In this guest post, former IMF staffer Peter Doyle argues that in pushing for pensions, VAT and labour reforms, creditors are only stoking the latent explosiveness of Greece…
Troika-Greek negotiations are reportedly down to the wire over early-retirement pensions, VAT, and labor reforms: the IMF says all are non-negotiable; Tsipras, perhaps inadvertently echoing Mrs. Thatcher, has, so far, responded “No! No! No!”
These three issues converge on those at the upper end of their working lives, the 50-74 year old cohort, and are reflected in its participation and unemployment behavior. So it is worth considering data on those and the associated implications for the negotiations. Doing so suggests that these creditor red lines lack foundation. Read more
Spoiler alert. In this guest post, former IMF staffer Peter Doyle, argues that some participants in the on-going Greek crisis might be suffering from anosmia…
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A flurry of fresh headlines: Greek stocks pummelled; “Air of unreality” as IMF quits talks. A seemingly credible report from Germany’s Bild saying Angela has resigned herself to possible Grexit.
There was that aggressive Giavazzi op-ed in the FT.
Oh, and 10,000 Greeks have taken their own lives over the past five years of crisis, according to Theodoros Giannaros, a public hospital governor, whose own son committed suicide after losing his job.
Maybe this is the end, end game. Read more
A post-dated cheque without the drawing rights, that is.
As Tsipras and co stagger towards the next IMF payment deadline on Friday, all the while spitting furiously about the supposed abolition of democracy in Europe, it seems extraordinary that Greece has made it thus far without an event. Consider the payment schedule so far, from JP Morgan, published at the beginning of March… Read more
With a big h/t to Faisal Islam, here’s what the Bank of England was thinking at the start of September and just before that IMF loan in 1976 (do click through for the full thing):
Might have to pop this at the top, it’s a chart with lots of negative yield stuff on it after all:
Now, as we have said before… friends don’t let friends extrapolate too wildly from the IMF’s COFER data. Read more
Consider this from Gavekal’s Chen Long. If nothing else, it puts China’s local government debt restructuring in context:
Of course, that context also involves noting the restructuring’s potential to get a whole load bigger. Which then demands we put that in its own context of China’s general plan to deal with its debt load and, eventually, note that what China means by capital account liberalisation mightn’t be quite what everyone else means by capital account liberalisation. Read more
In this guest post, Gabriel Sterne, head of global macro research, Oxford Economics, looks at previous large drawdowns in Greek bond prices for clues about the future.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou “asked our partners to contribute decisively in order to give Greece a safe harbour” five years ago this week.
Since then, Greek government bond (GGB) prices have plunged by 37 per cent — or more! — four separate times, with one amazing long rally in between: Read more
Here’s former IMF staffer Peter Doyle , with some bold advice from the wings of the IMF Spring meetings…
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Courtesy of the IMF and spotted by Toby Nangle, do click to enlarge:
Thousands of officials, journalists, academics and market professionals will soon be in Washington DC for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, from April 17 to 19. Former IMF staffer Peter Doyle advises attendees on what to really ask the IMF.
Another spring, another IMF Spring Meeting, another set of IMF platitudes—a two-, three- (or is it four?)-speed, variably geometric, or airline metaphoric world economy, making progress, more to do, notably for the poor, sundry complacencies and risks to beware. Even Occupy has been put to sleep by these rituals.
But much goes on behind this veil of blur. Here are five steps to get to what matters. Read more
This guest post is from Peter Doyle, an economist and former IMF staffer
In an otherwise sound critique of Mr. Varoufakis’ list of proposals for Greek government policies last week, Mme. Lagarde’s letter to Mr. Dijsselbloem contains an additional, unremarked, but revealing element. After saying that, in the IMF’s view, the Greek list was sufficiently comprehensive to be a valid starting point for a successful conclusion of the review, she added:
… but a determination in this regard should of course rest primarily on an assessment by Member States themselves and by the relevant European institutions.