How much forecasting, we wonder, amounts to ‘the present, plus or minus a bit’.
Not because it is a bad way to make predictions, rather that if there has been little change for a long time in something like benchmark interest rates, the expectation for change itself is likely to shrink. Eventually it becomes hard to imagine anything much different from the present at all.
Thoughts which arise thanks to Gary Jenkins, Chief credit strategist for LNG Capital, who draws our attention to an unscientific poll taken at the recent European Leverage Finance Conference. Read more
Welcome back, UK readers!
So the weekend that some folk were predicting things would have to get real for the eurozone came and… nothing much happened. Except that Spain really came out and said its banks need help, by which it most definitely did not mean the kind of help that might be construed as a ‘bail-out’. Oh and G7 finance ministers had a chat on the phone and… nothing much happened. Read more
As momentum gathers behind the (deep breath) first loss guarantee on new issuance approach for Europe’s bailout vehicle, Gary Jenkins examines some of the pros and cons.
Leverage aside, the biggest plus point, says the Evolution analyst, is that the EFSF would not have to raise any money. Read more
ATHENS (Dow Jones)–Greece’s 2010 budget gap is expected to reach 9.3 per cent of gross domestic product, well above the country’s target, forcing the government to implement further spending cuts to bring its fiscal reforms back on track, a senior government official said Thursday. Read more