Posts tagged 'ONS'

Oh beloved RPI, we thought we’d lost you

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Jan 10 11:31 | Comment |

RIP old RPI!? Nah, we’ll just stick with the old Retail Price Index formula said the National Statistician on Thursday morning, surprising just about every analyst in our inbox and making holders of index linked gilts pretty darn happy. Yields have fallen by between 22bps and 38bps across maturities at pixel.

The ONS had four options to choose from, moving from ‘no change’ to the RPI through to ‘lots of change’. Each choice would have involved the Carli index, that most prettily named devil, which isn’t used by any other advanced economy’s statistical measures due, primarily, to its large upward bias. But, obviously, it still persists within the RPI where, according to estimates, it was worth nearly a 1 per cent bump in the measure per year. Read more

Stuck in the UK, but want to escape finance?

Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville.

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| Nov 08 2012 12:58 | Comment |

Head to the East Midlands.

 Read more

RIP (old) RPI and hello a happier Chancellor

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Sep 18 2012 16:53 | Comment |

The Office for National Statistics is out to get the Retail Price Index… or at least the part of responsible for the ‘formula effect gap’. But before we get to the sexy stuff — involving gilts and clauses and all — a quick statistical primer is called for.

The RPI began life as a compensation index, developed as an aid to protect ordinary British workers from price increases associated with WWI. It didn’t become the main domestic measure of inflation until much later. Read more

Are UK companies hoarding labour?

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Sep 12 2012 13:41 | Comment |

Something of a puzzle is emerging in the UK’s labour market.

The overall employment picture is definitely improving. According to the latest figures from the Office of National Statistics, the economy added more than 431,000 new jobs in the past year and the employment rate is now considered to be relatively high. At the same time, however, there’s no doubt that labour productivity has been falling — quite the opposite to the picture in the US, where productivity has been rising sharply. Read more

The UK’s inflation myth

| Dec 13 2011 10:16 | Comment |

Told ya.

From Reuters… Read more

A claimant count quandry

| Jun 17 2011 10:54 | Comment |

There is a bit of a debate developing regarding Wednesday’s employment data and in particular the significant increase in the claimant count.

For example, FT Alphaville quoted Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight saying: Read more

UK retail recession watch: Royal Wedding hangover

| Jun 16 2011 10:47 | Comment |

UK retail sales figures are out and they have managed to undershoot expectations.

The City was braced for a fall for May as consumers put their hands back in their pockets after splashing out in April (because of the good weather, the Royal Wedding, and the late Easter). Read more

The UK’s vanishing productivity (and the data’s gone too)

Tracy Alloway used to be deputy editor of FT Alphaville. Here she learned the details of derivatives, the absurdities of accounting and the various structures of ... erm ... structured finance. She now covers big US banks for the FT paper, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. She pops up on FT Alphaville every once in a while.

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| Mar 31 2011 09:00 | Comment |

FT Alphaville loves data mysteries — and there’s something particularly ironic about fourth-quarter UK productivity data not being, erm, produced on time.

Anyway, the UK’s Office for National Statistics said earlier this week that the Q4 productivity numbers scheduled for Wednesday would be delayed until April 7 because of “data quality issues.” Read more

More forecast busting UK inflation

| Mar 22 2011 09:43 | Comment |

What price a May (or even April) rate hike after Tuesday’s higher than expected inflation reading? What price a mea culpa from Mervyn King?

 Read more

Homo Britannicus Inflatus [updated]

| Mar 15 2011 11:00 | Comment |

Desperately chugging the champagne as the lights go out — or, 2011′s new and improved UK inflation basket:

Sparkling wines are also being added due to their increased consumption, showing that despite difficult economic times, people still want to enjoy themselves Read more

‘BoE rolls hand-grenade under ONS inflation,’ JPM says

Tracy Alloway used to be deputy editor of FT Alphaville. Here she learned the details of derivatives, the absurdities of accounting and the various structures of ... erm ... structured finance. She now covers big US banks for the FT paper, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. She pops up on FT Alphaville every once in a while.

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| Feb 18 2011 10:20 | Comment |

Buried a bit deep in Wednesday’s inflation report from the Bank of England — a little from BoE governor Mervyn King to the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The central bank is now claiming that CPI inflation may have been “biased down” between 1997 to 2009, because of a 2010 change in the way the ONS interprets clothing and footwear prices. So basically, the BoE says that measured inflation is now running 0.3 per cent higher than otherwise because of the ONS — convenient for a central bank under the kosh for failing to meet its inflation target (for ages). Read more

Dear Chancellor…

| Feb 15 2011 09:59 | Comment |

Time to get the quill out again, Governor.

From the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday morning: Read more

Record-breaking, forecast-busting UK inflation

| Jan 18 2011 09:52 | Comment |

UK CPI inflation surged to 3.7 per cent in December, notching up the biggest ever month on month rise of 1 per cent. The market had been expecting a figure closer to 3.3 per cent, a fact which now creates some uncomfortable reading for the Bank of England’s Monetary Polciy Committee, says FT Alphaville. Another point to bear in mind is that the 3.7 per cent rise comes even before January’s VAT increase has taken effect. Key drivers for the increase came from price rises in air transport, petrol, diesel, gas and food between November and December, according to the Office of National Statistics said. Read more

UK recession worse than thought

| Jul 13 2010 04:41 | Comment |

Concerns over the reliability of official economic statistics intensified on Monday after the Office for National Statistics refused to reveal why it had chosen last month to delay the release of GDP figures, reports the FT. As the data – which offered data revisions from 2006 to the start of this year – were published a fortnight late on Monday, City economists and others who use statistics had various theories about what had gone wrong. Read more

UK’s ONS admits numbers don’t add up

Tracy Alloway used to be deputy editor of FT Alphaville. Here she learned the details of derivatives, the absurdities of accounting and the various structures of ... erm ... structured finance. She now covers big US banks for the FT paper, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. She pops up on FT Alphaville every once in a while.

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| Jun 30 2010 03:19 | Comment |

Publication of all official data related to the UK’s national accounts will be postponed until mid-July after the Office for National Statistics announced it had found “potential errors” in the data, reports the FT. The possible mistakes were spotted in the detailed breakdowns of expenditure in the economy just before the release of the gross domestic product figures, which had been due on Wednesday. Read more

UK employment *fall*/*fail*

| Feb 17 2010 10:18 | Comment |

Yep, the UK claimant count unexpectedly rose in January. In fact it was the biggest rise since July.

From the Office of National Statistics on Wednesday: Read more

It’s over

| Jan 26 2010 09:40 | Comment |

After six quarters the UK’s longest, and possibly deepest recession since the second world war has ended – but only JUST.

Q4 GDP rose 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter, well below forecasts. (A 0.4 per cent rise was expected). Read more

UK GDP revised…

| Nov 25 2009 10:07 | Comment |

… but not by much.

From Reuters on Wednesday: Read more

GDP shock flop

| Oct 23 2009 09:35 | Comment |

The recession in the UK continues. In fact it is now the longest on record.

From Reuters: Read more

UK unemployment at highest rate since 1996

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Sep 16 2009 10:19 | Comment |

From the UK Office of National Statistics on Wednesday:

Unemployment rate - ONS Read more

Total production nightmare, or is it?

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Apr 24 2009 12:57 | Comment |

Yes, we know. The UK Q1 GDP figures are horrible. But for a truly frighteningly experience we thought we would direct you specifically to the two  following components: annual change in total production output, and the quarterly fall in manufacturing output.

As Reuters neatly sums up, at -12.3 percent and -6.2 per cent respectively both notch up the biggest declines since records began in 1948. So much for competitive devaluation you might say. Read more

Deflation avoided, phew

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Mar 24 2009 09:56 | Comment |

Back to 1960!
Those expecting the first negative retail price index number in the UK since 1960, will be disappointed.  The latest CPI/RPI figures from the Office of National Statistics show deflation has been successfully avoided in February.  Here’s the Reuters table, where RPI comes in at a sturdy UNCH:

Reuters CPI Read more

One nearly down, one to go: UK GDP contracts

Tracy Alloway used to be deputy editor of FT Alphaville. Here she learned the details of derivatives, the absurdities of accounting and the various structures of ... erm ... structured finance. She now covers big US banks for the FT paper, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. She pops up on FT Alphaville every once in a while.

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| Sep 10 2008 11:04 | Comment |

Ahead of the official Office of National Statistics GDP figures, are these from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, showing that UK GDP contracted 0.2 per cent between June and August, suggesting we’re on course for a negative third quarter.

Another contraction in the fourth-quarter, and we’re in a recession, according to loose definitions. Read more

ONS brings National Rock into the public accounts

Helen Thomas is the FT's mining correspondent in London. Previously she was a Lex writer, and also on FT Alphaville.

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| Feb 07 2008 10:54 | Comment |

Best we stop pretending. The statisticians have. Northern Rock is no more.

The Office of National Statistics has dealt the fragile facade of the bank’s private sector-status a heavy blow, saying on Thursday that it would now be classified as a public sector entity for “statistical purposes.” Read more