From Credit Suisse, do breathe in the romance:
The impact of the easing of the one child policy on birth rates may be overstated based on the experience of easing restrictions on parents who are both single children in their families (as shown in Exhibit 3). Guangzhou, a southern China city, had more than 14,000 couples, who were both single children in their families, hence eligible to have the second child, but only 360 couples had the second child in 2009.
The assumption for a long time has been that when a free floating yuan is finally born step 1 on its journey would be a joyous rush of capital inflows sweeping it upwards as foreigner investors finally got to jump into China with both feet.
But, as we’ve been arguing for a while, that might not be true anymore. Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street seems to agree: Read more
Just in case you haven’t been able to review the full 21,500 word “Decision” by the CPC’s Central Committee, covering 15 areas of reform and 60 concrete tasks, here’s a summary of the key measures, with commentary from Nomura’s Zhiwei Zhang:
1. State-ownership and monopolistic industries reform Read more
Some reaction to the relatively small amount of information that can be gleaned from the summary document released by China’s powers that be post-plenum, with the obvious caveat that the final effects of the meeting will take rather more time to emerge. Read more
(Title credit to Anne Stevenson-Yang of J-Capital, who kindly insisted we steal what we would have stolen anyway.)
Brushing aside the obvious points that Xi is ‘Deng II, the Reformer’ and that his third plenum will be a knockout success similar to the big man’s in 1978, let’s pretend there’s a chance it might go wrong. Read more
Step one: realise there are no good answers. Step two: don’t give the worst answer. Step three: be wary of the Deng vs Mao mask choice session in the afternoon. It’s a trick.
The mission for the near-dozen Communists sitting round a table at a Beijing ministry was explicit: criticize their boss, who was present. Party cadres carefully recorded their comments as they spoke, in an echo of sessions held decades ago under Chairman Mao Zedong’s direction.
Ladies and gentleman, we have what looks like a reform framework proposal…
No point in getting too excited about China’s big policy bash — November’s third plenary session of the 18th Party Congress — just yet. It may be a once-in-a-10 year event but it’s probably going to be rather coy on detail.
It’s also important to remember this is the party’s meeting not the government’s and it’s not likely everyone sees eye-to-eye on a host of issues. Never easy getting people excited about changes to the teats upon which they suckle… Read more