Posts tagged 'Greece'

Caption contest! When Tsipras met Asmussen edition

 Read more

A Greek bond offer hangs around even longer

Did you forget that Japonica’s offer to buy up a huge chunk of the Greek bond market still exists?

It might be easy to. They’ve just extended the deadline again by another month.

For holders tendering at a 15 percent to 20 percent large block illiquidity discount to observed bid-ask midpoint prices, the Acquirer reserved the right to reimburse up to 50 percent of the cost of independent fairness opinions. These fairness opinions specify the range of the double discount in the current market and are an industry best practice. The double discount includes the discounts for large blocks of fixed income securities and for highly illiquid fixed income securities.

 Read more

A clearer(?) Greek bond raid

FT Alphaville had expected to report the triumphant acquisition of almost 10 per cent of the Greek bond market by a single, little-known investor on Monday. As per the original July 1 deadline on Japonica Partners’ unusual offer to bondholders.

A pleasure denied: Read more

Finland has a collateral credibility issue

So, a plurality of the Finnish public may just agree with FT Alphaville.

Click to enlarge. That’s a Gallup poll by Helsingin Sanomat on the Finnish government’s Greek ‘collateral’. Read more

A Greek bond raid – will it work?

And so FT Alphaville comes across “TENDER OFFER MEMORANDUM — INVITATION FOR TENDER IN RESPECT OF BONDS OF THE HELLENIC REPUBLIC”: the official launch of Japonica Partners’ eye-catching attempt to buy up to 10 per cent of Greece’s restructured bonds, in a kind of Dutch auction.

And there’s one very important point here. Read more

Guest post: Regrets, IMF had a few

The International Monetary Fund’s “ex post evaluation” of its involvement in the Greek bailout continues to generate debate over the weaknesses revealed. Gabriel Sterne, a senior economist at Exotix with two decades of public sector experience including at the IMF, argues that the issues for the fund go much deeper.

____________________________________________________ Read more

Ignored Many Flaws — the report

Click for the IMF’s “ex post evaluation” of its role in the Greek bailout. Its mea culpa.

And if you thought we were being harsh here, parts of the real thing are excoriating.

This is even though the report decides Greece’s exceptional access to IMF lending was justified (generally), and it still says much fiscal adjustment could not be avoided. Policies were “broadly correct”. But it does strongly suggest that debt restructuring should have come sooner.

Excerpts follow…

 Read more

Ignored Many Flaws

So, the International Monetary Fund (effectively) wishes to apologise to all concerned for that little thing where it turned into Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s presidential election campaign a few years back.

Sorry if a country got broken along the way: Read more

A Greek bond raid — more details

Just when we thought we’d dreamed Monday’s news of this.

The mysterious folks at Japonica Partners have come out with their full “tender offer” to buy up almost 10 per cent (€2.9bn) of Greece’s restructured bonds: Read more

Finland’s Greek collateral: still pointless

Well, the apparent uselessness of Finland’s Greek ‘collateral’ is all very embarrassing, and it’s also terribly public by this point. But surely there can’t be that much backlash over this rather arcane derivatives transaction.

Ah, hold on. Read more

A Greek bond raid

We are not quite sure what is going on here.

Japonica Partners, a self-styled “entrepreneurial co-investment firm” based in Providence, Rhode Island, has launched a tender offer for almost 10 per cent of all Greek government bonds in circulation.

It’s ready to buy paper worth €2.9bn at par, paying a minimum of 45 per cent of face value. Read more

Finland has a swap… that’s a bit pointless

Somehow — was it the ludicrous secrecy, maybe? — you could tell this was coming.

On Wednesday, Jan Hurri at Taloussanomat took advantage of the Finnish government’s recent doc dump in order to reach a conclusion about its deal for ‘collateral’ on Greek bailout loans: Read more

Finland still had a few secrets

Over 20 of them, actually.

Jan Hurri, a journalist for Taloussanomat, noticed that a number of documents were missing from the Finnish government’s recent, court-ordered disclosure about the ‘collateral’ for its Greek bailout loans… Read more

Upgrade driven rally du matin

An upgrade in this environment is apparently stupidly effective. Here’s Greece’s 10-year bond yield tumbling a full one per cent the day after Fitch upgraded it to to B- from CCC, and said the outlook was stable:

 Read more

Finland’s got a secret… no longer

Abuse of official secrecy. It’s been one of the more corrosive but — by definition — shadier aspects of the eurozone crisis.

It can take the form of a report on money-laundering in Cyprus. Or the opaque process by which Troika debt sustainability analyses are drawn up. Emergency liquidity assistance to banks, even. Read more

Cyprus, where the vicious circle stopped

In continental Europe, we are witnessing the rather extreme outcome that results from having the provision of liquidity divorced from an ability to regulate banks…

UBS analysts John Paul Crutchley and Alastair Ryan, 2009 Read more

Meanwhile, in Greece…

Dromeus Capital. The name might ring a bell. It’s the fund which did its homework on underpriced Greek assets last year, making a killing.

Pretty striking, then, that they’ve now gone cautious on Greece. Read more

Beyond financial repression

A couple of years back, when Carmen Reinhart and Belen Sbrancia updated the concept whereby governments might deal with a problematic mountain of debt by confiscating the savings of their subjects, the discussion was all about the subtle, sleight of hand solutions that might be employed.

Artificially cheap rates of interest might be forced on the embattled sovereign’s debt, local banks might be obliged to buy mis-priced government paper, exchange controls may be erected, and so on. Ordinary people, it seemed, could be financially repressed without realising they were in fact the victims.

There was no discussion back then of outright expropriation or a “tax”, as insured (and uninsured) depositors at Cypriot banks are now being forced to bear. Read more

A stupid idea whose time had come

A “one-off” often isn’t. Calling something after “stability” isn’t very stable. Saying that something is not a precedent usually makes it one.

Presenting the Cyprus bailout’s “upfront one-off stability levy” for depositors in Cypriot banks: Read more

A statistician speaks out

It’s Andreas Georgiou, the head of Greece’s independent statistics agency, Elstat.

 Read more

It’s Mostly Fiscal (Transfer), all over again

We saw this coming from the IMF all the way back in March 2012 — when Greece’s PSI was just over, and vague notions of OSI were already in the air. Read more

Greece’s fragile bond rally

Greece may have an ongoing issue or two, but that didn’t stop its government debt rallying 274 per cent in the second half of last year. Clearly, the driver was the reduced likelihood of it leaving/being kicked out of the eurozone, rather than the (dismal) economics.

Gabriel Sterne at Exotix says the run was one of the “most astounding sovereign bond rallies of all time”, but that the bonds are now over-bought. The declining possibility of a Grexit, he says, is more than fully priced in (his emphasis): Read more

Greek government finds it can’t have its moussaka and eat it

Greece has had a break from the headlines recently, but how long can it last? With a banking system that’s soon going to need shoring up again, probably not long. Read more

Don’t call it a boondoggle

Greece paid up to 40 cents in the euro for one of the bond in its buyback. Average price: 33.8 cents in the euro.

Or rather wants to pay. It has “advised… official creditors” that it wants another €1.29bn in EFSF notes to purchase all of the bonds tendered, up from the original €10bn.

The results, in table form via this release (click to enlarge): Read more

If you’re going to CAC, now might be a good time — Greece edition

Yep, this is a Greece post in a series on Argentina and the pari passu saga.

We’ll explain. Read more

An (extended) offer from Greece…

Click for details. The Greek PSI bond buyback now closes at 12pm London time on December 11.


Now, is this supposed to be a veiled threat if investors choose not to tend their bonds? From the Greek debt office chief, Stelios Papadopoulos: Read more

Greece joins cool circle

You’re just not cool these days if you aren’t operating some sort of circular mechanism to reduce your debt levels in the eyes of the outside world. And it appears that Greece, sick of being bullied by the circular crew, is looking to get in on the act.

We’re talking about the Greek debt buyback, which should be completed on Friday if deadline talk is to be believed. Read more

You’re in selective default (again), S&P tells Greece [updated]

No explanation had been given by S&P at pixel time. [Update: it's pasted below the jump.] But the situation is pretty clear: Greece’s “voluntary” buyback of the PSI bonds is being carried out in distressed conditions (ie it will otherwise lose eurozone financial support). Read more

A Dutch auction for Greece…

Click for details.

 Read more

So, who’s going to sell their Greek bonds?

Much has been made of the buyback announced as part of the latest Greek debt reduction deal. Mainly because more than half of total debt savings agreed are expected to come from the buyback, according to this leaked doc.

The details of how the scheme is might actually work are pretty thin on the ground, but we know from the leak that the plan is to spend €10.2bn (from the EFSF most likely) buying back and retiring bonds. It is expected that this will lead to a reduction of 11 per cent of GDP by 2020. Read more