Something to keep in the back of your mind as once remote political events become everyday, is that the Catalan question still lingers.
Here’s Citi’s recent assessment of the local but in no-way endorsed by Madrid poll set for the Autumn:
Catalonian independence (due in November 2014).
Depending on where you stand, a crossbill is either a genus, Loxia, of birds in the finch family (Fringillidae), with three to five (or possibly many more) species OR the most probable currency arrangement that will pop out of a yes vote on Scottish independence in September.
This, from Barc, is an attempt to list the ways such a new Scottish currency might be constructed. Do click to enlarge: Read more
Alternative currencies are being issued left, right and centre these days. So what’s stopping Scotland issuing its own currency? Really? (Did you know there is a SpainCoin?)
Truth is, Scottish institutions already issue their own currency. The Scottish pound is pretty much a private currency that just happens to be pegged to the Bank of England pound thanks to Scottish banks being part of the BoE central bank system and collateralising every note they issue with a sterling asset of some sort as a result.
For as long as the Scottish banks have the sterling collateral needed to maintain the 1:1 valuation, there is no reason for the value of the Scottish pound to disconnect from that of the UK pound. Read more
This guest post on the issue of Scottish independence is from Paul Donovan, Global Economist at UBS in London…
As the referendum on Scottish independence approaches, the rhetoric around the currency arrangements for an independent Scotland has escalated. An unnamed British cabinet minister has been cited as suggesting that currency union could be used as a bargaining chip (specifically in exchange for Trident bases). The casual assumption that a fundamental economic structure can be bargained for political capital is deeply troubling; it is just such approach that created the Euro with the flawed architecture that it has today. Read more
Spotted deep in the bank’s 2013 results. “We will be a more UK focused bank…” — you can say that again. Read more
The following is a guest post from Chris Cook, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Security and Resilience Studies at University College London. His work is focused on a new generation of networked markets – which will, in Chris’s view, necessarily be dis-intermediated, open, decentralised and, therefore, resilient. But his approach is informed by the past, and it is there that he finds a framework for an independent Scotland to use the pound, a Plan A Plus.
The rejection by all the Westminster parties collectively of the SNP’s Plan A for a post-independence UK currency union has elicited a string of possible Plan B solutions, several of them already considered and rejected as inferior to Plan A by the SNP’s expert group of ‘wise men’.
But the current debate is ill-founded, since the UK can have no more control over who uses the £ symbol as a unit of account, than they can have control over the use of metres and kilogrammes. Read more
This post is just to flesh out a point in this great piece by John McDermott — so read that first.
But we think it’s an important point. An alternative title for this post: What’s under your gilt?
After all, it is the debt that has enabled Her Majesty’s government to turn so breezily confident that currency union with an independent Scotland “is not going to happen”, fully seven months before an independence referendum. Read more
Yes, it’s hardly a neutral document on the matter.
Still, there are lots of interesting charts in the UK government’s latest report on the finance and economics of Scotland becoming a sovereign state, this time covering the dangers from banks…
…Although we think they missed one.*
Alternatively, what price to taxpayers for political pride.
Spotted in HM Treasury’s collection of responses to the idea of letting Scotland issue its own bonds later this decade — a… wide range of guesses about how they might be priced: Read more
Exhibit A: the North Face of Ben Nevis, Scotland’s highest mountain.
At long last, Scotland is to meet the capital markets.
Scotland is one of a rare breed of nations: it has its own legal system but lacks sovereignty. It’s also a fiscal outlier. Unlike sub-sovereign entities in the US, Italy and Australia (to name a few), it has little flexibility over taxation and is unable to issue bonds. Read more