From SocGen, with the suggestion that the recent shoddy PMI numbers might get worse before they get better:
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Compare, contrast, click to enlarge, etc — charts via Capital Economics:
The consolidated global picture: Read more
The official China manufacturing PMIs for July are not helping any bearish narratives. Unless you are of the opinion that the official stats are often manipulated from one month to the next.
HSBC/Markit’s number, meanwhile, stayed firmly at 47.7, in contrast to the official PMI rising to 50.3 from 50.1 in June. Yep, we’re here, again, attempting to understand the mysteries of the China PMIs. Read more
The China flash manufacturing PMI for July is 47.7, the lowest number in 11 months and a decent step down from June’s final figure of 48.2. It also was well short of consensus expectations that July would maintain the 48.2 level.
The employment sub-index was fell to 47.3 from 47.6 in June, its lowest since March 2009, and there’s very little to be upbeat about the breakdown — apart from diminishing inventories:
Depressing eurozone and German prints below. The eurozone composite was bleakly steady at 46.5 while the German comp hit 48.8 from 50.6 in March — its worst level in six months. The only real good news is that this might increase the chances of an ECB refi cut in the near future.
But since France came out first…. Read more
The China flash manufacturing PMIs have beaten expectations this month, coming in at 51.7 compared to 50.4 in February, and above the forecast consensus of 50.8. Here’s the table of component directions:
The flash HSBC/Markit China PMI number for February: 50.4. That’s a four-month low and quite a drop from 52.3 of January. Yet, as HSBC’s Hongbin Qu reminds us, it’s also the fourth consecutive month of expansion above 50 — the level which demarcates between above-trend and sub-trend growth.
So, what to make of it? Well firstly, Chinese New Year happened in February and, yes, you probably need to treat January and February data with caution because this holiday a) can fall in either month, and b) is huge. Read more
China’s official January manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4 from 50.6 while the HSBC survey rose to 52.3 from 51.5.
And yet it seems like only yesterday we were puzzling over why the HSBC survey seemed so much more bearish than the official figures… Read more
From Credit Suisse on Thursday morning:
BREAKING NEWS: Stronger-than-expected euro area flash PMIs in January – except for France
And the preliminary HSBC PMI figure for China this month is…wait for it…
… 51.9. Read more
November marked the first time in over a year that both the official China manufacturing PMIs and the HSBC/Markit Economics PMIs were above 50.
And they are both nearly matching! Check it out:
It’s a data-heavy day today, with a slew of PMIs coming out. The US posted the strongest reading in six months with 52.8, which was up from 51.0 in October, suggesting manufacturing is managing moderate expansion.
There was generally solid data from China as well and no very nasty surprises in Europe. Elsewhere, Brazil saw manufacturing activity grow at the fastest rate in nearly two years with a reading of 52.2, up from 50.2 in October. Read more
For quite a while now we’ve been wondering whether a quite bullish forecast by Nomura’s Zhiwei Zhang and Wendy Chen will prove correct. They believe that China’s Q4 GDP growth will be 8.4 per cent — a big jump from 7.4 per cent last quarter. Not surprisingly, today’s flash PMI has made Zhang more confident in his forecast.
We were rather sceptical when first considering it in October, because a lot of Zhang’s argument related to the local government plans that were being announced in great number in the third quarter of this year. Read more
*The unofficial ones, that is — the official PMI survey went above 50 last month and now it looks like the HSBC/Markit Economics PMI survey will do the same in November. Today’s preliminary (aka ‘flash’) PMI number for November was 50.4; the best in 13 months. However the indications about domestic and export demand contradict those shown in the latest official survey. Read more
Another day, and another confirmation that the eurozone economy is struggling to gain traction. And it’s not just the small peripheral economies that are seeing factory activity slowing.
Markit’s Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 45.4 in October from September’s 46.1. The October figure was just up from an earlier reported flash reading of 45.3. The index has been below the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction since August 2011.
The official PMI is 50.2, back in positive territory. Yay for China’s manufacturers, right?
Well, sort of, given how mixed the picture is.
Below is a breakdown of components in the official PMI survey over the past three months, via Nomura:
Today’s China flash PMIs have been a little challenging to unpick. Inventories are down and input and output prices are up — but order backlogs are down, and so is employment, which HSBC notes is contracting at a faster rate. So the mountains of inventory are shrinking and price deflation (against trend) is no longer happening… but employment is down? Read more
It’s Eurozone flash PMI time again. It’s a sad time. From Markit:
The Eurozone sank further into decline at the start of the fourth quarter, with the combined output of the manufacturing and service sectors dropping at the fastest rate since June 2009.
Germany’s IFO survey didn’t help much either.
The preliminary HSBC/Markit China manufacturing PMI for October was 49.1 — the best result in three months and a decent jump from September‘s final reading of 47.9. Growth is still below trend, but is the relative improvement a sign that monetary easing is having an effect and/or stimulus is taking place? Read more
China’s official manufacturing PMI figure was reported at 49.8 for September, an increase from 49.2 in August. Meanwhile, on Saturday the HSBC/Markit Economics PMI was 47.9, confirming the 11th month of contraction — the longest in the survey’s history.
Some China economists have welcomed the official PMI coming within a whisker of 50, but we don’t see a lot to be excited about — it seems indicate little, apart from support for a “new normal” in Chinese growth. The components of the main figure all improved, including the important “new orders” and “new export orders” numbers. However, employment fell slightly to 48.9 from 49.1. Read more
It was a PMI surprise, with UK service sector data appearing from Markit Group just before the close of trading in London on Tuesday.
It shouldn’t have happened. The original release was scheduled for Wednesday at 09.30am, but due to a Reuters Instant View error the number was outed on Tuesday at 1600. Read more
With the eurozone still signaling sharp contraction, we might have expected to see a continuation of the bleak trend seen in July, when Britain’s PMI came in at 45.2.
But no! August saw a rise to 49.5, according to Markit Group – just below the magic 50 mark that separates expansion from contract. Read more
The HSBC Markit China manufacturing PMI has been revised downwards to 47.6 in August from the flash number of 47.8 — which was in itself a sizeable fall from July’s final reading of 49.3. The August HSBC PMI signalled a tenth successive month-on-month deterioration in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions.