China’s Q4 GDP is due out this Friday. Huzzah!
If you’re wondering how seriously to take it… wonder no more. Read more
This summer hasn’t been entirely quiet. There were the Olympic Games, for example. And, errr, also economists have been having a busy time — revising their growth forecasts downward as they fret about whether recoveries around the globe are in any way sustainable.
Here’s a table from Morgan Stanley’s economics team, showing what busy bees they’ve been: Read more
The German economy grew five times faster than expected in the first quarter of the year, jumping 0.5 per cent. Admittedly expectations were for only 0.1 per cent growth but still, tis cheering news on a wet London morning – particularly considering the 0.2 per cent hit German GDP took in the last quarter of 2011.
The year on year increase was 1.7 per cent, beating expectations of a 0.8 per cent jump, and the German statistics office said growth was supported by an increase in net trade as exports to outside the eurozone gained. Read more
You can say what you want about the achievements of the WTO; it sure is nice to be part of the club.
Certainly that is what the Kremlin will be thinking this morning after Russia cleared the final hurdle to joining the 153-nation trade organisation after 17 years of trying. Read more
So much for emerging markets propelling the world economy out of its current malaise.
Forget China’s healthy manufacturing data; the debt crisis in the Eurozone, deleveraging in the US and sluggish economic growth across the developed world will restrain EM economic activity for the rest of this year and into 2012. Read more
Fast economic growth, like all good things, must end. But when?
An NBER working paper by Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin released on Monday uses data from 1957 through 2007 to suggest when and why slowdowns occur in fast-growing economies. Read more
Well, this is a turn-up for the books.
Amid strong scepticism about the ability of future Irish growth to offset Ireland’s post-bailout austerity programme — the economy managed to post its first quarterly increase since late 2007 in Q3 2010, according to initial estimates (chart via the Central Statistics Office): Read more
The US exported more, imported less and had higher consumer spending than previously thought in the third quarter, according to revised growth data that point to a brighter economic outlook, the FT reports. US GDP grew at 2.5 per cent compared with preliminary estimates of 2 per cent. Consumer spending growth contributed a full two percentage points, but this overall rate is not enough to solve high unemployment rates. At the same time, payroll data from US states is encouraging, reports Bloomberg. By contrast, housing sales plunged in October, the NYT says, though noting that analysts had already expected a sharp decline. Meanwhile, Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture lays into the Zombie Bears. Read more
Get ready for a blockbuster seven days in the market, says FT Alphaville — next week brings the US mid-term elections, the FOMC’s likely QE2 decision as well as policy meetings at the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the ECB. If anything, the elections may be the least market-moving of the week’s events, with all eyes on the Federal Reserve’s stimulus measures instead. A wave of poor industrial activity data from Asia are encouraging traders to trim bets on growth-focused assets before Friday’s main event of US Q3 GDP, says the FT. The economy is forecast to have grown 2 per cent on an annualised basis, ahead of 1.7 per cent growth in the second quarter but still far from enough to tackle high unemployment, reports Reuters. Read more
And it was RBS analysts wot won it.
Economic growth in the third quarter chewed up consensus forecasts and spat them out on Tuesday — recording 0.8 per cent above a predicted 0.4 per cent. Read more
A beat for Ben.
US second-quarter GDP growth was revised from 2.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday, above a consensus of 1.4 per cent revised growth. Read more
Again with the outperforming UK second-quarter GDP numbers.
The Office for National Statistics revised last month’s already shockingly good data upward on Friday. Read more
So, you’ve heard it before, but this time, it’s official – at least, by most key measures. China has now overtaken Japan as the world’s second-largest economy, just seven months after becoming the world’s third-largest economy in January.
As the FT reports on Monday: Read more
Buoyant exports and a decline in the value of the euro allowed Germany to reassert itself as the economic growth engine of the eurozone in the second quarter, the FT reports, after gross domestic product expanded at a stellar 2.2 per cent rate compared with the previous three months. European bourses and the euro rallied on the data, which dwarfed a forecast 1.3 per cent rate, Reuters says. But growth this robust can’t be sustained into a second half beset by US and Chinese economic fear, the WSJ notes.
In any case, it’s more evidence of a two-tiered recovery in Europe, the FT adds – and perhaps across the Atlantic, FT Alphaville notes, after observing that Bunds now look like the real global risk-free rate after ten years, compared to Treasuries filling this position for the next two years. Or so the negative US swap rate indicates, for now. Read more
The Commerce Department’s advance report on GDP is expected to show markedly slower growth in the United States in the second quarter, Reuters reports. Weaker consumer spending and a widening trade deficit may have led GDP to increase by 2.5 per cent compared to 2.7 per cent in the first quarter, according to Reuters’ survey. However, slowdown is normal, if grim, for economies recovering from a financial crisis, says the NYT. Even so — plenty of hedge fund managers are glum on the prospects of a slowdown in all the advanced economies, Bloomberg reports – with signs of slowing growth apparent in Japan’s post-crisis recovery, too, the FT adds. Read more
The first growth and public finance forecasts from Britain’s new Office for Budget Responsibility are out and — as expected — they’re lower than the last predictions, made in March, reports FT Alphaville. Britain’s economy is forecast to grow 2.6 per cent in 2011, compared to the previous estimate of 3.25 per cent. Read more
1Bird, plane, Abe
2The US collateral shortage lives on
3Alphachat: Lee Buchheit edition, featuring Lee Buchheit
4The (early) Lunch Wrap
5Re-setting ENRC (updated)
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