Chart via Calculated Risk using data from Josh Lehner, and it compares the current US employment recovery against “the previous Big 5 crises, as identified by Reinhart and Rogoff, in terms of job loss and the return to peak time line”. Read more
From a Europe mired in an unresolved sovereign debt crisis and in the midst of trying to recapitalise its banking sector, all this positive US economic data is frankly just irritating.
In fact it’s been so good in terms of positive employment and manufacturing metrics that the Rates & Currencies team at BofAML published a piece entitled “The USA a safe haven again” with this line in it: Read more
China is underreporting the amount of steel it makes by about 40m tonnes a year – roughly the amount made by Germany, the FT says. Detective work by Meps, a UK steel consultancy, indicates that Chinese steel output last year was 672m tonnes – nearly half of the world output – as opposed to the 627m tonnes reported by the Chinese authorities. The underreporting has been corroborated by several industry participants, including one of the three big global iron ore producers, and provides insights into the recent high prices for the main raw material used by the world steel industry.
The QEased commodity debate continues…
Our latest contribution to the “Yes, quantitative easing is making commodity prices go bananas” comes from Vivin Oberoi, head of global macro research and Trading at Telluride Asset Management — a hedge fund based in Wayzata, Minnesota. Read more
China’s economy continued to slow in July even as consumer price inflation rose again, intensifying the debate about whether recent efforts to tighten policy have gone too far, reports the FT. As efforts to calm the property market and reduce energy consumption began to bite, the rate of increase in industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales all fell in July. New banks loans and money supply growth slowed.
An astonishing rebound in industrial fortunes in Europe’s largest economy is countering gloom about growth prospects in continental Europe and other parts of the world. German industrial orders rose 2.8 per cent in April compared with the previous month and were almost 30 per cent higher than a year before, says the FT. Anecdotal evidence from German companies highlights the blitzschnell (lightning fast) recovery under way.
Believe it or not — with Greece and China having been suspected at various points of economy with the truth, yet another sovereign state has been accused of fiddling its statistics.
This time round it is Russia. Read more
The debate over China’s prospective inflationary path continues to intensify, with worries mostly focused on the effects of a loose lending policy and the dispersion of capital spending. But as FT Alphaville argued, one area that potentially counters such talk, however, is the lingering effect of industrial overcapacity in key Chinese sectors. Read more
US industrial production figures recorded their 16th monthly drop in May according to Fed data released on Tuesday. The glaring figure, though, was industrial capacity utilisation which dropped to a record-low of 68.3 per cent.
Some commentary on the subject comes our way on Wednesday from Stephen Schork, energy market analyst and author of the Schork report. As he notes, the manufacturing figure came in at an even worse rate of 65 per cent. Prior to this recession, the low for the series which began in 1948, was 68.6 per cent set in December 1982. Read more