Posts tagged 'Michael Hartnett'

Temporisation watch

That uneasy feeling when everything is going well. Is it deserved? Can it last? Should you cash in and go paint watercolours in that studio on the Pembrokeshire coast?

Strategists are not immune, with a summer bout of the temporaries upon us. Goldman is the latest, downgrading its view of stocks over the weekend but without really committing to it:

We also downgrade equities to neutral over 3 months. We are concerned that a sell-off in government bonds will lead to a temporary sell-off in equities in line with what we saw last summer, though the magnitude is likely to be smaller as the need for bond yields to correct is lower than it was back then.

 Read more

Oh the thinks you can think

Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Michael Hartnett has offered a call to arms to thematic thinkers everywhere.

Invoking Dr Seuss he, well, judge for yourself:

In the next 40 years, the world will run out of oil. In the next 10 years, a laptop will communicate faster than a human brain. In the next 10 days, 112,000 people will retire in the US, Japan and Europe. Today, 56% of the world economy has zero interest rate policies. Tomorrow, there will be over 3.3 billion searches on Google. And in the next 10 seconds, the US national debt will rise by $322,000. Cyclical and secular trends are transforming at a fast and meaningful pace.

 Read more

If only we had known

Correlation, causation, or Rorschach test we’re not sure, but the latest from BoA ML strategist Michael Harnett leads with a quite remarkable chart.

 Read more

This isn’t nuts. Where’s the cash?

Interruption not inflection, says BoAML’s Michael Hartnett, who sees the beginning not the end of the fun.

 Read more

Squish puny humans, investment theme du jour

Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Michael Hartnet favours themes this year.

Theme number one: it doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop.

 Read more

That great rotation, charted

Turning on a para-dime…

 Read more

‘I believe in the Goldilocks recovery’

Are fund managers becoming complacent? If the latest BofA Merrill Lynch survey of the profession is anything to go by there is certainly reason to think so.

According to the April report the number of investors taking “above normal risk” in their portfolios is now at its highest level since 2006, while the number of respondents predicting above trend growth and below trend inflation has reached its highest reading since February 2008. Read more

‘A rate hike would be bullish’

Here’s an arresting graphic from Merrill Lynch’s chief global strategist, Michael Hartnett.

It shows short term interest rates during the US depression and Japan’s lost decade: Read more