Posts tagged 'Germany'

On the virtuous circle of exporting deflation

Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP's internal magazine.

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| Apr 24 09:13 | Comment |

We thought the following from TD Securities’ Richard Gilhooly on Tuesday was a rather insightful way of looking at the whole BoJ effect (our emphasis):

While it remains a contentious point and as yet unproven, Japan’s devaluation and soaring Nikkei vs slumping DAX or Bovespa has all the hallmarks of a competitive devaluation. While competing factions debate the Monetary expansion/QQE, versus beggar-thy-neighbour interpretation, one positive aspect of the Japanese Yen collapse and fear of exported deflation has been collapsing commodity prices with weak growth in export countries (China, Germany, S Korea) and a stronger USD helping a supply story (crude inventories at 22yr highs) and weak demand send commodities into a bear market.

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Small graces: French flash PMI edition [updated... now with less grace and more PMIs]

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Apr 23 08:27 | Comment |

Depressing eurozone and German prints below. The eurozone composite was bleakly steady at 46.5 while the German comp hit 48.8 from 50.6 in March — its worst level in six months. The only real good news is that this might increase the chances of an ECB refi cut in the near future.

But since France came out first…. Read more

When stress and spreads part company

Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville.

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| Mar 14 17:33 | Comment |

William Porter at Credit Suisse has been mulling the market’s muted reaction to the Italian elections. Increased stress is no longer finding its way into widening spreads, thanks to the Draghi “put”.

This credit strategist is concerned. A dampened signaling mechanism increases the risk of something going badly wrong — a market crash, even. Read more

Cyprus: new face, much the same problem

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Feb 19 09:56 | Comment |

Cyprus is almost over the first hurdle — the pro-bailout Nicos Anastasiades handily won the first round of the island’s presidential elections last week. As the FT notes, he will face Stavros Malas, the Akel (Cyprus communist) party candidate, who won 27 per cent, in the run-off on February 24 and it’s pretty likely Anastasiades will come out on top.

What is less likely, is that there will be a sudden move towards that €17bn-ish international bailout Cyprus has hankering for. It’s not as if there has been unseemly speed so far: Read more

The dangers of German wage growth

Masa joined the FT in 2009 and has worked on a number of desks across the paper, including Companies, Markets and Comment. She spent much of 2010 in New York covering the US equity markets. But earlier this year she finally saw the light and moved to Alphaville.

She started her career in the investment banking division at Lehman Brothers in the summer of 2007, timing it perfectly with the beginning of the credit crunch.

She studied philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford University.

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| Feb 15 16:19 | Comment |

The eurozone’s largest economy has defied the crisis better than most expected, yet it couldn’t maintain growth in the final quarter of last year, shrinking by an estimated 0.6 per cent. That compares to France’s 0.3 per cent and Spain’s 0.7 per cent respective falls. But given that usually Germany is the region’s engine of growth, the key question is how long this weakness might last.

Fortunately it seems that the recovery might be brisk. Read more

Unemployment: it’s not all back to the 1970s, but a serious chunk of it might be

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Jan 11 11:24 | Comment |

You know what doesn’t often conjure images of economic happiness? The 1970s, that’s what. And the argument coming from some quarters right now is that Europe, or at least its periphery, is heading back into such a period of stagnation and chronic inflation with unemployment leading the way. Read more

Take the German political landscape, add Cypriot banks slowly, do not allow to boil… umm, whoops

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Jan 09 11:42 | Comment |

From a report by Germany’s spy agency in early November arguing that the main beneficiaries of aid to Cypriot banks would be rich Russians who have invested illegal money there, through to a very public bailout veto threat. All in just two months! Speedy work indeed by Germany’s opposition.

From Eurointelligence on Wednesday:

Suddeutsche Zeitung is reporting this morning that the SPD [Social Democratic Party] is considering blocking a Cyprus deal on the grounds that it won’t support tax dumping and money laundering.

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The eurozone in recession in ‘all senses of the word’

Masa joined the FT in 2009 and has worked on a number of desks across the paper, including Companies, Markets and Comment. She spent much of 2010 in New York covering the US equity markets. But earlier this year she finally saw the light and moved to Alphaville.

She started her career in the investment banking division at Lehman Brothers in the summer of 2007, timing it perfectly with the beginning of the credit crunch.

She studied philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford University.

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| Nov 15 2012 12:14 | Comment |

As expected, the eurozone economy shrunk in the third quarter. But, fortunately, not by quite as much as expected.

Thursday’s data did, however, confirm that the debt crisis in southern Europe is hitting the ‘core’ economies in northern Europe, and analysts seem in agreement that it’s going to get significantly worse. Read more

This eurozone PMI record appears to be broken

Masa joined the FT in 2009 and has worked on a number of desks across the paper, including Companies, Markets and Comment. She spent much of 2010 in New York covering the US equity markets. But earlier this year she finally saw the light and moved to Alphaville.

She started her career in the investment banking division at Lehman Brothers in the summer of 2007, timing it perfectly with the beginning of the credit crunch.

She studied philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford University.

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| Nov 02 2012 10:12 | Comment |

Another day, and another confirmation that the eurozone economy is struggling to gain traction. And it’s not just the small peripheral economies that are seeing factory activity slowing.

From Reuters:

Markit’s Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 45.4 in October from September’s 46.1. The October figure was just up from an earlier reported flash reading of 45.3. The index has been below the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction since August 2011.

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(Seemingly) Perpetually Miserable Indices

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Oct 24 2012 10:25 | Comment |

It’s Eurozone flash PMI time again. It’s a sad time. From Markit:

The Eurozone sank further into decline at the start of the fourth quarter, with the combined output of the manufacturing and service sectors dropping at the fastest rate since June 2009.

Germany’s IFO survey didn’t help much either.

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Eurozone wage adjustment, charted

Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville.

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| Oct 23 2012 15:05 | Comment |

Or peripheral pain in terms of growth/shrinkage in compensation per employee. It offers a striking illustration of why both Greeks and Germans have reason to feel peeved… Read more

Counting das gold at Fort Knox

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Oct 23 2012 08:40 | Comment |

Germany wants to audit its gold held abroad. Paranoia or sensible book keeping? To be fair, there’s quite a bit of it (feel free to read that any way you choose). From the Spiegel:

Germany has the second largest gold reserves in the world, nearly 3400 tons. Supposedly, anyway. Because stocks have never been checked for authenticity and weight. Now, the Federal Court has asked the Bundesbank to examine the gold reserves abroad regularly.

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What’s the German for ‘property porn’?

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Oct 16 2012 11:36 | Comment |

“Immobilie porn”, suggests Google Translate but we’re open to correction.

Either way, this piece from the FT on Tuesday makes for good reading. It suggests there may be a bubble building in the German property market with Berlin in particular looking peaky, although that must be caveated with the relatively sedate nature of the market previously. Read more

Today’s word is ‘Staatsbankrott’

Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville.

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| Oct 15 2012 10:10 | Comment |

Non-german speakers should be able to guess the meaning, especially if we add the words ‘Greece’ and ‘Wolfgang Schaeuble’ by way of context.

Yes, Staatsbankrott = ‘state bankruptcy.’

Not that it’s going to happen in the case of Greece, of course — at least not according to the German finance minister. Read more

A Grexit delayed if not denied

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Oct 12 2012 16:46 | Comment |

Citi are pushing that fateful day back:

We have held the view, since May 2012, that a Greek exit from the euro area (“Grexit”) in the next 12 to 18 months is a high-probability event (90%) which we assume, for the sake of argument, would happen on January 1 2013. We are now cutting the probability of Grexit over the next 12-18 months to 60% and judge that this event will probably happen later than we previously thought, most likely in 1H 2014.

A cynic might suggest they were getting the jitters as deadline approached but lets hear them out (our emphasis). Read more

Sperrzone!

Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville.

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| Oct 09 2012 10:55 | Comment |

Here’s the running order for Angela Merkel’s last? visit to Athens. Graphic courtesy of Bild.

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Target2 chart du jour

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Oct 08 2012 16:49 | Comment |

Look, look: it’s Target2 imbalances… rebalancing… slightly.

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Why is Merkel visiting Athens on Tuesday?

Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville.

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| Oct 08 2012 16:27 | Comment |

Serious question.

What’s the justification for creating a three-ring security circus in the Greek capital, a general strike and quite possibly a major riot? Read more

A German sloowww doowwwnnnn

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Oct 04 2012 12:37 | Comment |

If you think Germany’s response to the crisis has been less than lightning swift so far…

JP Morgan’s Alex White argues that the German policy motor may be about to properly slow down, and with it the response to the eurozone crisis which usually moves at Germany’s speed: Read more

IFOnly Germany could avoid a recession

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Sep 24 2012 10:37 | Comment |

Germany business sentiment fell again in September, from 102.3 to 101.4, marking its fifth succesive month of contraction. The roughly 7,000 companies surveyed by the Ifo institute were also increasingly pessimistic about their futures… which doesn’t bode well for everyone else’s.

Forecasts had been for a slight increase in the index but, with typically sharp turnaround speed, our inboxes now expect a recession. Capital Economics said the expectations index in particular, down from 94.2 to 93.2, indicates an annual fall in GDP of nearly 1 per cent: Read more

Faust and the German aversion to debt

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Sep 19 2012 09:23 | Comment |

Poor Jens Weidmann.

After weeks of macro-economic sniping following his isolation at the European Central Bank over its new bond-buying policy, Jens Weidmann on Tuesday resorted to Goethe’s Faust to make his point. The classic play highlighted, he argued, “the core problem of today’s paper money-based monetary policy” and the “potentially dangerous correlation of paper money creation, state financing and inflation”. Read more

Burying a banking licence

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Sep 12 2012 14:42 | Comment |

Would you like three long, dense paragraphs of German legal rumination on a idea that’s already DOA? That’d be the ESM funding itself through European Central Bank liquidity.

Of course you would (and if not, you can always skip to the analysis below): Read more

Schaeuble says…

Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville.

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| Sep 11 2012 11:01 | Comment |

German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was addressing the Bundestag on Tuesday…

BFW 09/11 08:28 Schaeuble Says Greece Has Undertaken ‘Impressive’ Steps
BFW 09/11 08:26 Schaeuble Says ECB’s Independence Must Be Defended, Respected
BFW 09/11 08:18 Schaeuble Says Euro Crisis ‘Not Over,’ Be Around for Months
BN 09/11 09:08 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GERMANY AGAINST `DEBT UNION, EURO BONDS’
BN 09/11 09:07 *SCHAEUBLE: GERMANY SHOWS GROWTH, CONSOLIDATION NO CONTRADICTION
BN 09/11 09:05 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GERMANY UNLIKELY TO BEAT 1.6% GROWTH 2013
BN 09/11 09:04 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GERMANY TO AT LEAST MEET 2012 BORROWING TARGET
BN 09/11 08:36 *SCHAEUBLE: GERMANY WILL EXCEED DEBT BRAKE REQUIREMENTS BY FAR
BN 09/11 08:35 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GERMANY DETERMINED TO CUT NEW BORROWING
BN 09/11 08:33 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GERMAN 2012 0.7% GROWTH FORECAST WELL SUPPORTED
BN 09/11 08:31 *SCHAEUBLE: FUTURE ESM BANK RECAPS MUST BE REQUESTED BY STATES
BN 09/11 08:31 *SCHAEUBLE: UNREALISTIC TO HAVE SUPERVISION OF 6,000 BANKS SOON
BN 09/11 08:26 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS EUROPE HAS LEARNED FROM ITS CRISIS
BN 09/11 08:25 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS STABILITY AND GROWTH PACT HAS `MORE TEETH’ NOW
BN 09/11 08:25 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS `WE’RE ON THE RIGHT TRACK’ IN THE EURO REGION
BN 09/11 08:25 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS ITALY, SPAIN HAVE MADE CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS
BN 09/11 08:24 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GREECE PROGRAM CONDITIONS CAN’T BE RENEGOTIATED
BN 09/11 08:24 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GREECE MUST MEET ALL PROGRAM CONDITIONS
BN 09/11 08:24 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS PORTUGAL FIGURES SHOW REFORMS TAKING HOLD
BN 09/11 08:23 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GERMAN PARLIAMENT MUST BACK NEW AID PROGRAMS
BN 09/11 08:21 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS ECB’S INDEPENDENCE MUST BE DEFENDED, RESPECTED
BN 09/11 08:21 *SCHAEUBLE: SHARED LIABILITY, PRINTING PRESS WON’T SOLVE WOES
BN 09/11 08:21 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS THERE WON’T BE ONE BIG BANG TO SOLVE CRISIS
BN 09/11 08:20 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GERMANY UNLIKELY TO SEE STRONG UNEMPLOYEMNT GAIN
BN 09/11 08:17 *SCHAEUBLE: GERMANY BETTER ADJUSTED TO GLOBALIZATION THAN OTHERS
BN 09/11 08:16 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GERMANY HAS BECOME MORE RESILIENT TO SHOCKS
BN 09/11 08:14 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GERMAN ECONOMY’S EXPANSION IS SLOWING
BN 09/11 08:13 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS EURO CRISIS `NOT OVER,’ BE AROUND FOR MONTHS
BN 09/11 08:12 *GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER SCHAEUBLE SPEAKING IN GERMAN PARLIAMENT
BN 09/11 08:12 *SCHAEUBLE SAYS ECONOMIC SITUATION OVERSHADOWED BY EURO CRISIS Read more

No delay from Karlsruhe

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Sep 11 2012 08:38 | Comment |

From Reuters earlier on Tuesday:

Germany’s constitutional court said on Tuesday it would not postpone its long-awaited ruling on the legality of the euro zone’s bailout fund despite a new legal challenge by a eurosceptic lawmaker. Read more

German domino theory and book-cooking

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Sep 10 2012 13:14 | Comment |

There are two fairly important bits to this story in Der Spiegel.

One, that Merkel wants to avoid a Grexit for the time being and two, that the upcoming Troika report might be massaged to make that a reality. Read more

Eurozone PMIs: from still bad to worse

Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville.

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| Sep 03 2012 09:44 | Comment |

Let’s start on a positive note on the volley of Markit PMI released Monday.

Spain’s PMI rose during August to 44, versus 42.3 in July… Read more

Balkanisierung

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Aug 29 2012 16:11 | Comment |

Here’s a call from Sober Look on Tuesday — Germany’s growth might be on the cusp of going negative:

So much for the hopes and dreams of German decoupling from the Eurozone’s economic troubles. How things have changed in just six months… Germany’s growth trajectory is now converging with the rest of the euro area’s weakened economic conditions. Read more

Germany on Greece: a dramatis personae

David joined the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012.

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| Aug 23 2012 11:50 | Comment |

Ahead of  Greek PM Antonis Samaras’ meeting with Angela Merkel on Friday we thought a look at Germany’s cast and position might be worthwhile… especially since the Greek leader is set to pitch for a two-year extension to meet fiscal targets set out in the loan agreement at that meeting.

As the FT notes: Read more

Spreads and that damn seniority

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Aug 16 2012 20:57 | Comment |

Here’s an interesting exercise in eurozone sovereign credit, courtesy of Francesco Garzarelli of Goldman — click charts to enlarge:

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Ironische Bundesbank lessons

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Aug 07 2012 18:31 | Comment |

A grainy picture of some central bankers. A warning in German that “it is immensely amateurish to renounce this mechanism.”

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