FT Alphaville » Inflation http://ftalphaville.ft.com FT Alphaville - Market Commentary - FT.com Wed, 22 May 2013 04:51:37 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 A gap-ing problem http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/13/1496692/a-gap-ing-problem/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/13/1496692/a-gap-ing-problem/#comments Mon, 13 May 2013 15:34:52 +0000 Cardiff Garcia http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1496692 Gavyn Davies has a great post looking at the recent work by Fed researchers and the Goldman Sachs economics team on trends in US labour force participation and their implications for US monetary policy. See also Robin Harding last month.

To recapitulate, the US unemployment rate has continued to decline steadily, and at its current pace would hit the Fed’s 6.5 per cent threshold to begin raising rates by roughly the middle of next year.

Continue reading: A gap-ing problem]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/13/1496692/a-gap-ing-problem/feed/ 0 Asian currency wars, exporting deflation and the house price bind http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/09/1492672/asian-currency-wars-exporting-deflation-and-the-house-price-bind/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/09/1492672/asian-currency-wars-exporting-deflation-and-the-house-price-bind/#comments Thu, 09 May 2013 11:08:26 +0000 Kate Mackenzie http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1492672 Bank of Korea has done its bit to stoke the currency wars…

Although they insist that it’s not. From BAML’s Jaewoo Lee:

In the press interview, the Governor cited a few main changes since April which led the BoK to cut in May rather than in April: the supplementary budget was finalized; many central banks, including the ECB, turned to easing mode; and the easing can help further with improving sentiments. The Governor, on the other hand, stated that today’s decision was not a response to the yen weakness, contrary to the often-voiced speculation.

Continue reading: Asian currency wars, exporting deflation and the house price bind]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/09/1492672/asian-currency-wars-exporting-deflation-and-the-house-price-bind/feed/ 0 Inflation is falling everywhere http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/08/1491842/inflation-is-falling-everywhere/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/08/1491842/inflation-is-falling-everywhere/#comments Wed, 08 May 2013 16:08:37 +0000 Cardiff Garcia http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1491842

(Charts via Capital Economics.)

The trend is consistent with what appears to be a spring slowdown in global growth. It’s probably worth noting that the wild fluctuations in the headline rate have had only a muted impact on core inflation in the past decade. Just something to keep in mind when you start hearing calls for policy action at the first hint of commodity price gyrations.

Continue reading: Inflation is falling everywhere]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/08/1491842/inflation-is-falling-everywhere/feed/ 0 Ze price stability http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/02/1484752/ze-price-stability/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/02/1484752/ze-price-stability/#comments Thu, 02 May 2013 09:35:06 +0000 David Keohane http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1484752

Continue reading: Ze price stability]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/02/1484752/ze-price-stability/feed/ 0 The core CPI-PCE inflation gap http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/01/1483792/the-core-cpi-pce-inflation-gap/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/01/1483792/the-core-cpi-pce-inflation-gap/#comments Wed, 01 May 2013 17:02:47 +0000 Cardiff Garcia http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1483792 Barclays economists write that the gap between core CPI and core PCE in the United States has widened to its largest in about a decade. They have an interesting note explaining some of the reasons why, though not all of them are clear and right now this is mainly an academic issue:

Continue reading: The core CPI-PCE inflation gap]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/01/1483792/the-core-cpi-pce-inflation-gap/feed/ 0 Eurogloom http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/30/1481652/eurogloom/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/30/1481652/eurogloom/#comments Tue, 30 Apr 2013 09:14:48 +0000 Paul Murphy http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1481652 Some stagnant stats out of Eurostat on Tuesday….

Euro area unemployment rate at 12.1%
EU27 at 10.9%

Here’s the damage, broken down…

Continue reading: Eurogloom]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/30/1481652/eurogloom/feed/ 0 Have the inflation-paranoid capitulated? http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/19/1467142/have-the-inflation-paranoid-capitulated/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/19/1467142/have-the-inflation-paranoid-capitulated/#comments Fri, 19 Apr 2013 12:19:44 +0000 Izabella Kaminska http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1467142 Thursday’s 5-year US Treasury TIPS auction was something of a noteworthy one, according to Kit Juckes at Societe Generale. Click to enlarge…

Continue reading: Have the inflation-paranoid capitulated?]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/19/1467142/have-the-inflation-paranoid-capitulated/feed/ 0 The changing nature of inflation http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/17/1464852/the-changing-nature-of-inflation/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/17/1464852/the-changing-nature-of-inflation/#comments Wed, 17 Apr 2013 16:31:42 +0000 Izabella Kaminska http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1464852 The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook has made some very interesting observations about the changing nature and growing stability of inflation.

Most notable is the following chart:

Continue reading: The changing nature of inflation]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/17/1464852/the-changing-nature-of-inflation/feed/ 0 Cheap dates and weekend getaways http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/03/1446402/cheap-dates-and-weekend-getaways/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/03/1446402/cheap-dates-and-weekend-getaways/#comments Wed, 03 Apr 2013 11:16:57 +0000 David Keohane http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1446402 Don’t go to Australia (but do click to enlarge the charts):

Continue reading: Cheap dates and weekend getaways]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/03/1446402/cheap-dates-and-weekend-getaways/feed/ 0 A new era for gold? http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/03/15/1424472/a-new-era-for-gold/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/03/15/1424472/a-new-era-for-gold/#comments Fri, 15 Mar 2013 09:37:29 +0000 Izabella Kaminska http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1424472 Here follows a thoughtful commentary on the changes going on in gold market from BNY Mellon's Neil Mellor, including the point that central bank purchases are in many ways helping to stabilise what might otherwise be a much more substantial slump.

Our emphasis throughout...

Continue reading: A new era for gold?]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/03/15/1424472/a-new-era-for-gold/feed/ 0