We think this idea deserves a little more attention. It’s another reason to maybe not panic about the fall in the US ISM manufacturing reading earlier in the month.
From Josh Lehner at Oregon Economic Analysis (and a healthy hat-tip to Calculated Risk for pointing the way): Read more
The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has ventured an update to Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff’s ‘This Time it’s Different‘, the seminal work on financial crises of the past – and their related analysis on the aftermath of financial crises.
The OOEA* uses both updated and revised data and, mostly, confirm that while things have of course gotten worse, they’re still inside the historical norms. For example, equity price declines: Read more