Right, with the warning that we are back in The Forex and nothing is certain, this from HSBC is an unpleasant paragraph for those long the Great British Krona*:
In our view, GBP is the main part of the adjustment mechanism but the adjustment is not over yet. We still see GBP-USD at 1.25 by end of Q3 and 1.20 by year-end. However, we now see GBP weakness extending into 2017 and we now forecast GBP-USD at 1.10 by end-2017. This aligns with our economist’s view that the Bank of England will ease even further, cutting rates by 15bp in November and expanding QE in February next year.
This is from HSBC’s FX team, they of most fervent RORO use, who basically think that if Brexit, the Turkish coup attempt and the BoJ’s not pulling the trigger as expected didn’t rattle the markets properly then something must be up.
To demonstrate this, they take us back to 2014 when things were in proper (and the fear was indefinite) low vol mode: Read more
Upsides for whom, you ask?
For Chinese policymakers, we respond.
As do Deutsche Bank:
More subtly, Brexit indirectly helped reduce concerns of a ‘risk off’ shock from China thanks to the stealthy RMB devaluation around the UK vote. This has confirmed a new-found market tolerance of China currency slippage, at least when it looks controlled by policymakers.
Welcome back to The Forex, where estimates are just that and things can get too mechanistic quickly (do read George Magnus for something more contextual than the below).
From Deutsche’s George Saravelos:
First, we gotta note that GBP hit a 31-year low against the dollar below $1.28 before coming back in a touch.
You can also look at the pound index here, but expect a similar lack of comfort.
But, to compound the ugliness and the real reason we’re here in this post, some longer term facts from Bank of New York Mellon’s Simon Derrick: Read more
H’t to Katie over at Fast for the spot…
Here’s what a volatile DM currency move looks like:
On the matter of London’s bid to establish itself as the fintech capital of the world, well known Twitter and blogging raconteur Dan Davies says:
Which fits quite nice with what a fintech/Brexit report commissioned by London FinTech Week at the end of May flagged. Read more
A reminder of the BoJ’s intervention tendencies, from Nomura:
And yes, they really might pull the trigger — what with Y100 against the dollar being broken this morning as Brexit roiled everything — just not quite yet. Read more
The pound is already down 10 per cent against the dollar, which is totally normal for a developed markets currency pair, but it could get worse.
In summary, you are now entering The Forex and nobody really knows what’s going to happen. That said, for entertainment purposes at the least, have some guesswork from our inboxes.
We’ll add them as we see them… Read more
Please don’t consider any of this financial advice, caveat emptor, etc — seriously, I will grow a beard and flee the country if you ask me to cover whatever charges you end up paying because things didn’t work out in the end.
But, with that disclaimer in place, here’s a sort of risk-free way of trading sterling. Read more
We’d really like to move on now, thanks. Read more
Friends, advisors, clients, counterparties: it’s almost over.
By Friday we’ll have emerged from the tyranny of the Brexit campaign into a brave new world where either: a) things will be the same and we’ll still be arguing about it; or b) things will be the same but we’ll be arguing about it in Brussels and maybe there’ll be less immigration, eventually, who knows.
In the meantime, the Civil Service is trying to remember what trade negotiations are like; currency traders are girding their loins for an orgy of volatility; and the FX strategists over at Credit Suisse are looking back to Black Wednesday for clues on just how royally screwed (or Absolutely Fine) we’ll be in the event of a Leave vote and subsequent sterling crash.
Namely, in the event the Bank of England decides to intervene in the currency markets to protect the pound, will it be successful and can it depend on help from the Fed, ECB and BoJ?
First some Black Wednesday history, chartified: Read more
ICYMI, RoRo — or risk on/ risk off — is apparently back.
It’s not quite at peak levels but that bane of interesting narrative, that supporter of the yen, that acronym of dubious origin is getting back up there:
From BofAML’s FX strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis, do click to enlarge:
The first question is whether there was a lovely new, but secret, currency accord agreed at the G20 in Shanghai in February.
The answer is: Probably not. Read more
Or, pictorially, what’s up with this?
And we mean apart from the whole “hey, we gave you negative rates why aren’t you giving us weaker yen?” thing as we’ve already spread plenty of pixels on a webpage about that.
It’s more about they strong negative correlation between the yen and equities on show in that chart. Read more
This post will be made up of two pieces. The first will try to explain why JPY continues to defy Japan’s negative rate-led demand for currency weakness. The second will add words to this picture from HSBC which proclaims a break in the (so-called, he adds hastily) currency wars, predicated mostly on said JPY strength:
At last sighting JPY was hovering at about Y108. That’s not good if you are the BoJ’s Kuroda or the overarching Abe, particularly because FX strength can beget more FX strength. The question is why did the yen start this slide: Read more
Kuroda et al might want to look away:
That’s the yen being “whacked to the lowest since October 2014″ (when the BoJ decided to extend its easing programme) in the words of Citi’s FX team. It’s now under Y109 having been at Y125 in June last year. Also from Citi: Read more
An important question for anyone who thinks the euro area needs to keep its currency weak to grab foreign demand. Or who thinks that’s what the ECB thinks, anyway.
By Giles Wilkes, normally found at Lex or writing leaders.
So on Wednesday 23rd March, three month implied volatility for the proud pound was 14.5 per cent, which is up a third from 11 per cent the day before.
For an options market maker, such a move in ‘vol’ is a pretty big deal: expected volatility in a market is the major factor driving prices, and being caught the wrong way on such a move would be enough to cause a fairly large loss. But that is not what happened.
The reason for the change in three month vol was rather more mundane. Read more
“I don’t think this is a meeting where there will be some big decision,” said one G20 official who asked not to be identified, presumably not because he fears reprisal from an IMF which advocated a plan “for co-ordinated demand support using available fiscal space to boost public investment and complement structural reforms.”
So that’s probably that for now.
What about the FX bit? Read more
By Nomura first, who are worried that Japan’s economy has taken a dangerous turn — what with GDP dropping at an annualised rate of 1.4 per cent in the fourth quarter and Abenomics being felt for a pulse:
Which is sad, but at least he’s talking and talking at length.
Before we get to that though, it’s worth having a read of George Magnus and Eric Burroughs on Chinese capital outflows, reserves and the country’s ongoing FX trilemma — China cannot “pursue more than two of an independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate, and free capital movements simultaneously”. They’re good catch ups on where China is now and the prospects of a float, devaluation or increasing capital controls.
It’s also broadly what PBoC governor Zhou discussed, among other things, in a lengthy interview to Caixin over the last few days — after a long period silence — and a transcript of that interview is now pixelated and ready for your eyeballs.
We thought we’d aid that eyeballing and pick out some sections of the interview and put a summary of sorts near the bottom. It’s best to skip down to there if you’ve already read the full thing. The extracts are chunky, as was the interview — which you could maybe read as some 10,000 words of PBoC versus the speculators. Read more
It’s all a bit messy at the moment — European banks, Japanese banks post the BoJ’s move negative, er other stuff — but it’s not really clear what’s actually going on.
This seems like a decent list of possibilities, from Citi’s Steven Englander:
We think the following concerns are weighing on the market.
1. US economic fragility means there is no one to depreciate against
2. Too many simultaneous issues and policy coordination unlikely.
3. QE/negative rates have lost their financial market impact,
4. QE/negative rates have lost their economic impact
5. QE/negative rates are constrained by bank profits
But his colleague Matt King has a somewhat more involved, if not entirely separate, explanation for what he says is, at the surface, an orderly sell-off but which hides a number of indicators under “extreme stress”.
Basically, it’s all about bank balance sheets coming under pressure. Less basically, he suggests these dislocations “raise awkward questions about the entire narrative which led to the wave of post-crisis bank regulation.” Read more
Not sure how many more pixels you’ll tolerate us spilling on the BoJ’s move negative, but this from Simon Derrick at Bank of New York Mellon seems worth your time. With our emphasis, and pars broken up for online readability:
Whether or not the BOJ’s decision was a direct reaction to the ECB’s decision to potentially push even further into negative territory doesn’t really matter. Indeed, it doesn’t even really matter whether or not the BOJ was trying to weaken the JPY by their move (in our opinion plausible deniability remains a key tool for central bankers).
What does matter is that four of the eight members of G8 (France, Germany, Italy and Japan) now have an official negative deposit rate while Canada continues to suffer the impact of collapsing oil prices (Russia, which has had its membership suspended, suffers from the same issue of course).
Which leads us, naturally, to a partial Fed transcript from August 1985: Read more
Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina is leaving it to the market to imagine when a ruble collapse will pose a threat to financial stability and force policy makers into action.
So far it hasn’t, and the currency is close to its “fundamental levels,” Nabiullina said in an interview on Wednesday. Other top officials also took the crisis in their stride, with President Vladimir Putin saying that changes in the exchange rate are actually opening up “additional opportunities” for some businesses.
- Bloomberg, Jan 21
- Markets, Jan 21 Read more
From Societe Generale’s analysts over the weekend, with our emphasis, on the fallout from the weakening yuan on the European Central Bank, and why that might circle back (and back again):
Global currency markets have taken their cue from China and commodities, and the resulting shifts are causing something of a headache for the major central banks. Since the low of last spring, the euro has bounced back by just over 9% trade-weighted. Similar moves have been observed for the JPY and USD, with the bulk of depreciation coming from EM commodity currencies. Their status as funding currencies has even seen the euro and yen gain against the dollar in recent weeks
Tips. The ultimate example of “unbundled” costs and discretionary performance-based income.
There are service staff who rely extensively on tips (waiting staff, bartenders, hairdressers, shoe-shiners, doormen, taxi drivers, hospitality staff, street entertainers) and then there are service staff which weirdly don’t (handymen, nurses, airline hostesses, Uber drivers, carers and a plethora of others).
So what to make of a fintech start-up, Xendpay, which would like to encourage discretionary tipping for foreign exchange services? Read more
We wrote — when talking about the ECB’s potential move to a tiered depo facility which would allow a deeper cut than expected into negative territory on Thursday – that Draghi was in the somewhat relaxed position of being able to follow where other central banks had gone before.
We were of course referring to the Swiss and Danish central banks, which are currently at -75bps versus the ECB’s -20bps and have in place versions of the tiered model being mooted for the ECB.
But… Nomura’s Jens Nordvig thinks we were being too casual in our comparison. The ECB needs to be analysed as its own central bank because: Read more