Erm, yeah… Read more
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…it was just someone using Excel on a laptop who was highlighting cells for a formula and released his index finger from the left-clicky button of his mouse too soon.
Writes Irish stand-up comedian Colm O’Regan for BBC Magazine, in his piece about “The mysterious powers of Microsoft Excel”. As you will likely have guessed, his article was inspired by spreadsheet blunders in Reinhart and Rogoff’s 2010 Growth in a Time of Debt paper. Read more
OK – Lisa’s the modelling maven and she’s promised a longer post on this paper tomorrow…
“‘The Formula That Killed Wall Street’? The Gaussian Copula and the Material Cultures of Modelling” is a recommended read (H/T Tracy Alloway). It’s not really about anything killing Wall Street — more a combination of economic sociology and an oral history stretching back to January 2007. The authors even got in touch with David X. Li. Read more
Guest post by Emanuel Derman
Foods with equal deliciousness should sell for equal prices per ounce. Read more
Hark — the standard deviation devils sing (again).
As Reuters columnist John Kemp pointed out yesterday, recent swings in the commodities complex have produced some impressive probabilities figures. The kind you can wheel out in dinner party conversation. For instance, front-month Brent crude futures sank almost $12 per barrel (or over 9 per cent) on Thursday, leading the market down from over $120 at the start of the day to under $110. Read more
How big the fall in world trade in 2008/2009?
THIS big: Read more