Donald Trump — one of the few remaining American presidential candidates who failed to attend Camp Alphaville last summer — has repeatedly promised he will build a wall along the southern border, with construction costs to be covered by the Mexican government. Since last August, Trump has asserted he can extract this concession by threatening to close America’s trade deficit with Mexico and by threatening to confiscate southbound remittances.
Despite being one of Trump’s signature policies for more than six months, the release of a memo fleshing out a few additional details has led to a flurry of additional coverage, much of it concerned with the possible humanitarian consequences.
We don’t want to focus on whether the idea is actually sound, but on what the proposal can teach us about the balance of payments. It’s possible Trump’s plan, if enacted, could actually cause America’s trade deficit to widen. Read more
On Wednesday, we outlined the argument that macro-prudential policy combined with increasingly stringent know-your-customer and anti-money laundering regulations may be increasing the cost of correspondent and offshore banking services for international banks, leading many to pullback from offering these services altogether.
With respect to correspondent banking, some high-level officials are now growing concerned there could be far-reaching consequences for credit provision to emerging states, remittances to them, and even political stability. Read more
Remittances are a fascinating and oft neglected slither of global capital markets.
Flows are inherently difficult to measure but the World Bank estimates ‘developing’ countries received in excess of $300bn in 2009 and 2010 — around three times more than official aid flows. Read more
Another Tilt of the hat to our blogging brethren for the heads up about a primer on Egypt out Monday from Capital Economics.
We were struck by this chart showing the components of Egypt’s current account (im)balance. Click to expand: Read more
The slide in Mexico’s remittances has, according to BNP Paribas, showed few signs of abating.
In fact, the analysts say it could be accelerating: