Posts tagged 'Grexit'

‘Greek limbo’ is two words. TWO!

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Oct 31 2012 10:35 | Comment |

So, the Greek government has left this latest, very long, round of eurozone marriage counselling to head into, well, predictable domestic acrimony with headlines like “Crucial Test for Greek Coalition” trailing in its wake. From the ekathimerini:

“We did everything we could. We achieved significant improvements,” noting that Greece would remain in the euro if the package was passed and otherwise risked “descending into chaos.” “It is now down to the sense of responsibility of all political parties and each individual MP,” Samaras said.

Democratic Left issued a rejection within minutes, saying it does not agree with the outcome of negotiations with troika and repeating its objection to labor reforms.

JP Morgan’s Alex White points out that the next few weeks are going to be critical and that this one is likely going to the wire… again. Read more

Putting a new drachma in historical perspective

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Oct 29 2012 13:06 | Comment |

Here’s a chart from Nomura:

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A Grexit delayed if not denied

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Oct 12 2012 16:46 | Comment |

Citi are pushing that fateful day back:

We have held the view, since May 2012, that a Greek exit from the euro area (“Grexit”) in the next 12 to 18 months is a high-probability event (90%) which we assume, for the sake of argument, would happen on January 1 2013. We are now cutting the probability of Grexit over the next 12-18 months to 60% and judge that this event will probably happen later than we previously thought, most likely in 1H 2014.

A cynic might suggest they were getting the jitters as deadline approached but lets hear them out (our emphasis). Read more

The Greek budget shortfall gets bigger

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Sep 25 2012 08:53 | Comment |

Apparently that Greek shortfall is even bigger than the even bigger figure reported in the German press on Monday.

From Eurointelligence: Read more

Trucks of cash and empty New Drachma accounts

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Sep 03 2012 09:15 | Comment |

That’s a couple of the examples of preparations that US companies are making for a Greek eurozone exit, according to the New York Times.

Here’s the trucks: Read more

Troika ties hands to mast, waits for Greece

Lisa joined FT Alphaville in September 2011 after a tour of duty through the guts of the financial industry, having worked as an analyst at a bank and for a financial data company. She's now the Head of New Projects for FT.com.

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| Aug 28 2012 17:36 | Comment |

If you hit your head hard enough, you’re bound to start forgetting things.

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An ECB “CGBPP”

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Aug 23 2012 08:40 | Comment |

We can’t get enough of these — predictions for the format that the ECB’s new, “convertibility risk”-focused bond-buying programme might take.

This one’s from Citi’s Global Economic Outlook for August, which dubs the expected ECB operation the “Conditional Government Bond Purchase Programme” (snappy!). Citi forecasts that  the ‘CGBPP’ will concentrate on buying T-bills. These are usually protected from losses during a sovereign debt restructuring: Read more

On Greece and spilt milk

Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville.

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| Aug 10 2012 09:04 | Comment |

The drum beat of Euro grandees hinting that Greece should just get out of the Eurozone is getting louder once more. Here’s former Bundesbanker Otmar Issing discussing the matter in simple language for the audience of CNBC…

Click to view. Read more

Poll reveals 28% of finance professionals sick of being asked about Grexit

Lisa joined FT Alphaville in September 2011 after a tour of duty through the guts of the financial industry, having worked as an analyst at a bank and for a financial data company. She's now the Head of New Projects for FT.com.

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| Aug 09 2012 17:45 | Comment |

We asked, and you answered by completing FT Alphaville’s (wholly unscientific) survey on Tuesday.

The hastily put together intricately designed poll reveals that 41 per cent of finance professionals, students, developers, and random people* think that Greece will exit the euro within the next year. Read more

Who’s bluffing about a Grexit?

Masa joined the FT in 2009 and has worked on a number of desks across the paper, including Companies, Markets and Comment. She spent much of 2010 in New York covering the US equity markets. But earlier this year she finally saw the light and moved to Alphaville.

She started her career in the investment banking division at Lehman Brothers in the summer of 2007, timing it perfectly with the beginning of the credit crunch.

She studied philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford University.

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| Jul 26 2012 18:13 | Comment |

The recent utterings from Europe’s political elite regarding a Greek exit from the euro and reports that the IMF is ready to walk away have been hard to read. To what extent are these warnings pure postulation? The timing is rather suspicious, given that they have coincided with the Troika delegation’s visit to Athens to assess how the austerity programme is coming along.

On the other hand, if they reflect the mood among the policymakers, there is reason to be worried, especially given how freely and eagerly they are now discussing a potential exit. Read more

Buiter’s now predicting Grexit probability of 90%

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jul 26 2012 10:07 | Comment |

Citi’s iconoclastic chief economist Willem Buiter and team are seeing a very high likelihood of a Greek eurozone exit in the not-too-distant future, and a sovereign bailout likely for both Spain and Italy this year.

From their latest global update (our emphasis): Read more

Wolfson economics prize, the submissions

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Jul 05 2012 17:24 | Comment |

Capital Economics’ Roger Bootle has won the £250,000 Wolfson Economics prize for finding a practical way to break up the eurozone.

Though, as it turns out, Bootle doesn’t think it would be all that practical. Read more

Learning by imagining (nightmare Eurexit scenarios)

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jul 03 2012 11:50 | Comment |

FT Alphaville didn’t enter the Wolfson economics competition, in part because our pizza drawing skills don’t pass muster, but Nomura’s Jens Nordvig and Nick Firoozye did. Their entry landed them one of the five finalist spots (more about those here).

Ahead of the announcement of the winner on Thursday, the pair have published a rather interesting and disturbing list of what they learned in the process of eurozone breakup solutionising. It won’t please anyone who’s been arguing that a break-up might not be such a big deal. Here’s a tl;dr version of their list of grim learnings: Read more

Can someone tell this “EU Source” to shut up?

Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville.

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| Jun 11 2012 16:39 | Comment |

Click to read

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Moody’s tries to ruin our weekend, would have succeeded were it not already ruined

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Jun 09 2012 00:09 | Comment |

We already knew we’d have to watch for a Spanish banking bailout request tomorrow.

Now comes Moody’s with a report warning that “recent developments in Spain and Greece could lead to rating reviews and actions on many of the euro area countries” — and offering a generally downbeat if less-than-original assessment of the euro zone’s future in general. Read more

On the (marginal) advantages of the Greek bank jog

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Jun 08 2012 17:19 | Comment |

We’ve all been griping about the “bank jog” that has been eating away at the Greek banks’ deposit base — €70bn or so of deposits flying out of the country’s banks seems to be a bad news no brainer.

But what if the scale of the flight has a counter-intuitive positive side? (Although “ever so slightly less negative side” would probably be a better description.) Read more

England and the eurozone: channel tunnels

Lisa joined FT Alphaville in September 2011 after a tour of duty through the guts of the financial industry, having worked as an analyst at a bank and for a financial data company. She's now the Head of New Projects for FT.com.

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| May 29 2012 10:04 | Comment |

The pound has been the strongest performing G10 currency so far this year, even though it has been weakening of late against the US dollar and Japanese yen.

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From Citi, another Grexit scenario

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| May 23 2012 23:46 | Comment |

Grexit not this year. Maybe in 2013, with a 10 per cent drop in GDP. Continued financing from the IMF and the EU (through the Balance of Payments Assistance facility, possibly) to cushion the blow.

All those prognostications and more… Read more

Eurozone exposures charted (a.k.a. Malta’s sorrow)

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| May 22 2012 16:13 | Comment |

The little guy always gets ignored, as these charts from Nomura’s Jens Nordvig and Dimitris Drakopoulos show:

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Depressing eurozone summary du jour

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| May 22 2012 13:02 | Comment |

Another day… another round of eurozone soul searching. This time UBS has sent out a Tuesday triptych of eurozone angst.

The first note, from Paul Donovan, covers off the flaws in the eurozone’s conception (little new ground but always worth remembering) and touches on Target2 liabilities and parallels: Read more

This is why Grexit fears might be overdone

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| May 21 2012 08:40 | Comment |

We pointed out on Friday that a poll suggested Greeks were far from wanting out of the eurozone and would actually return to New Democracy in adequate numbers for a pro-bailout coalition to be formed. From Reuters:

The poll, the first conducted since talks to form a government collapsed and a new election was called for June 17, showed the conservative New Democracy party in first place, several points ahead of the radical leftist SYRIZA which has pledged to tear up the bailout. Read more

Your handy one-table guide to the cost of Grexit

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| May 15 2012 14:02 | Comment |

Courtesy of Eric Dor, Director of research at the IESEG School of Management, Université Catholique de Lille:

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