Posts tagged 'History'

That ’70s recession?

A pretty interesting paper, and conclusion, from the Bank of England’s External MPC unit on Friday — or at least one that should keep the debate going over the art/science of GDP revisions… Read more

The surprisingly long path to US monetary union

European monetary union: so troubled, so awkward and ill-conceived, et cetera.

And so… speedy?

We spent a bit of time last year pondering precedents and possible scenarios for monetary union break-ups, of which there are few with much appeal. But Deutsche Bank strategist Stuart Parkinson makes the interesting argument that it took about 147 years for the US to become a monetary union. Read more

Copula culture

OK – Lisa’s the modelling maven and she’s promised a longer post on this paper tomorrow…

“‘The Formula That Killed Wall Street’? The Gaussian Copula and the Material Cultures of Modelling” is a recommended read (H/T Tracy Alloway). It’s not really about anything killing Wall Street — more a combination of economic sociology and an oral history stretching back to January 2007. The authors even got in touch with David X. LiRead more

Making eurozonians, or not

Huge hat-tip to Paul Kedrosky for this – an eye-catching chart from JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest’s ‘Eye on the markets’ note (click to enlarge):

 Read more

Otto’s revenge

– Parachuted in by the great powers of the time Read more

Keep calm and call the War Loan

(Alternative title: Financial repression meets the History Channel?)

Telling the UK government to issue 100-year bonds clearly wasn’t out-of-the-box enough for Societe Generale’s rates strategist Julian Wiseman. Read more

BHL sur la crise

We don’t know. We really really don’t know.

Bernard-Henri Lévy writing for the Huffington Post: Read more

Nero Berlusconi

Just to put the boot in on the historical analogies…

The Evening Standard of Londinium, AD 2011Read more

Doing a Newfoundland

The Amulree Commission on a peripheral debt crisis, 1933:

No part of the British Empire has ever yet defaulted on its loan obligations; in the absence of any precedent, the consequences which would follow from a default by Newfoundland must remain to some extent a matter for speculation. But if no precedent can be drawn from the history of the Empire, instruction may be derived from the experiences of other countries, and it is clear from these that any play of default such as that outlined above could be approved with the greatest apprehension…

 Read more

Jean-Claude Trichet, the almost-Hamiltonian

Presenting a… revisionist view of why the European Central Bank president hates any Greek debt restructuring, in whatever form.

One in which the stakes get a lot higher too. Read more

A brief history of Greek debt collateralisation

Earlier, we considered whether the Republic of Greece is turning into a giant collateralised debt obligation.

This is because proposals to have the EFSF back a Greek government bond buyback appear to introduce some element of collateralisation to Greece’s debt. Although it’s all very complex – and we could be wrong. Read more

Great Recession not that great after all, apparently

It’s amazing how little a few trillion dollars gets you these days.

We like a wee bit of historical perspective here on FT Alphaville, and this week’s edition compares the costs of the recent financial crisis with those of its antecedents. Read more

No sovereign is safe

Some consolatory reading for the GreekIrish… and Portuguese finance ministers on Friday. Citigroup chief economist Willem Buiter has taken a long hard look at other developed sovereigns — and has used the opportunity to remind that no sovereign is safe.

It’s billed as a response to a recent IMF paper arguing that default (in the eurozone in particular) would be ‘unnecessary, undesirable and unlikely’. Read more

Steampunk chartism

Hindenburg Omens are for kids. Here’s a tip of the top hat to Barry Ritholtz for unearthing this nineteenth-century great-grand-daddy among technical cycles:

 Read more

‘Big bankers stared at one another in anger and astonishment’

From the archives of Time magazine, a worthwhile read on how US bankers reacted to the “monstrous system of guaranteeing bank desposits” – aka, financial regulation, 1933 style:

Through the great banking houses of Manhattan last week ran wild-eyed alarm. Big bankers stared at one another in anger and astonishment. A bill just passed by both houses of Congress would rivet upon their institutions what they considered a monstrous system of guaranteeing bank deposits. Such a system, they felt, would not only rob them of their pride of profession but would reduce all U. S. banking to its lowest level. They saw their deposits which they had spent a lifetime to build up and protect with their good names confiscated by the Government to pay for the mistakes and dishonesty of every smalltown bankster.

 Read more

Historic moments in Chinese banking

Are you a Chinese politician looking for ideas to pare back your country’s lending boom?

Well, look no further! According to a new NBER paper, your own history — circa the late Qing dynasty — has some excellent policy insights. From the abstract, emphasis ours: Read more