Posts tagged 'Modi'

Your Raghuram Rajan potential successor cheat sheet

Courtesy of Nomura’s Sonal Varma:

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The Monday morning after the RBI governor before [updated]

It has been a difficult Monday morning for India’s bankers, economists and analysts. Not only has the Rajan-era come to an unexpected close but the monsoon has thumped into the country. Now, where once certainty and clean pants existed, a world of confusion and splashed trouser legs sits soddenly.

The usual notes are coming through into our inbox too, most expressing said confusion and near-term worry, even though markets are shrugging a bit so far. Here’s a one month view of the INR and the Sensex: Read more

So you think you can bank? Indian public sector edition

Have a hypothetical on this joyous Ganesh Chaturthi

Let’s pretend you’re an Indian public sector banker. You and your ilk control about three-quarters of the country’s lending.

You know that stressed loans are an issue: Read more

India’s re-re-Modified markets

One really has to begin any talk of India’s stumbling stock market with a bucketload of context. After all, the Sensex is well up from Modi’s election almost exactly a year ago and the recent fall is from a record peak of just under 30,000 points in January.

Google Finance

As to why Indian markets are struggling this year, down 7 per cent from that peak… Read more

India: CILing me softly

A few questions for Coal India, 90 per cent owned by the Indian state, occasional target of UK hedge funds.

First, when you employ 370,000 highly unionised workers, how do you choose who gets to appear in the video of your corporate song?

And second, what’s the next step when your regulator says things like this?

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What if Modi’s a tease?

When your bet is on policy certainty in India, maybe it’s time to reevaluate that bet…. From BofAML:

Ignoring the risk-love silliness, we think this means a whole load of policy certainty has been priced into Indian markets ahead of the Modi-led BJP’s presumed victory in the just finished elections. From BofAML again: Read more

Yeah, Indian exit polls are pretty dodgy…

Compare, from Nomura:

We’d like to preface this by stating that exit polls have had a patchy record in calling election results correctly in the previous two elections. Exit polls in 2004 and 2009 were proven wrong. However, we note that even if NDA achieves a 15% lower seat count than the average prediction of 285 seats, it would still place it in a comfortable position to form the government.

Contrast, from Eurasia Group:

In the last Lok Sabha election, in 2009, for example, exit polls overestimated the performance of the BJP and its allies by 4-25% while underestimating the Congress’s tally by 22-42%. Similarly, 2004 exit polls were off by a range of 22-53% for the BJP and allies’ total and missed the mark for Congress’s performance by 8-40%.

Hmmm. Read more

Caption competition, Narendra Modi edition

Giant Assamese hat or controversial new RSS uniform? Either way we doubt it’ll distract from the opposition BJP’s failure to publish its manifesto on Thursday. Voting starts on April 7, btw. Read more