Posts tagged 'Gary Jenkins'

Rate expectations

How much forecasting, we wonder, amounts to ‘the present, plus or minus a bit’.

Not because it is a bad way to make predictions, rather that if there has been little change for a long time in something like benchmark interest rates, the expectation for change itself is likely to shrink. Eventually it becomes hard to imagine anything much different from the present at all.

Thoughts which arise thanks to Gary Jenkins, Chief credit strategist for LNG Capital, who draws our attention to an unscientific poll taken at the recent European Leverage Finance Conference. Read more

Rejoice! Or something…

Welcome back, UK readers!

So the weekend that some folk were predicting things would have to get real for the eurozone came and… nothing much happened. Except that Spain really came out and said its banks need help, by which it most definitely did not mean the kind of help that might be construed as a ‘bail-out’. Oh and G7 finance ministers had a chat on the phone and… nothing much happened. Read more

What’s an EFSF guarantee worth?

As momentum gathers behind the (deep breath) first loss guarantee on new issuance approach for Europe’s bailout vehicle, Gary Jenkins examines some of the pros and cons.

Leverage aside, the biggest plus point,  says the Evolution analyst, is that the EFSF would not have to raise any money. Read more

Italy… from a high yield perspective

The ‘Morning Flash’ from Evolution Securities’ Gary Jenkins of Evolution Securities is something of a must read at the moment.

On Monday, he drew our attention to the rise in Italian government bond yields and illustrated just how quickly things can get out of control – just before they sort of did. Read more

Another squall in the periphery


ATHENS (Dow Jones)–Greece’s 2010 budget gap is expected to reach 9.3 per cent of gross domestic product, well above the country’s target, forcing the government to implement further spending cuts to bring its fiscal reforms back on track, a senior government official said Thursday. Read more

‘Probably the most negative positive I have ever read’

Evolution Securities fixed income guru Gary Jenkins is bemused by S&P’s comments on its decision to move Greece off CreditWatch:

I have read many rating agency reports over the years and really should have learnt by now not to take them so seriously, but this particular one is probably the most negative positive comment that I have ever read. With maybe the exception of the Moody’s (I think) report on GM many years ago. Read more