It was about this time last year that we noted how the voting membership of the FOMC would become more dove-ish in 2012. Of course, at the time we had no idea that Jeremy Stein and Jerome Powell would be appointed and confirmed this year, making the committee even more receptive to Ben Bernanke’s decisions.
Surely this made it easier, at least on the margins, for Bernanke to move in the direction of Evans/Woodford/Sumner, which he finally did at the big September meeting (also helping was what appeared at the time to be another post-winter slowdown in the US economy). Read more
Nomura economist David Resler, in a valedictory research note, passed along the following chart as part of his thoughtful meditation on the Fed:
Compared with the last FOMC meeting, the one next week could be a snooze.
It’s a two-day meeting, but there won’t be a presser afterwards or an updated Summary of Economic Projections when it ends. Just a statement. Read more
It’s Fed speech week, but rather than spending much time supporting or criticising last week’s decision by the FOMC, Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota has instead drawn inspiration from Charles Evans and introduced his own conditionality-based “liftoff plan”:
As long as the FOMC satisfies its price stability mandate, it should keep the fed funds rate extraordinarily low until the unemployment rate has fallen below 5.5 percent. … Read more
Among the stealth victories won by Ben Bernanke last week was that he made it easier to neutralise a hawkish shift within the FOMC into the future.
Tim Duy has it right, we think, and now that the post-meeting speech wars have begun, it’s worth taking a closer look. Read more
A cheat sheet for the hawk-dove breakdown on the FOMC (click to enlarge, via Credit Suisse):
What an intriguing day for monetary policy.
Others have rightly noted that this is a step towards the recommendations of Michael Woodford and, perhaps, NGDP level targeting. (And Tyler is right: don’t forget Scott Sumner in all this). Read more
Tune in at 2:05pm EST (7:05pm in London) today for a special edition of US Markets Live and join the rabble to watch The Bearded One be questioned by our colleagues in the media.
Our preview of today’s Fed activity is here, and we also recommend Robin “Hip Specs” Harding’s post at Money Supply. Read more
In a great post over at Money Supply, Robin Harding explains the main source of suspense for today’s FOMC statement and presser (our emphasis):
For me, the question of what the Fed will do is far less interesting – and far less in doubt – than how the Fed will do it. This will not be a pro forma repeat of previous actions. As Mr Bernanke’s speech shows, the Fed is trying to address grave concerns about the labour market. The crucial issue is whether and how they tie any action to the state of the economy. Read more
It’s what you’ve been waiting for. Read more
There was a seemingly minor item in the FOMC minutes released yesterday that didn’t get much attention but that, naturally, interested us quite a bit.
The participants noted that the Fed staff had presented an analysis showing “substantial capacity for additional purchases without disrupting market functioning”. But the staff part of the minutes offered no details of this analysis. Read more
A couple of charts from Barclays economists showing the relative contribution of food to headline and core CPI:
The biggest change is in the very first paragraph. In June the Fed had written that the economy “has been expanding moderately”. Now economic activity has “decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year.” Read more
You can consider this a preview of both next week’s meeting and the one in September, as various reports have indicated that he Fed may wish to wait for more economic data before deciding what to do next.
As usual we won’t play the percentages; instead we’ll just run through the possibilities and list a few of the potential complicating factors involved with each of them. Read more
I guess I would add to that, though, that, you know, each of these nonstandard programs does have various costs and risks associated with it with respect to market functioning, with respect to financial stability, with respect to the exit process, and so I don’t think they should be launched lightly. I think there should be some conviction that they’re needed, but if we do come to that conviction, then we’ll take those additional steps.
– Ben Bernanke on further unconventional Fed measures, at June’s FOMC presser. (Page 8 here, in response to Binyamin Appelbaum’s question.) Read more
The wait is finally over (well, not entirely — the new Statement of Economic Projections will be out later and we’ll have much more during US Markets Live starting at 2:10pm), and the headline news is that Operation Twist has been extended through the end of the year.
We’ll also have rolling updates to this post, but for now: Read more
Supply and liquidity, to name two obstacles for an extension of the Fed’s policy of selling short-end Treasuries and buying long-dated ones.
Doesn’t mean they’re insurmountable, only that it will be a little more complicated this time should the US central bank take this route. Read more
Ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, and as the G20 tries to preemptively assuage global markets with the kind of enthusiastically meaningless statements in which it specialises…
Since the last FOMC meeting we’ve had two disappointing US payroll reports, declining measures of inflation and inflation expectations, worries that growth in emerging markets has slowed more than anticipated, and Europe… well, how much time have you got? Read more
From the WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath:
Disappointing U.S. economic data, new strains in financial markets and deepening worries about Europe’s fiscal crisis have prompted a shift at the Federal Reserve, putting back on the table the possibility of action to spur the recovery. Read more
Here’s one visual way to see the disconnect between the hawkish shift in the FOMC’s new federal funds rate projections and the steadfast dovishness of the statement itself, which preserved the late-2014 language.
From Credit Suisse: Read more
Just a quick run-through here.
Nomura: Read more
Ben Bernanke, March 2010:
That will sound awfully familiar to anyone who listened in to the presser earlier on Wednesday afternoon. Bernanke essentially reiterated the same idea in response to a question asking why he wouldn’t tolerate a period of catch-up inflation higher than two per cent if it would further reduce unemployment. Read more
Holy hawkish shift! Two of the FOMC members who previously forecasted that tightening wouldn’t begin until after 2014 have shifted their votes to that year.
Projections for inflation and growth have also been revised higher. It’s odd therefore, that the statement itself continues to use the late-2014 language — though this is probably just a reflection of the fact that Bernanke/Yellen/Dudley are 1) still more dove-ish than the median member, and 2) hold the cards. Just a guess. Read more
Join us at 2:10pm EST (7:10pm in London) for our live coverage of today’s Fed presser.
We’ll do a quick recap of the statement and have a look at the new economic and fed funds projections before the presser begins at 2:15pm. Read more
Yep, nearly time to start talking about the next FOMC meeting, a two-day affair that begins this Tuesday.
Any big decisions regarding further quantitative easing are more likely to be taken later, closer to when Operation Twist is scheduled to end in mid-June. (Expect to see more stories using the “wait-and-see mode” formulation.) But on the schedule is the second iteration of the individual participants’ federal funds rate projections, and that could be interesting. Read more
Nothing was decided in the March 13 FOMC statement, though it did include the Fed’s cautious recognition that the prospects for the US economy had improved since the start of the year.
But the minutes from the meeting, set to be released on Tuesday at 2pm EST, are likely to scrutinised carefully for any discussion of what the Fed might do next. Read more
To be filed under “events notably lacking in eventfulness”.
Any interesting revelations from tomorrow’s FOMC meeting probably won’t come in the statement; we’ll have to wait for the minutes (to be released April 3rd) to know if there was further chatter about more QE, sterilised or otherwise. Read more
Given the recent improving economic data in the US, the consensus likelihood of getting QE3 later this year seems to have gone from probable to uncertain.
Obviously it all depends on what happens in the next few months, with particular emphasis on employment trends and inflation expectations. For his part, Bernanke certainly hasn’t done anything to dismiss the notion that he’d like to keep going, emphasising the influence of the depressed housing market and arguing that the unemployment rate understates the true severity of problems in the labour market. Read more
(Chart via RBC.) Read more
The obvious place to start when discussing the impact of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting on US banks is with the downward pressure on net interest margins that will result from the extended period of low rates.
A short, helpful note from Nomura’s Brian Foran breaks down the issue into various components, and we’ll present each in order. Read more