Posts tagged 'Poland'

Where is the EEMEA flow?

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Mar 08 10:39 | Comment |

An interesting anomaly is popping up in the world of Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EEMEA) flows, note Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Friday:

Investors are puzzled by the lack of EEMEA FX appreciation in spite of G-10 central bank printing. Waiting for the flow may be like Waiting for Godot: you wait and wait, but he never comes. Global rebalancing, deleveraging and higher US rates are responsible for this, in our view. In sum, the flow trends are consistent with the poor performance of EEMEA FX—and insofar as they are unlikely to change, currencies are likely to remain weak. Read more

Le cliff Polonaise

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Dec 04 2012 10:07 | Comment |

Need some help from the ghost of Fiscal Cliff future with regards to what happens if current unsustainable trajectories are unchanged?

It’s possible you need look no further than Europe. While the causes of the cliff are different, it’s still the sort of drop off that can teach a valuable lesson or two. Read more

Golden deposit troubles in Poland

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Aug 08 2012 11:11 | Comment |

The official rate in Poland is 4.75 per cent.

Yet, across the Polish high street a slew of so-called ‘para-banks’, regularly offer interest rates in excess of 8 per cent. Read more

The yield negativity is spreading…

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Jul 18 2012 16:54 | Comment |

Here’s an interesting factoid by way of Bartosz Pawlowski from BNP Paribas’ CEEMEA team — Eurozone yields aren’t the only ones being haunted by negativity.

As it turns out, euro-denominated non-eurozone debt is also treading perilously close to the zero mark. Read more

Building risks in Poland

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Jun 11 2012 11:57 | Comment |

All eyes are on Poland as it hosts the Euro 2012 football championships, but as SocGen analysts have already pointed out, there’s more than just football at stake here.

The construction boom that accompanied the tournament’s preparations is believed to have been critical in supporting the Polish economy over the last few years. Read more

Eurovision fans, please do not vote for us!

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| May 25 2012 09:45 | Comment |

Just the sort of news to make Terry Wogan chortle (via BBC):

 Read more

Would you join a monetary union like this?

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Jan 31 2012 19:03 | Comment |

That, essentially, is what many Poles are currently asking themselves.

After all, Poland has been aboard the euro-adoption boat for a long while. Expectations for eurozone entry were so ingrained in the population they even managed to spawn a euro-denominated mortgage binge. Read more

Interventions and bank queues in Eastern Europe

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Nov 23 2011 10:06 | Comment |

Reuters is reporting that Poland’s central bank stepped into the spot market for the fourth time in less than three months on Wednesday to help support the zloty versus the euro, which was once again nearing levels last seen in 2009.

But the Bank’s intervention seems to be ever less detectable in terms of price trends: Read more

Oh Schweizer!

| Aug 03 2011 16:06 | Comment |

In the aftermath of Wednesday’s unexpected rate cut and liquidity measures from the SNB — all designed to weaken the Swiss franc –  there was only one thought on many people’s minds.

Was this indeed the top for the Swiss franc? And if so, did that mean it was time to double up on perhaps the most controversial retail trade of all time in central and Eastern Europe? The Swiss-denominated mortgage or loan. (We need only to direct you to our own reader comments to give you a flavour of the sentiment.) Read more

What’s as good as gold, but potentially much more volatile?

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Jul 25 2011 16:20 | Comment |

The Swiss franc.

It has indeed often been cited as being as good as gold. Read more

Measuring Italian-ski exposure

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Jul 14 2011 15:06 | Comment |

Italian jitters, alas, have not dissipated on Thursday. The sovereign was forced to pay severely high yields (some at records) on the sale of nearly €3bn in new bonds, in what many described as a make-or-break test of investor confidence for the eurozone.

With that in mind, it’s about time we got our hands on the now traditional “who’s exposed to xxxx” figures. Read more

A fresh (IMF) sovereign contingent liability

| Mar 16 2011 14:35 | Comment |

Here’s a story that seems to have sneaked past undetected last Friday (albeit understandably).

It’s the final ratification of the IMF’s New Borrowing Arrangements (NAB) deal, complete with fresh details of exactly who is participating and on what terms. Read more

Casualties of the currency war

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Jan 05 2011 15:41 | Comment |

This is ironic, Brazil.

That’s a Nomura chart showing the Brazilian government as the biggest ‘loser’ of the currency war. You know the war we’re talking about: Brazil was the first and loudest to declare it in 2010. Oops. Read more

Strong demand for eurozone bond

| Jan 05 2011 04:22 | Comment |

The euro continued to decline against the yen and dollar on Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s planned sale by Portugal of six-month bills and by Poland of two- year and five-year bonds, reports Bloomberg. Earlier, the FT reported the EU was set to launch a multibillion-euro bond to help fund the rescue effort for Ireland, in a key test of investor sentiment for Europe’s troubled sovereign debt markets.  Bankers noted strong demand for the bonds from European, Asian and Middle Eastern investors before the official opening of order books expected on Tuesday. The EU will sell about €5bn ($6.7bn) in five-year debt, the first part of some €50bn in bonds to help the Irish bail-out over the next two years. While such issues are costly, notes FT Alphaville, the eurozone’s real problem is the asset itself. Read more

The trend continues

| Dec 01 2010 08:19 | Comment |

Same sort of messages from Turkey, Poland and Norway: New orders were up 3.2 and 1.7 points, respectively. Norway was basically flat.

Not going to move the global needle but reassuring consistency. Read more

When Latvian interbank rates trade through Euribor

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Nov 08 2010 10:00 | Comment |

Here’s an interesting datapoint unearthed up by BNP Paribas’ emerging markets deak on Monday.

The Latvian interbank rate — Rigibor — is trading through Euribor for the first time in four years… Read more

IMF enhances its credit lines

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Aug 31 2010 10:24 | Comment |

The International Monetary Fund announced on Monday that it had enhanced and expanded its lending tools to encourage needy economies getting financial aid before crises developed. The enhanced credit lines are to focus on pre-qualified countries that do not immediately need an emergency loan, according to Reuters. Flexible credit lines, which are already in place with Mexico, Poland and Colombia, are to be extended by up to two years. A new credit line with additional policy requirements for economies with ‘moderate vulnerabilities’ is also to be created, says Bloomberg. Read more

Just what is Hungary up to?

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Aug 17 2010 11:26 | Comment |

Adventures in debt management, Hungarian change-the-rules edition.

The Hungarian economic ministry made this odd little statement on Tuesday (translated from the Hungarian via Google, so be warned): Read more

Poland ‘swaps’ out its 2009 budget deficit

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Aug 06 2010 15:59 | Comment |

Oh dear. It appears some European governments never learn.

News comes to us via Dow Jones on Friday of Poland’s extremely active participation in the interest-rate and FX derivative market as recently as 2009. According to the government, these were measures designed to minimise the country’s debt servicing costs that year. Read more

About that other ‘P’ in peripheral

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Jul 27 2010 10:59 | Comment |

Here’s a somewhat surprising finding from BNP Paribas’ Bartosz Pawlowski.

A closer look at the adverse scenario assumptions made by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) for use in the European stress tests reveals one particular recession-defying European country high up in the sovereign haircut leagues. Read more

Hungarian watchdog fines Deutsche Bank on FX swap deals

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Apr 22 2010 10:33 | Comment |

The Hungarian watchdog has moved to fine Deutsche Bank in connection with activities related to fx swap deals in 2008, reports FT Alphaville. The move is interesting not because it tries to assign culpability for unsophisticated individuals and institutions getting rinsed on fair and square arrangements that backfired as market dynamics changed. Rather, it’s the fact that it alleges that Deutsche Bank willfully attempted to trip the deals by selling an inordinate amount of forints into the market in October 2008. Read more

Poland steps in to stem rise of the zloty

Tracy Alloway used to be deputy editor of FT Alphaville. Here she learned the details of derivatives, the absurdities of accounting and the various structures of ... erm ... structured finance. She now covers big US banks for the FT paper, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. She pops up on FT Alphaville every once in a while.

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| Apr 12 2010 04:12 | Comment |

The Polish zloty suffered its sharpest fall in two months on Friday after the country’s central bank intervened to stem the currency’s recent rapid rise, the FT reports. The National Bank of Poland said it had sold the zloty and bought “a certain amount” of foreign currency. The action came as the central bank sought to rein in the appreciation of the zloty, which rose 6 per cent against the euro in the first three months of this year, its strongest quarterly rise in six years. Read more

National bank of interventionski

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Apr 09 2010 13:19 | Comment |

A new European central bank turned to currency intervention this week.

As the National Bank of Poland stated simply on its website on Friday: Read more

On the matter of ECB swap lines…

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Apr 08 2010 15:00 | Comment |

FT Alphaville featured a guest post at the end of March by BNP Paribas economist Shahin Vallee, who claimed the ECB had agreed secret currency swap lines with Poland and Hungary in October 2009.

When FT Alphaville asked the European central bank about the swap lines, a spokeswoman said simply: ‘no comment’. Read more

IMF squabbles, Polish edition

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Mar 31 2010 09:55 | Comment |

A curious — if bitter — row is developing in Poland over the country’s use of its $20.5bn IMF credit line, FT Alphaville writes. The finance ministry wants more of it, while the central bank most certainly doesn’t. Where next for Poland’s recovery?  Read more

Spanish borrowers don’t ❤ swaps

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Mar 02 2010 17:17 | Comment |

Sun, sea, sand and interest-rate derivatives.

So goes the sad tale of mortgage-swap victims in Fuertventura in the Canary Islands, according to a report by Spanish online newspaper ABC.es on Monday (via Google Translate, emphasis ours): Read more

Italy ❤ currency swaps too

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Feb 18 2010 12:53 | Comment |

Turns out, sovereigns are not the only public bodies with a love of currency swaps.

Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Italian municipalities are increasingly under domestic pressure over their prevalent use of derivatives in the last few years. Read more

This little sovereign went to market…

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Feb 05 2010 09:39 | Comment |

For your consideration, a selection of five-year sovereign CDS spreads from Europe as of Thursday’s close:

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The other European deficit problem

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Feb 03 2010 13:15 | Comment |

The European Commission’s position on Greece may have been the key focus of market attention on Wednesday, but there was another country that also managed to draw some criticism from Brussels.

That country was Poland: Read more

What a difference six months makes, in the CEE

| Feb 01 2010 08:32 | Comment |

In early 2009, central and eastern Europe (CEE) was the region “most blighted by the financial crisis”, as Lex reminded us last week. There were real concerns for foreign banks with big CEE exposure – above all from Austria, Italy and Scandinavia.

And you might recall, the IMF was preparing to bail out some of the region’s most stricken countries and rating agencies were moving to downgrade big lenders to the region, amid a general feeling of crisis. Read more

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