Posts tagged 'MENA'

Bursting the MENA credit bubble

And now for something completely different..

Middle Eastern credit spreads could soon blow up amid an outbreak of political strife with potentially global consequences. Read more

On powerpoint and political risk

Otto van Bismarck, who knew a bit about political risk, said the thing about revolutions was to intuit God’s movements in history and seize the hem of his garment as he sweeps by.

Easier said than done, of course. Read more

And now Goldman says the commodities correction is over [updated]

Having been proven right about their prediction of a rather substantial correction in commodities  earlier this month, Goldman Sachs is now out with a new view.

A bullish view. Read more

Bahrain bank flight, quantified

Q. What happens when your prized offshore banking system is occupied by Saudi Arabia?

A. This: Read more

Meanwhile, in Bahrain…

Call it the first response to the Abdullah-Brehznev doctrine.

The FT reports Tuesday that Bahrain has declared a state of emergency and asked the military to reassert its control over the capital, Manama, as clashes between Shia and Sunni groups spread across the country. Read more

Day of raging tranquility

After Thursday’s reports that Saudi Arabian security forces had shot at protesters in the country’s eastern region, there was a good chance the long-anticipated Day of Rage would be one of today’s big market stories.

Instead the earthquake in Japan has rightly been the focal point, while the Day of Rage fizzled. The Washington Post reported earlier that all was quiet even in Qatif, the site of yesterday’s shootings. Read more

QE as ‘shock therapy’

Most of the world’s focus is on Libya-related contagion spreading into other Middle Eastern countries and kingdoms.

But, suggests a report from Standard & Poor’s research arm on Tuesday, it may be time to start looking a little further afield. Read more

The big four ‘known unknowns’ for oil

Citi analysts raised their Brent oil estimate to $105 and $100 for 2011 and 2012 respectively, from $90/barrel, on Monday.

That’s as Brent crude sits tight around the $115 per barrel mark, with WTI not far behind at $105 per barrel. Read more

The “autocracy risk premia” of frontier market bonds

In responding to the direct action of protestors, investors (indirectly) may never before have attached so much weight to democratic credentials, and we suspect there have been few such moments in history when a small number of institutional characteristics can explain so much variation in bond prices.

That’s in a new paper by frontier market investment shop Exotix (full paper in the usual place; hat tip Sid Verma at FT Tilt), which has applied “a model-based approach that focuses only on variables directly related to the underpinnings of unrest” and found that “democratic credentials have been a key determinant of relative frontier bond performance so far in 2011.” Read more