Courtesy of Nomura’s Sonal Varma:
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One really has to begin any talk of India’s stumbling stock market with a bucketload of context. After all, the Sensex is well up from Modi’s election almost exactly a year ago and the recent fall is from a record peak of just under 30,000 points in January.
As to why Indian markets are struggling this year, down 7 per cent from that peak… Read more
A few questions for Coal India, 90 per cent owned by the Indian state, occasional target of UK hedge funds.
First, when you employ 370,000 highly unionised workers, how do you choose who gets to appear in the video of your corporate song?
And second, what’s the next step when your regulator says things like this?
When your bet is on policy certainty in India, maybe it’s time to reevaluate that bet…. From BofAML:
Ignoring the risk-love silliness, we think this means a whole load of policy certainty has been priced into Indian markets ahead of the Modi-led BJP’s presumed victory in the just finished elections. From BofAML again: Read more
Compare, from Nomura:
We’d like to preface this by stating that exit polls have had a patchy record in calling election results correctly in the previous two elections. Exit polls in 2004 and 2009 were proven wrong. However, we note that even if NDA achieves a 15% lower seat count than the average prediction of 285 seats, it would still place it in a comfortable position to form the government.
Contrast, from Eurasia Group:
In the last Lok Sabha election, in 2009, for example, exit polls overestimated the performance of the BJP and its allies by 4-25% while underestimating the Congress’s tally by 22-42%. Similarly, 2004 exit polls were off by a range of 22-53% for the BJP and allies’ total and missed the mark for Congress’s performance by 8-40%.
Hmmm. Read more