of unwashed scribes churning out mindless pap on the subject of photo-play actresses and their adopted African brood. And as far as the whimpering clods who have the temerity to call themselves “readers” are concerned, I do not suppose I shall miss their ilk in the slightest. Why, just imagining their pallid, toothless faces fills me with such colossal rage that at this very moment my nurse-maid is administering to me a near-lethal dose of laudanum just so I may find the composure to reach the end of this missive.

– “Well, I’ve Sold The Paper To The Chinese,” The Onion, July 20, 2009 Read more

This is Shingy. When’s the crash?

Performance art, the personification of a tech bubble or just a cry for help from an existentially challenged AOL? From the New Yorker on everybody’s favourite digital prophet:

Next, Shingy stopped by the office of Erika Nardini, the chief marketing officer of AOL Advertising, and handed her an iPad Mini. “Wanted to show you a little brain fart I had on the plane,” he said. It was a cartoon he had drawn of a bear wearing zebra-print pants and a shirt covered in ones and zeros.

“Love it, love it, love it,” Nardini said. “I’m thinking of the bears more as a metaphor.”

“A thousand per cent,” Shingy said.

 Read more

This is not the iron price. When’s the crash?

Some semiotics. This is what Americans call a cast iron skillet.

 Read more

This is BABA, what’s your target price? [updated]

First on Alibaba, the FT reports that the Cayman registered derivative contract vaguely related to ecommerce in China — and which floated on Sept 19 the same day the S&P 500 peaked — has almost broken into the list of the world’s 10 most valuable companies:

Shares of Jack Ma’s Hangzhou-based group climbed as much as 2.8 per cent to touch a new record high of $100.50, lifting its market capitalisation above $247bn. Read more

That was nuts, what’s next? Goldman edition

Unless we’re mistaken, Goldman has come up with its own “This is nuts” top ten. Decent effort:

1. Since the low in the global equity market on March 9, 2009, the MSCI The World index has risen roughly 180% in total return terms, generating an annualised return of a remarkable 20%.

2. 2013 was one of the strongest years on record for the equity markets. The US managed a price return of 30% and the Sharpe Ratio of the S&P 500 ranked in the 98th percentile since 1962.

3. Perhaps even more striking is that bond markets have continued to perform strongly. Since the 2009 low in equities, the JP Morgan GBI global bond index has risen 24%.

 Read more

This is nuts. When’s the real crash?

Alibaba this week…

The calm after Wednesday’s one-day storm is downright weird. No?

 Read more

That was nuts. Is this the crash?

Eight minutes of wonder for the S&P 500.

Let’s call it the Alibaba indicator, with thanks to BofAML’s Thundering Word:

The S&P500 index peaked at 2019 roughly 8 minutes after the Sept 19th launch of the Alibaba IPO.

 Read more

This is nuts. When’s the crash?

A competition. What is the portfolio with the greatest hope to value ratio?

To start you off, here are the top ten holdings of the Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust plc, managed by Baillie Gifford. (Click to enlarge):

 Read more

This is nuts. When’s the crash?

Some clown’s made up a spoof investment pitch for Rocket Internet, the German e-incubator planning to float in Frankfurt next month at a valuation of something north of €6bn.

Secret papers: How the Samwers woo investors - Manager Magazin Read more

A friendly reminder that Yahoo’s core business is worth -$11.6 billion

Alibaba has started trading and its current market valuation is about $227 billion. Yahoo! Inc., which currently owns a little more than 16 per cent of the Chinese conglomerate, is currently valued at just over $40 billion. Yahoo also owns a 35 per cent stake in publicly-traded Yahoo! Japan, which currently has a market cap of about $23 billion.

Let’s do some arithmetic to see how much Yahoo’s core business is currently worth: Read more

This is BABA. When’s the crash?

This of course is Alibaba, the Cayman e-commerce site. Click the image above for the SEC filing; click the image below for the corporate structure. Read more