FT Alphaville » Germany http://ftalphaville.ft.com FT Alphaville - Market Commentary - FT.com Fri, 24 May 2013 21:30:09 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 On the virtuous circle of exporting deflation http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/24/1473662/on-the-virtuous-circle-of-exporting-deflation/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/24/1473662/on-the-virtuous-circle-of-exporting-deflation/#comments Wed, 24 Apr 2013 08:13:35 +0000 Izabella Kaminska http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1473662 We thought the following from TD Securities’ Richard Gilhooly on Tuesday was a rather insightful way of looking at the whole BoJ effect (our emphasis):

While it remains a contentious point and as yet unproven, Japan’s devaluation and soaring Nikkei vs slumping DAX or Bovespa has all the hallmarks of a competitive devaluation. While competing factions debate the Monetary expansion/QQE, versus beggar-thy-neighbour interpretation, one positive aspect of the Japanese Yen collapse and fear of exported deflation has been collapsing commodity prices with weak growth in export countries (China, Germany, S Korea) and a stronger USD helping a supply story (crude inventories at 22yr highs) and weak demand send commodities into a bear market.

Continue reading: On the virtuous circle of exporting deflation]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/24/1473662/on-the-virtuous-circle-of-exporting-deflation/feed/ 0 Small graces: French flash PMI edition [updated... now with less grace and more PMIs] http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/23/1470882/small-graces-french-flash-pmi-edition/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/23/1470882/small-graces-french-flash-pmi-edition/#comments Tue, 23 Apr 2013 07:27:37 +0000 David Keohane http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1470882 Depressing eurozone and German prints below. The eurozone composite was bleakly steady at 46.5 while the German comp hit 48.8 from 50.6 in March — its worst level in six months. The only real good news is that this might increase the chances of an ECB refi cut in the near future.

But since France came out first….

Continue reading: Small graces: French flash PMI edition [updated... now with less grace and more PMIs]]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/23/1470882/small-graces-french-flash-pmi-edition/feed/ 0 When stress and spreads part company http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/03/14/1423272/when-stress-and-spreads-part-company/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/03/14/1423272/when-stress-and-spreads-part-company/#comments Thu, 14 Mar 2013 17:33:55 +0000 Paul Murphy http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1423272 William Porter at Credit Suisse has been mulling the market’s muted reaction to the Italian elections. Increased stress is no longer finding its way into widening spreads, thanks to the Draghi “put”.

This credit strategist is concerned. A dampened signaling mechanism increases the risk of something going badly wrong — a market crash, even.

Continue reading: When stress and spreads part company]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/03/14/1423272/when-stress-and-spreads-part-company/feed/ 0 Cyprus: new face, much the same problem http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/02/19/1391642/cyprus-new-face-much-the-same-problem/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/02/19/1391642/cyprus-new-face-much-the-same-problem/#comments Tue, 19 Feb 2013 09:56:26 +0000 David Keohane http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1391642 Cyprus is almost over the first hurdle — the pro-bailout Nicos Anastasiades handily won the first round of the island’s presidential elections last week. As the FT notes, he will face Stavros Malas, the Akel (Cyprus communist) party candidate, who won 27 per cent, in the run-off on February 24 and it’s pretty likely Anastasiades will come out on top.

What is less likely, is that there will be a sudden move towards that €17bn-ish international bailout Cyprus has hankering for. It’s not as if there has been unseemly speed so far:

Continue reading: Cyprus: new face, much the same problem]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/02/19/1391642/cyprus-new-face-much-the-same-problem/feed/ 0 The dangers of German wage growth http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/02/15/1388662/the-dangers-of-german-wage-growth/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/02/15/1388662/the-dangers-of-german-wage-growth/#comments Fri, 15 Feb 2013 16:19:22 +0000 Masa Serdarevic http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1388662 The eurozone’s largest economy has defied the crisis better than most expected, yet it couldn’t maintain growth in the final quarter of last year, shrinking by an estimated 0.6 per cent. That compares to France’s 0.3 per cent and Spain’s 0.7 per cent respective falls. But given that usually Germany is the region’s engine of growth, the key question is how long this weakness might last.

Fortunately it seems that the recovery might be brisk.

Continue reading: The dangers of German wage growth]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/02/15/1388662/the-dangers-of-german-wage-growth/feed/ 0 Unemployment: it’s not all back to the 1970s, but a serious chunk of it might be http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/01/11/1332022/unemployment-its-not-all-back-the-1970s-but-a-serious-chunk-of-it-might-be/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/01/11/1332022/unemployment-its-not-all-back-the-1970s-but-a-serious-chunk-of-it-might-be/#comments Fri, 11 Jan 2013 11:24:04 +0000 David Keohane http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1332022 You know what doesn’t often conjure images of economic happiness? The 1970s, that’s what. And the argument coming from some quarters right now is that Europe, or at least its periphery, is heading back into such a period of stagnation and chronic inflation with unemployment leading the way.

Continue reading: Unemployment: it’s not all back to the 1970s, but a serious chunk of it might be]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/01/11/1332022/unemployment-its-not-all-back-the-1970s-but-a-serious-chunk-of-it-might-be/feed/ 0 Take the German political landscape, add Cypriot banks slowly, do not allow to boil… umm, whoops http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/01/09/1327783/take-the-german-political-landscape-add-cypriot-banks-slowly-do-not-allow-to-boil-umm-whoops/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/01/09/1327783/take-the-german-political-landscape-add-cypriot-banks-slowly-do-not-allow-to-boil-umm-whoops/#comments Wed, 09 Jan 2013 11:42:57 +0000 David Keohane http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1327783 From a report by Germany’s spy agency in early November arguing that the main beneficiaries of aid to Cypriot banks would be rich Russians who have invested illegal money there, through to a very public bailout veto threat. All in just two months! Speedy work indeed by Germany’s opposition.

From Eurointelligence on Wednesday:

Suddeutsche Zeitung is reporting this morning that the SPD [Social Democratic Party] is considering blocking a Cyprus deal on the grounds that it won’t support tax dumping and money laundering.

Continue reading: Take the German political landscape, add Cypriot banks slowly, do not allow to boil… umm, whoops]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/01/09/1327783/take-the-german-political-landscape-add-cypriot-banks-slowly-do-not-allow-to-boil-umm-whoops/feed/ 0 The eurozone in recession in ‘all senses of the word’ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/11/15/1264053/the-eurozone-in-recession-in-all-senses-of-the-word/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/11/15/1264053/the-eurozone-in-recession-in-all-senses-of-the-word/#comments Thu, 15 Nov 2012 12:14:13 +0000 Masa Serdarevic http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1264053 As expected, the eurozone economy shrunk in the third quarter. But, fortunately, not by quite as much as expected.

Thursday’s data did, however, confirm that the debt crisis in southern Europe is hitting the ‘core’ economies in northern Europe, and analysts seem in agreement that it’s going to get significantly worse.

Continue reading: The eurozone in recession in ‘all senses of the word’]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/11/15/1264053/the-eurozone-in-recession-in-all-senses-of-the-word/feed/ 0 This eurozone PMI record appears to be broken http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/11/02/1243471/this-eurozone-pmi-record-appears-to-be-broken/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/11/02/1243471/this-eurozone-pmi-record-appears-to-be-broken/#comments Fri, 02 Nov 2012 10:12:29 +0000 Masa Serdarevic http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1243471 Another day, and another confirmation that the eurozone economy is struggling to gain traction. And it’s not just the small peripheral economies that are seeing factory activity slowing.

From Reuters:

Markit’s Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 45.4 in October from September’s 46.1. The October figure was just up from an earlier reported flash reading of 45.3. The index has been below the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction since August 2011.

Continue reading: This eurozone PMI record appears to be broken]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/11/02/1243471/this-eurozone-pmi-record-appears-to-be-broken/feed/ 0 (Seemingly) Perpetually Miserable Indices http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/10/24/1226691/seemingly-perpetually-miserable-indices/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/10/24/1226691/seemingly-perpetually-miserable-indices/#comments Wed, 24 Oct 2012 09:25:37 +0000 David Keohane http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1226691 It’s Eurozone flash PMI time again. It’s a sad time. From Markit:

The Eurozone sank further into decline at the start of the fourth quarter, with the combined output of the manufacturing and service sectors dropping at the fastest rate since June 2009.

Germany’s IFO survey didn’t help much either.

Continue reading: (Seemingly) Perpetually Miserable Indices]]> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/10/24/1226691/seemingly-perpetually-miserable-indices/feed/ 0