Posts tagged 'Russia'

The iron index screen

“From Nord Stream in the Baltic, to Russian bank subsidiaries in Austria…”

Shares in Gazprom, a company that made $32bn in net income last year, trade at only 2.6 times forward earnings.

So it’s not as if plenty of foreign fund managers weren’t already pretending that the Moscow market has been wiped from the face of capitalism.

On the other hand — via Bloomberg on Friday (and more from the WSJ): Read more

Yukos — Putin’s loose lips

Was Rosneft an arm of the Russian state in 2004?

For anyone looking at its shareholder list — or the background of Igor Sechin, chairman of the board of directors at the time — back then, it might hardly seem a taxing question. But it’s not the question the arbitration tribunal saw as important in Monday’s Yukos ruling.

This was whether Rosneft was specifically acting on behalf of the state when it played its part in the dismemberment of Yukos in 2004. (State responsibility in international law is a tricky subject.)

In an astonishing passage, the tribunal is sceptical that there is evidence of Rosneft acting in this way — until it notices the reflections of the man in the Kremlin from the time… Read more

Yukos — the interest-ing bit

Another excerpt from Monday’s ruling by an arbitration tribunal, awarding $50bn to be paid by Russia to Yukos ex-shareholders…

As part of the damages from Russia’s expropriation of Yukos’ assets — the tribunal also had to work out interest. This is an important part of any arbitration case looking at financial losses incurred years ago. Although actually, there is surprisingly little guidance on what rate to choose. And the rate used by the tribunal here is (excuse the pun) interesting. Read more

Yukos — the $50bn award

Here’s how the tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration worked out the figure, after finding in favour of former Yukos shareholders on Monday…

 Read more

Geopolitical central banking

What happens when you raise rates by 2.5 percentage points, within a period of six months, for an economy that might only grow 0.2 per cent this year?

We’re not sure. Read more

On Russian sanctions and Belgian beer…

Given that Russian subjects are reportedly being force fed a diet of Putin-esque mis-information over the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, it seems worth noting what strategists employed by Russian investment banks are saying about the threat of deeper sanctions against Russia.

Here’s Charlie Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital (emphasis ours)… Read more

Sell Rosneft, buy AK-47s

From the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control on Wednesday:

The following transactions by U.S. persons or within the United States involving the persons listed below are hereby prohibited: transacting in, providing financing for, or otherwise dealing in new debt of longer than 90 days maturity of these persons (listed below), their property, or their interests in property…

Note that wording carefully. “US persons” could extend beyond the US. Meanwhile “new debt of longer than 90 days maturity” could extend beyond US dollar debt.

It does not, however, include US dollar clearing generally, the US Treasury says. Nor, it seems, CDS which references prohibited underlying debt.

Now note whose debt — not all transactions; debt — US banks, US clearing systems, and US investors may be prevented from dealing with accordingly: Read more

About that Ukrainian bond Russia owns…

Russia says Ukraine hasn’t paid interest due June 20 on that $3bn eurobond.

Ukraine said on Thursday that it had. Read more

Caption contest! Putin in China edition

That’s the Russian president on the left, rainbow-mantled former General Secretary Jiang Zemin on the right… and Gazprom’s gas deal not pictured because it is presently nowhere to be foundRead more

Peace in our time

The rally on Russia’s Micex stock index, at pixel time — Sberbank’s up 9 per cent — after President Putin decided Ukraine has been left weakened enough maybe doesn’t need a referendum in the east after all. This time. Read more

Socgen remains committed to Russia (just in case you were wondering)

As the FT reports on Wedneday, France’s Socgen has taken a €525m writedown on the goodwill of its Russian assets, becoming the first big Western bank to suffer significant financial damage from the crisis in Ukraine.

The losses emanate mostly from the bank’s rouble exposure and its ownership of the Rosbank subsidiary, which accounts for 5 per cent of the group’s total revenues. Read more

It’s Mostly Fiscal, Ukraine edition

The currency devaluation and official borrowing (to help finance a still-wide government deficit) are expected to push public sector debt up to 57 percent of GDP…

IMF announcement of $17bn loan programme for Ukraine

Although don’t worry — that’s a whole 3 per cent before a unique debt threshold clause conceivably allows the Russian government to convert $3bn of Ukrainian bonds, which it owns, into demand money. Read more

Rubber not hitting the road in Russia

In Putin’s Russia, risk prices you. That includes tyres. Keeping an eye out for signs and signals from the Russian economy amid the Ukraine crisis… we note Citi’s Philip Watkins on some big drops in tyre sales: Read more

Guest post: What if Putin had bought Crimea?

The prospect of selling any sovereign territory to resolve disputes may seem like a taboo — especially so when it comes to the conflicted territory of Crimea. However, Joseph Blocher and Mitu Gulati, both law professors at Duke University, argue that such a “market” should in future be considered in public international law.

______________________ Read more

Bank flowchart + geopolitics = acid trip

At least Nomura acknowledge the absurdity… anyway, all Ukrainian roads lead to political uncertainty.

 Read more

Crimeanomics favours the West

This guest post on the Ukraine crisis is from Jorge Mariscal and Alejo Czerwonko, emerging markets chief investment officer and emerging markets economist, respectively, at UBS Wealth Management.

________ Read more

Super Novatek

The Russian market has turned wary of “synergies” at Novatek.

From the Wall Street Journal last year: Read more

Putin in the Micex

Russian stocks having a bad morning following the sanction filled night before:

 

That’s the Micex off 3 per cent and the RTS off 3.7 per cent at pixel… Read more

If this tit-for-tatting escalates…

That’s banks’ exposure to Russia by major economy, put together using BIS data by Gilles Moec and team at Deutsche. Click the image to enlarge. Read more

“TIMCHENKO, Gennady… Geneva, Switzerland” (UPDATED)

There’s a familiar name on the latest Specially Designated Nationals List in the US sanctions against Russia…

TIMCHENKO, Gennady (a.k.a. TIMCHENKO, Gennadiy Nikolayevich; a.k.a. TIMCHENKO, Gennady Nikolayevich; a.k.a. TIMTCHENKO, Guennadi), Geneva, Switzerland; DOB 09 Nov 1952; POB Leninakan, Armenia; alt. POB Gyumri, Armenia; nationality Finland; alt. nationality Russia; alt. nationality Armenia (individual) [UKRAINE2]… Read more

Guest post: Ukraine’s debt — now comes the interesting bit

When your creditor takes some of your territory — can you make that territory take some of your debt? Mitu Gulati, a law professor at Duke University, last wrote for us on Russia’s $3bn Ukrainian bond. With Russia reinforcing its annexation of Crimea, Mitu considers Ukraine’s options with its debt after the secession.

___________ Read more

In Putin’s Russia, risk prices you

Or, why investors might be less than sanguine about sanctions against Russia.

We could start with the OFZs.

 Read more

Guest post: Mr Putin’s clever bond issue

What to do when your creditor invades? Beyond its occupation of Crimea, Russia remains a lender to Ukraine — even as IMF teams ponder the Kiev government’s financial sustainability. Mitu Gulati, a law professor at Duke University, considers both sovereigns’ options.

________________ Read more

EM’s dark debt squeeze exposure

If you take the blue pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe exactly what the statistics tell you to believe. You take the red pill — you stay in Wonderland and I show you what the statistics just can’t see.

What we’re talking about is hidden debt. The debt that’s out there but which we can’t currently see or assess. That is, dark debt which as yet hasn’t been factored in or priced into asset prices that influence our financially abstracted version of reality.

We have of course been here before. During the subprime crisis unexpected sums of dark debt emerged from off-balance sheet bank liabilities, SIVs and such the like. The impact, as we all now know, was immense.

But there’s a very good reason to suspect that “dark debt” hasn’t gone away entirely. It may, as it turns out, still be lurking out there somewhere. Still skewing our perception of reality as it always did. Read more

IAMA G8 leader contemplating invasion. Ask me anything.

Vladimir Putin’s gave his first official address on the Ukraine crisis on Tuesday.

Among the key points made (via Reuters, and emphasis on our favourite snap):

RUSSIA’S PUTIN SAYS USE OF FORCE IN UKRAINE IS A CHOICE OF LAST RESORT

PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA RESERVES RIGHT TO USE ALL OPTIONS IF THERE IS LAWLESSNESS IN EASTERN UKRAINE

RUSSIA’S PUTIN SAYS THOSE CONSIDERING SANCTIONS SHOULD THINK OF THE DAMAGE THEY MAY INCUR

RUSSIA’S PUTIN SAYS ALL THREATS AGAINST RUSSIA ARE “COUNTERPRODUCTIVE AND HARMFUL”

PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA READY TO HOST G8, BUT IF WESTERN LEADERS DON’T WANT TO COME “THEY DON’T NEED TO”

 Read more

Dead catski bounce?

Micex edition:

Depends on how confident you are that the market and economists can predict Putin’s next move, we suppose. Read more

The economic consequences of geopolitics

Clear enough where Russian assets are concerned at least… the CBR has gone to war just hiked by 1.5 percentage points to put a stop to the rouble’s tumble.

From Reuters:

The central bank did not mention Ukraine in its statement, but said the decision to raise rates was aimed at preventing “risks to inflation and financial stability associated with the recently increased level of volatility in the financial markets”…

 Read more

Ukraine $1,984,838,000 5.00 per cent Notes due 2015 — and the burning tyres therein

Moscow doesn’t send tanks into revolting former vassals any more. It sends dollars.

For anyone who decides to follow the money when it comes to Ukraine’s split between the EU and Russia, the consequences can sometimes be grimly surreal when it gets to the prosaic matters of bond finance. Read more

Russia must use Olympics to shrug off contagion talk

On the eve of the Sochi opening ceremony, FT Alphaville is pleased to present this guest post by Jorge Mariscal, emerging markets chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management…

As it hosts this month’s Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia will spend more time entertaining the world than educating it about the Russian economy. But financial market conditions mean it must also use the Games as a platform to prove some serious economic points.

This year, a tidal wave of capital outflows has engulfed emerging market currencies. Although Russia is stronger than the average developing nation, its currency and stock market have underperformed emerging market averages, with declines of 7.3 per cent and 11.6 per cent in US dollar terms, respectively. Against this backdrop, Russia needs to use the Games as a platform to advertise its resilience and competitiveness to investors. Otherwise, contagion from weaker countries risks sweeping it up. Read more

EM: the kevlar-gloved take

We’re coming to the end of a… multidirectional week for EM rates and currencies. BNP Paribas’ strategist here also pokes the media in the eye for “vying to produce the most bearish story on emerging markets…”

(Who, us?)

So we should note this dose of bullishness from the French bank: Read more