Posts tagged 'FOMC'

FOMC minutes to the April 30 / May 1 meeting

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| May 22 20:04 | Comment |

Highlights follow, beginning with inflation:

Both headline and core PCE inflation in the first quarter came in below the Committee’s longer-run goal of 2 percent, but these recent lower readings appeared to be due, in part, to temporary factors; other measures of inflation as well as inflation expectations had remained more stable. Accordingly, participants generally continued to expect that inflation would move closer to the 2 percent objective over the medium run. Nonetheless, a number of participants expressed concern that inflation was below the Committee’s target and stressed that future price developments bore careful watching. Read more

Bernanke’s employment dashboard

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Mar 21 13:52 | Comment |

I would say that we will be looking for sustained improvement in a range of key labor market indicators, including obviously, payrolls, unemployment rate, but also others like the hiring rate, claims for unemployment insurance, quit rates, wage rates and so on, looking for sustained improvement across a range of indicators, and in a way that is taking place throughout the economy.

– Ben Bernanke, during Wednesday’s presser, when asked which indicators he would consider when deciding when it was time to end or slow the pace of asset purchases. Read more

Stability and the Fed

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Mar 20 10:00 | Comment |

During the presser following last June’s FOMC meeting, Ben Bernanke cautioned that another round of QE shouldn’t be undertaken lightly because it may have “various costs and risks associated with it with respect to market functioning, with respect to financial stability, with respect to the exit process”.

The next round was launched in September, of course — after (though certainly not just because of) Fed staff economists presented an analysis to the FOMC concluding that there was “substantial capacity for additional purchases without disrupting market functioning”. Read more

Rational nerdiness vs macho bada$$ery in monetary policy

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Feb 20 18:46 | Comment |

From a terrific post by Andy Harless:

Machismo is a type of commitment mechanism. Read more

2007 FOMC transcripts: a few more excerpts

| Jan 18 16:53 | Comment |

The quotes below speak for themselves, and if you’re on Twitter then check out the #FOMC hashtag, where the gang at the NYT and a few others have rolling updates as they make their way through the statements.

Our earlier post is here, and emphasis ours in each excerpt…

Stockton (chief economist), September: Read more

From subprime to crisis: the Fed’s 2007 transcripts

Joseph joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010. He likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

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| Jan 18 15:39 | Comment |

MR. KOHN. Before we get illegal here, I am honored and pleased to nominate Ben Bernanke to be Chairman of the Committee…

They’re all here, released on Friday: transcripts of previously secret Fed meetings in the first year of the credit crisis. Read more

Coming soon: the 2007 FOMC transcripts

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Jan 18 10:56 | Comment |

Neil Irwin of Wonkblog has an excellent preview of what to expect when the Fed releases the transcripts from the 2007 FOMC meetings. (The Fed doesn’t say in advance when they’ll be posted, but we’re expecting them anytime now, possibly even today.) Read more

More on “substantially” and the Fed

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Jan 17 12:51 | Comment |

We still think the minutes of the December FOMC meeting — specifically their revelation that “several” committee members believe asset purchases should be slowed or stopped by the end of this year — were wrongly interpreted by some as a hawkish shift.

Bernanke explained at the September presser that asset purchases, purpose of which he said was “to increase the near-term momentum of the economy”, would continue until the outlook for labour markets had improved “substantially”. Read more

FOMC minutes: hawkish hints, but not really

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Jan 03 20:31 | Comment |

These minutes are for the meeting at which the Fed announced its switch to a version of the Evans’ Rule. While that change was expected, it wasn’t expected to be made as soon as it ultimately was.

The most interesting bit from the minutes below in bold, followed by some quick commentary. Read more

Reminder: US Markets Live special edition, Bernanke presser

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Dec 12 2012 18:45 | Comment |

We’re starting at 2:10pm EST (7:10pm in London) at the usual place.

We were puzzled a few weeks ago as to why Charles Evans had changed his eponymous rule from 7/3 to 6.5/3.5. Turns out he might have just been aligning himself with what was coming.

Today the FOMC abandoned using a calendar date (most recently mid-2015) as its approximate guide to when it would begin raising rates. Instead:  Read more

FOMC statement, 12 December 2012

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Dec 12 2012 17:43 | Comment |

Expected changes, unexpectedly soon. Not just the widely anticipated announcement that the Fed would continue buying long-end Treasuries after the end of Twist, but also a switch from using a calendar date (previously set at mid-2015) to economic objectives for estimating approximately when the committee will raise rates in the future.

We’ve highlighted the important lines in the statement below, and we’ll have more coverage later: Read more

Dove, actually (the sequel)

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Nov 29 2012 21:39 | Comment |

It was about this time last year that we noted how the voting membership of the FOMC would become more dove-ish in 2012. Of course, at the time we had no idea that Jeremy Stein and Jerome Powell would be appointed and confirmed this year, making the committee even more receptive to Ben Bernanke’s decisions.

Surely this made it easier, at least on the margins, for Bernanke to move in the direction of Evans/Woodford/Sumner, which he finally did at the big September meeting (also helping was what appeared at the time to be another post-winter slowdown in the US economy). Read more

The Fed’s dissenters

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Nov 05 2012 20:30 | Comment |

Nomura economist David Resler, in a valedictory research note, passed along the following chart as part of his thoughtful meditation on the Fed:

 Read more

Early FOMC preview

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Oct 19 2012 20:00 | Comment |

Compared with the last FOMC meeting, the one next week could be a snooze.

It’s a two-day meeting, but there won’t be a presser afterwards or an updated Summary of Economic Projections when it ends. Just a statement. Read more

The Kocherlakota Rule

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Sep 20 2012 21:32 | Comment |

It’s Fed speech week, but rather than spending much time supporting or criticising last week’s decision by the FOMC, Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota has instead drawn inspiration from Charles Evans and introduced his own conditionality-based “liftoff plan”:

As long as the FOMC satisfies its price stability mandate, it should keep the fed funds rate extraordinarily low until the unemployment rate has fallen below 5.5 percent. … Read more

Despite all their rage, still just hawks in a cage

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Sep 19 2012 21:27 | Comment |

Among the stealth victories won by Ben Bernanke last week was that he made it easier to neutralise a hawkish shift within the FOMC into the future.

Tim Duy has it right, we think, and now that the post-meeting speech wars have begun, it’s worth taking a closer look. Read more

FOMC doves speak first

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Sep 18 2012 19:16 | Comment |

A cheat sheet for the hawk-dove breakdown on the FOMC (click to enlarge, via Credit Suisse):

 Read more

The day after: lingering thoughts and questions about QE3

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Sep 14 2012 09:24 | Comment |

What an intriguing day for monetary policy.

Others have rightly noted that this is a step towards the recommendations of Michael Woodford and, perhaps, NGDP level targeting. (And Tyler is right: don’t forget Scott Sumner in all this). Read more

US Markets Live today, Bernanke presser special edition

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Sep 13 2012 14:59 | Comment |

Tune in at 2:05pm EST (7:05pm in London) today for a special edition of US Markets Live and join the rabble to watch The Bearded One be questioned by our colleagues in the media.

Our preview of today’s Fed activity is here, and we also recommend Robin “Hip Specs” Harding’s post at Money Supply. Read more

Preview for 13 September 2012 FOMC statement and presser

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Sep 13 2012 09:29 | Comment |

In a great post over at Money Supply, Robin Harding explains the main source of suspense for today’s FOMC statement and presser (our emphasis):

For me, the question of what the Fed will do is far less interesting – and far less in doubt – than how the Fed will do it. This will not be a pro forma repeat of previous actions. As Mr Bernanke’s speech shows, the Fed is trying to address grave concerns about the labour market. The crucial issue is whether and how they tie any action to the state of the economy. Read more

And this one time, at economist camp…

| Aug 31 2012 10:54 | Comment |

It’s Friday.

It’s what you’ve been waiting for. Read more

Minutes minutiae and open(-ended) questions

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Aug 23 2012 22:38 | Comment |

There was a seemingly minor item in the FOMC minutes released yesterday that didn’t get much attention but that, naturally, interested us quite a bit.

The participants noted that the Fed staff had presented an analysis showing “substantial capacity for additional purchases without disrupting market functioning”. But the staff part of the minutes offered no details of this analysis. Read more

No grain, no pain

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Aug 15 2012 22:15 | Comment |

A couple of charts from Barclays economists showing the relative contribution of food to headline and core CPI:

 Read more

The Fed, pacing

| Aug 01 2012 19:18 | Comment |

UPDATE:

The biggest change is in the very first paragraph. In June the Fed had written that the economy “has been expanding moderately”. Now economic activity has “decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year.” Read more

An early FOMC preview: the menu of options

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Jul 25 2012 21:08 | Comment |

You can consider this a preview of both next week’s meeting and the one in September, as various reports have indicated that he Fed may wish to wait for more economic data before deciding what to do next.

As usual we won’t play the percentages; instead we’ll just run through the possibilities and list a few of the potential complicating factors involved with each of them. Read more

QE3, the market functioning fear factor

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Jul 12 2012 20:57 | Comment |

I guess I would add to that, though, that, you know, each of these nonstandard programs does have various costs and risks associated with it with respect to market functioning, with respect to financial stability, with respect to the exit process, and so I don’t think they should be launched lightly. I think there should be some conviction that they’re needed, but if we do come to that conviction, then we’ll take those additional steps.

– Ben Bernanke on further unconventional Fed measures, at June’s FOMC presser. (Page 8 here, in response to Binyamin Appelbaum’s question.) Read more

FOMC statement, 20 June 2012

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Jun 20 2012 17:45 | Comment |

The wait is finally over (well, not entirely — the new Statement of Economic Projections will be out later and we’ll have much more during US Markets Live starting at 2:10pm), and the headline news is that Operation Twist has been extended through the end of the year.

We’ll also have rolling updates to this post, but for now: Read more

Problems with extending Twist, and one final preview

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Jun 19 2012 21:13 | Comment |

Supply and liquidity, to name two obstacles for an extension of the Fed’s policy of selling short-end Treasuries and buying long-dated ones.

Doesn’t mean they’re insurmountable, only that it will be a little more complicated this time should the US central bank take this route. Read more

F-O-M-C sitting in a tree….

Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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| Jun 14 2012 21:56 | Comment |

Ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, and as the G20 tries to preemptively assuage global markets with the kind of enthusiastically meaningless statements in which it specialises…

Since the last FOMC meeting we’ve had two disappointing US payroll reports, declining measures of inflation and inflation expectations, worries that growth in emerging markets has slowed more than anticipated, and Europe… well, how much time have you got? Read more

Fed(wire) to the rescue

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jun 06 2012 01:15 | Comment |

From the WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath:

Disappointing U.S. economic data, new strains in financial markets and deepening worries about Europe’s fiscal crisis have prompted a shift at the Federal Reserve, putting back on the table the possibility of action to spur the recovery. Read more

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