This bull train is ready to blow off some steam, maybe.
Seeing as we can’t remember if good news is still good news, or if it counts as bad news these days, why not throw some technical thoughts into the mix. GaveKal’s Jean-Yeves Dumont has his finger on the sell trigger: Read more
This post by FT commentator James Mackintosh is cross-published from the FT Long Short blog that James writes with John Authers. It’s well worth bookmarking.
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On Monday, the results of the Bank of England’s Systemic Risk Survey were out.
How confident are 79 market participants — from hedge funds, banks, building societies, large complex financial institutions, asset managers and insurers — in the UK’s financial system?
Well, it would appear that they’ve gone from approximately umm-errrr-dunno to hmmm: Read more
If you thought the headlines were bearish… you haven’t seen the bank quant models (the ones which presumably can’t read headlines).
Looking at SocGen’s latest cross asset quant research, the picture painted on all signal fronts is increasingly coming across on the dire side: Read more
Sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers has turned sharply negative since the March earthquake and tsunami and resulting nuclear crisis, but companies expect conditions to improve over the next three months, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey shows. The FT reports the closely watched quarterly survey underscored the impact of the disaster on business and current worries about electricity supplies. But it will also reinforce hopes that economic recovery will be swift. The Tankan’s headline index, which compares the number of large manufacturers reporting positive conditions with those reporting negative views, fell to -9 for June, a decline of 15 points from the +6 reported three months ago. The result was the first negative result since March 2010 and was lower than the average forecast by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. However the Tankan survey also found expectations of an 11-point recovery in the index in September.
With hedge funds going into the meedja sentiment business this is probably worth exploring:
Finance news articles mentioning ‘crisis’ are at a three-year low, say Société Générale’s cross-asset research team using a famed indicator: Read more