A quick summary of Jacques Cailloux’s thinking on the Euro sovereign debt downgrades — Caillou being chief european economist at RBS…
The market implications of the ratings review are worse than a whole downgrade of the region owing to the increased political wrangling, questions on the EFSF/ESM firewall and the fact that flight to quality still has somewhere to go. Germany comes out as a clear winner and will have its position at the negotiating table strengthened even further. The French downgrade will complicate future negotiations around fiscal integration and comes at a delicate time domestically. The loss of the AAA is likely to be politicised in the run up of the upcoming general elections and could lead to an increase in popular support for fringe parties. Read more

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