Posts tagged 'Moody's'

It’s never fun being the little guy

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| May 01 12:41 | Comment |

Just as your risk of a dodgy bailout is determined by your size so too, perchance, is your risk of an odd ratings action. On Tuesday Slovenia’s credit rating was junked by Moody’s, forcing it to call off a planned US dollar debt sale.

Those we have talked to are pretty baffled by this one. Not only does the timing seem strange but the critiques leveled are questionable (more on that below) particularly when you take into account the depth of the cut from Baa2 to Ba1. Read more

‘This downgrade is nonsense!’

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Feb 25 10:37 | Comment |

That’s the considered opinion of Julian D. A. Wiseman (most recently head of UK rates strategy at Société Générale but writing on his personal blog here) on the Monday after Moody’s cut its credit rating for the UK from Aaa to Aa1, taking the Bank of England down with it. For those keeping count, that makes it a downgrade that was neither surprising, nor informative nor, in itself, damaging (as Martin Wolf put it)… but more to the point it was just plain silly. Read more

Hey look, even wealthy countries can suffer creditworthiness-threatening financial crises

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Dec 18 2012 10:51 | Comment |

Moody’s announced on Tuesday that it’s reviewing its sovereign credit ratings methodology, and seeking comment from industry participants.

The review comes probably not a moment too soon — and we are not just talking about the French getting very cranky. Bloomberg reckons Moody’s sovereign ratings are unpopular, even by the low standards of sovereign ratings popularity: Read more

The ESM loses an Aaa

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Nov 30 2012 21:57 | Comment |

Moody’s has cut the eurozone bailout fund’s credit rating to Aa1, and maintained a negative outlook. It also removed provisional Aaa ratings from debt issued by the EFSF.

In a statement, the ratings agency blamed… France, whose own Aaa rating it cut last week: Read more

An actual consequence of France’s downgrade?

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Nov 20 2012 13:13 | Comment |

Not many people seem bothered by France’s overnight downgrade by Moody’s. The euro shrugged and French bond yields crept upwards at a snail’s pace.

But one place the downgrade might have a real and lasting impact is within the Swiss National Bank. They have a predilection for core eurozone bonds and the downgrade might just prompt them to ditch what holdings they have and/or stop loading up on French debt.
 Read more

Moody’s cuts France’s Aaa rating, may want to check if its next baguette explodes

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Nov 19 2012 22:35 | Comment |

Moody’s has cut France to Aa1 from Aaa, maintaining the negative outlook originally conferred in February.

Pierre Moscovici, French finance minister, was stoic at pixel time. “Moodys is now giving France the same rating as Standard & Poor’s, which has allowed us to live with low interest rates for many months,” he told Reuters. S&P cut its AAA rating for France back in January. Read more

Rating agencies have a funny way of agreeing about Spain

Lisa joined FT Alphaville in September 2011 after a tour of duty through the guts of the financial industry, having worked as an analyst at a bank and for a financial data company. She's now the Head of New Projects for FT.com.

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| Oct 18 2012 10:22 | Comment |

“Moody’s keeps gun pointed at Spain but does not pull trigger” was one of the more colourful headlines to come from the agency’s confirmation of the sovereign’s Baa3 rating with a negative outlook on Tuesday. A little rally in bonds and equities duly followed:

After the two notch downgrade by S&P about a week ago, both agencies now have the sovereign on equivalent ratings. It’s pretty hilarious to compare and contrast the reasons for each agency’s (in)action. Read more

Spanish bonds are feeling positively Moody

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Oct 17 2012 08:23 | Comment |

That’s Spain’s 10yr spread over German Bunds dropping below 400 points for the first time since the start of April:

Spanish 10yr fell to 5.547 with Bunds touching 1.5864.

Probably something to do with Moody’s qualified endorsement: Read more

Moody’s on Spanish banks and others on the bailout muddle

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Oct 02 2012 11:24 | Comment |

The Oliver Wyman report landed last week. The headline was that Spain’s banks would need almost €60bn in new capital and that seven out of the 14 Spanish banks under review failed the ‘bottom up’ test.

The actual recap figure was €59.3bn, falling to €53.7bn because banks are allowed to count in both mergers in which they’re involved and deferred tax assets. We expressed some scepticism about those DTA’s and the rather hopeful proposition that… Read more

A week of Spain-related excitement is not over just yet

Masa joined the FT in 2009 and has worked on a number of desks across the paper, including Companies, Markets and Comment. She spent much of 2010 in New York covering the US equity markets. But earlier this year she finally saw the light and moved to Alphaville.

She started her career in the investment banking division at Lehman Brothers in the summer of 2007, timing it perfectly with the beginning of the credit crunch.

She studied philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford University.

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| Sep 28 2012 14:53 | Comment |

Spain has been grabbing the headlines all this week and while it may be Friday afternoon, the excitement isn’t over just yet. Moody’s is widely expected to announce whether it’s going to downgrade Spain’s Baa3 credit rating (possibly to junk) Friday after the European markets close. Oliver Wyman’s second audit of the country’s banking system should come out around the same time.

Ahead of all that we wanted to talk you through a quick recap of the latest developments because, as UBS strategist Justin Knight rightly points out, “the areas of concern are now becoming numerous” and it’s making the question of when Spain might request aid increasingly complex. Read more

Moody’s: EU outlook moved to negative

Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville.

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| Sep 04 2012 07:42 | Comment |

The rationale here is pretty rational.  From the rating agency’s statement on Tuesday…

The negative outlook on the EU’s long-term ratings reflects the negative outlook on the Aaa ratings of the member states with large contributions to the EU budget: Germany, France, the UK and the Netherlands, which together account for around 45% of the EU’s budget revenue. The creditworthiness of these member states is highly correlated, as they are all exposed, albeit to varying degrees, to the euro area debt crisis. Read more

Fattening tails in euroland structured finance

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Aug 22 2012 09:20 | Comment |

A request for comment by Moody’s — on how to rate asset-backed securities experiencing “rapid country credit deterioration”:

(Click to enlarge) Read more

It’s Monday, it’s Moody’s, it’s negative on eurozone AAAs

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Jul 23 2012 22:11 | Comment |

Finland is a rare stable Aaa-rated credit in the eurozone, according to the ratings agency, which placed Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg on a negative outlook.

Possible contingent liabilities from rescuing Spain and/or Italy loomed large. Read more

Moody’s cuts Italy two notches

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Jul 13 2012 01:17 | Comment |

Moody’s left Italian sovereign debt two notches above junk on Friday, after downgrading it from A3 to Baa2.

The rating agency cited “signs of an eroding non-domestic investor base” for Italy’s bonds. Read more

Moody’s revises Barclays’ debt rating outlook to negative

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jul 05 2012 07:24 | Comment |

Key sentence is “senior resignations at the bank and the consequent uncertainty surrounding the firm’s direction are negative for bondholders”, although they add that recent events could be positive over the long term. Below is the full statement:

Moody’s changes outlook on Barclays’ standalone rating to negative Read more

Moody’s downgrades Spanish banks

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Jun 25 2012 23:29 | Comment |

Spanish banks have been downgraded by Moody’s because of their counterparty exposure to the sovereign that backstops them which itself just had its credit rating downgraded by Moody’s because of its pledge to support the banks on which it depends for LTRO funding.

Or something. Read more

The Moody’s bank downgrades

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Jun 21 2012 22:28 | Comment |

New York, June 21, 2012 — Moody’s Investors Service today repositioned the ratings of 15 banks and securities firms with global capital markets operations. The long-term senior debt ratings of 4 of these firms were downgraded by 1 notch, the ratings of 10 firms were downgraded by 2 notches and 1 firm was downgraded by 3 notches. In addition, for four firms, the short-term ratings of their operating companies were downgraded to Prime-2. All four of those firms also now have holding company short-term ratings at Prime-2. The holding company short-term ratings of another two firms were downgraded to Prime-2 as well.

Morgan Stanley was downgraded by two notches rather than the three which were possible. Nine other banks also lost two notches. Moody’s did downgrade Credit Suisse three notches though. The full list… Read more

Does Moody’s not read the FT letters page?

Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville.

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| Jun 15 2012 08:28 | Comment |

From Mr Michael Maslinski, on Thursday…

Sir, Richard Lesmoir-Gordon (Letters, June 8) is undoubtedly right in his conclusion that the excessive reliance on mathematics and financial models has driven out the traditional banking skills of “common sense, assessment of character, knowledge of history, how countries and cultures differ and experience of life”… Read more

Moody’s cuts Spain to one notch above junk

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Jun 13 2012 21:50 | Comment |

UPDATE: Cyprus downgraded too — see below.

Just last Friday, Moody’s warned: Read more

Moody’s tries to ruin our weekend, would have succeeded were it not already ruined

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Jun 09 2012 00:09 | Comment |

We already knew we’d have to watch for a Spanish banking bailout request tomorrow.

Now comes Moody’s with a report warning that “recent developments in Spain and Greece could lead to rating reviews and actions on many of the euro area countries” — and offering a generally downbeat if less-than-original assessment of the euro zone’s future in general. Read more

What five years of crisis history tells us

Lisa joined FT Alphaville in September 2011 after a tour of duty through the guts of the financial industry, having worked as an analyst at a bank and for a financial data company. She's now the Head of New Projects for FT.com.

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| Apr 17 2012 10:00 | Comment |

Who doesn’t like a good dataset?

As markets wade into the second quarter of 2012, reflect for a moment on the fact that the crisis sparked by subprime mortgages now has nearly five years’ worth of observational data. This is very exciting for nerds, since the conclusions from studying the period will get progressively more meaningful and insightful — something not lost on the credit strategy team at Deutsche Bank when they published their 2012 Default Study on Monday. Read more

More bank downgrades to come (eventually) (probably) (irrelevantly?)

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Mar 27 2012 15:55 | Comment |

Not a huge deal, but one to file away for May lest bank stakeholders get complacent after the recent stress test results.

We vaguely remember some people getting caught a little off guard when S&P downgraded a slew of banks last November because of a methodology change. Read more

Moody’s is reviewing a long list of European and global banks

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 16 2012 00:45 | Comment |

Moody’s ratings of Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and UBS are set to fall up to three notches after the ratings agency announced reviews of both European banks, and global banks and securities firms with credit market operations. Some banks, of course, fall into both categories and will be reviewed on both counts.

There were several statements, so rather than pasting them all in full, here are a few highlights. Read more

Moody’s shifts outlook for UK and France

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 14 2012 05:24 | Comment |

Rating agency Moody’s warned on Monday it may cut the triple-A ratings of France, the United Kingdom and Austria, and it downgraded six other European nations including Italy, Spain and Portugal, reports Reuters. Putting the United Kingdom’s rating in jeopardy for the first time, Moody’s said it was worried about Europe’s ability to undertake the kind of reforms needed to address the crisis and the amount of funds available to fight it. It also said the region’s weak economy could undermine austerity drives by governments to fix their finances. The US rating agency said it changed the outlooks for the ratings of France, the UK and Austria to negative due to “a number of specific credit pressures that would exacerbate the susceptibility of these sovereigns’ balance sheets.”  George Osborne, the UK chancellor, said the move supported the government’s tough austerity measures and was “a reality check for anyone who thinks Britain can duck confronting its debts”, reports the FT. But Ed Balls, Labour’s shadow chancellor, described the decision as a “significant warning to a chancellor who himself made balancing the books by 2015 and the views of the credit rating agencies the key benchmarks for the success of his economic policy”. Read more

Moody’s vs Europe — in full

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Feb 13 2012 23:48 | Comment |

Spain and Italy downgraded, France (and the UK) on negative outlook. The EFSF affirmed. A slew of Moody’s ratings actions on the eurozone crisis late on Monday…

(Click image for full ratings statement) Read more

Scotland’s unsolicited non-rating

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 06 2012 09:34 | Comment |

We couldn’t help but notice that the major ratings agencies were terribly coy about Scotland.

From the FT: Read more

Moody’s warns of refinancing challenge

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Jan 31 2012 10:32 | Comment |

US companies with the lowest credit ratings could struggle to refinance about $80bn of debt maturing in the coming years as sovereign debt problems potentially threaten their access to the capital markets and banks in both Europe and the US look at retreating from speculative lending, Moody’s Investors Service has warned in a new report, says the FT. The largest debt issuers in this category are some of the big buy-outs struck at the height of the credit boom, including Clear Channel Communications, with more than $16bn of debt due through 2016, Texas Competitive Electric Holdings, formerly TXU, with almost $11bn and Caesars Entertainment, formerly Harrah’s, with close to $8bn. Debt maturities for companies with ratings below investment grade, or junk, are generally manageable, however, the rating agency said. Thanks to robust financial markets in the first part of 2011, these companies have extended the bulk of upcoming maturities on their debt, known in market parlance as the “maturity wall,” to 2016 from 2014, giving some breathing room for the eurozone problems to play out. Read more

Congress scrutinises ratings agencies over MF Global

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 05 2012 04:49 | Comment |

Congressional investigators are stepping up their inquiry into how closely ratings agencies looked into the European sovereign debt bet that sank MF Global, the WSJ reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Randy Neugebauer, chairman of the House Financial Services subcommittee on oversight and investigations, sent letters to Moody’s chief executive Raymond McDaniel and Standard & Poor’s president Douglas Peterson seeking detailed information about the firms’ procedures for determining MF Global’s creditworthiness, the report says, and both had been asked to testify in a new round of hearings on the firm’s collapse in late January or early February.  The letter to Mr McDaniel asks when Moody’s “first became aware of MF Global’s exposure to European sovereign debt” and whether Moody’s had reason “to question whether MF Global was subject to risk associated with such transactions”, it says, and the letter to Mr Peterson asks whether S&P took into consideration MF Global’s January 2011 decision to replace its chief risk officer. Read more

Moody’s warns on Britain’s triple A status

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Dec 21 2011 04:11 | Comment |

Moody’s has warned that Britain’s deteriorating public finances and growth outlook have substantially reduced its ability to maintain its triple A credit rating, the FT reports. In its annual report into UK sovereign debt, Moody’s maintained the stable outlook on the top-notch rating, but the warnings from the ratings agency normally most supportive of the UK government will make waves because it suggests that unless the outlook radically improves, Britain will join other triple A-rated countries in losing their status. It has placed all of its European ratings, not just those in the eurozone, under review in a move it said “could lead to a repositioning of a large number of sovereign ratings”. Moody’s made it clear that the deteriorating UK domestic outlook, not just a potential eurozone break-up, was important in its assessment. Read more

Moody’s downgrades a trio of French banks

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Dec 09 2011 09:00 | Comment |

Showing a flair for irony we would not expect from a US-based company, Moody’s has made Europe’s morning complete by downgrading the three big French banks.

  Read more

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